Apologies for not being around too much in recent months.  I have been trying to fit far too many things in and all too often taking the time to write for BOTW has been sacrificed.

I’m not going to do the usual and try to reassure you that I will be back on a regular basis from here on, as my previous assurances have proven to be as reliable as Mario Balotelli.

However, you will be glad to know I do have a couple of picks for today – and Premier League picks at that.

Slump? I ain’t in no slump… I just ain’t hitting!

If you hadn’t noticed, I have been on a stinking run recently, with BOTW funds under management dropping circa 25%.

The graph below shows the historic fun profile, as detailed here:

BOTW All Time Profitability

This is the second extended poor run of form I have had since starting the site in 2009, and the worst since back in 2010.

Although we do have some very tasty open positions, unless West Ham make an improbably recovery to reclaim top spot in the Championship from Southampton, they won’t see a return close to last year’s high watermark.

Although clearly not ideal, I must admit I am not too bothered by this run of form – to be honest I have been waiting for an inevitable run such as this.

I managed to maintain margins of over 20%, which I always knew was unsustainable in the long-long term.  Overall margin (the average return generated) has now decreased to 16% – which is still above what I would expect to maintain.

I have always aimed to hit 10-15% margins.  At those rates, if you can turnover your betting bank between two and three times each year, you will be looking at a consistent 20-45% ROI.

And as I have pointed out many times before, you aren’t likely to see that out of your ISA, real estate or stock portfolio anytime soon!

You can observe a lot just by watching

Before I move on to today’s selections, I would just like to mention a quote from College Football Hall of Fame coach, Lou Holtz:

“Ability is what you’re capable of doing. Motivation determines what you do. Attitude determines how well you do it.”

I absolutely love this quote and is applicable to sports betting as it is to sport.  You could do a lot worse than use this maxim as the basis for your value search each Saturday morning, although if you are going to fully embrace Holtz’ words of wisdom you really should be doing your work on a Thursday and revisiting your selections on the Saturday to finalise things!

Ability.  Motivation.  Attitude.  Price.  It’s pretty simple when you look at it like that and this week’s selections continue in this vein.

Toffees are sweet

Everton are riding high after back-to-back 2-0 wins away from home, against strong opposition in Swansea and Sunderland, the latter setting up a monumental battle with Liverpool in the FA Cup semi fInal at Wembley in two weeks time.  I am looking forward to this game more than any neutral FA cup tie I can remember.  Does anyone want to give me a price on MOyes and Dalglish having a bit of a set-to on the touchline?!  For some reason I just have a hunch this game is really going to kick off.

Now, in the two weeks leading up to a game like this I would say that betting on either side should come with a health warning.  However, like everything else in life, dangerous things are often highly lucrative in the right hands.

- Are players going to get rested? (Ability)

- Do the players care about the league at this point? (Motivation)

- Are the players going to play at 80% to to avoid getting injured? (Attitude)

I don’t expect David Moyes to rest any players today.  Everton actually have three (!) games in the next 10 days before their date with destiny.  West Brom are at Goodison today, followed by a long trip down to Norwich mid week and then hosting a rematch with FA Cup quarter final opponents Sunderland on Merseyside over the Easter weekend.

I expect DM to make a decision on his league priorities after today’s game, and if they weren’t to win today I think a few of the Blues’ key players might be spared the trip to Carrow Road. 

There is a whole host of reasons (tangible and intangible) why I think Everton are a great bet today at 1.87 to beat Face Rubber Roy’s men today.  Take a look at Everton’s position in the Premier League standings and their statistics and make a mental note of what stands out to you.  Then see how is compares to my thoughts below:

1) Everton (40 pts) are in the middle of the tightly packed mid table teams – only 2 points off 7th, but also only 4 clear of today’s opposition, West Brom, all the way down in 14th.

2) Their next three games are all against their ordinal rivals – West Brom (36 pts), Norwich (39 pts) and Sunderland (40 pts).  These three games will almost certainly determine whether this league season is a success or failure. 

3) Everton have a wonderul defensive record – good for 4th in the League!  Oh, for Demba Ba…

4) Everton have performed very well against the teams below them this season – going 8/6/3/+9.

5) With Liverpool facing a tough trip to TSDS tomorrow, a win today could well see them sitting above their local rivals in the table in April – the holy grail for most Evertonians!

The power of #5 above really, really shouldn’t be underestimated.  Moyes will not be letting his boys relax even 5% today.  They will be up for this as much as any game all season.  And if they needed any more reasons to want to turn West Brom over, last year’s fixtures was a complete disaster for the Toffees.  Don’t think they won’t remember that game!

Ability.  Motivation.  Attitude.  It is definitely all there.

Wandering?  Climbing more like.

The Bolton Wanders players should be given huge credit for both their professional conduct and response following Fabrice Muamba’s terrible collapse at White Hart Lane earlier this month.  From the players, to the manager and the ever impressive Chairman, the club have come out of a very difficult situation showing their true colours – a class act from top to bottom.

The players came out fighting to chalk up a crucial win against fellow relegation candidates Blackburn last time out.  This shouldn’t really have been a surpris – to utilise yet another Yogi Berra quote, “[Football] is ninety percent mental.  The other half is physical”.

It is really hard to think of a situation where a team is likely to be brought together more than the Bolton squad must have been in recent weeks.  Talk about motivated.  That level of intensity can mask any lack in ability on a sports field.

Bolton face another test of their mental resolve today, with an away trip to Molineux to face a Wolves side absolutely desperate for points.  Wolves have really been struggling of late and their defensive organisation has been poor under Terry Connor.  They look increasingly like a group of players that are struggling to motivate themselves and don’t have the attitude to make up for some clear deficiencies in ability.

I can’t believe for a minute numerous players haven’t stood on the training ground, or even on the pitch on match days and thought “Why have we got rid of Mick, only to bring nobody in to replace him?”.

If they do go down, as it appears they will, I think the board have to take the majority of the blame for this one.

For all their woes, Bolton have actually performed very well against their lowly rivals this season – going a relegation stemming 5/1/1/+8 in the seven games so far.

The value-o-meter only points in one direction on this one.

I think they can make is six (and three on the spin) today and I am going to take the 3.3 on offer for a Trotters trot.

BOTW: 2.5pts on Everton to beat West Brom @ 1.87

1.5pts on Bolton to beat Wolves @ 3.3

0.5 pts on the double @ 5/1

I hope we are all well?

I have found the time to go through the weekend coupon and I have four selections that I am very happy to put forward to the masses.

Absolute Value Blues

In a turn up for the books, I am going to make a Premier League bet – and a heavily odds on one at that.

Although undoubtedly a shambles, Chelsea have to be backed at 1.44 to beat Stoke at Stamford Bridge tomorrow.

The job that Tony Pulis has done at Stoke shouldn’t be poo-pooed, however looking in detail at their away form reveals some shocking results.  For a team that are based on battling hard and never surrendering an fixtures, a 1/7/27/-58(!) record away to top half sides since joining the games elite is frankly unacceptable.  The solitary win was at White Hart Lane a couple of years ago.  If I remember correctly, this was directly after a big European night for Spurs at a time when they were struggling to adjust to the increased schedule of big games.  Don’t hold me to that though.

That is good for a loss rate of 77% – which would translate to average odds of only 1.3 needed to have broken even by opposing The Potters in all these fixtures.

It is safe to say that Chelsea need the win and couldn’t be more focussed that they will be this weekend.  Confidence is low, but that shouldn’t be enough of a problem to stop them winning this one.  They are still a top four side in my eyes.

Blades of Glory

My second selection is for Danny Wilson’s Sheffield United side to get their promotion campaign back on track down by wining at Griffin Park against old BOTW favourites Brentford.  The B’s are having yet another steady top half campaign, but it is more the form of the Blades that has me backing this one.

United have lost their last two games 3-2 against mediocre opposition in Oldham and Walsall.  Everyone involved with the club must be absolutely spitting feathers that they have spoilt a run of the quality the had put together for an extended period by bombing such fixtures.

They are guaranteed to be bang on it tomorrow and I think that 2.7 is a huge price – as do many other bookies who go at short as 2.3 for a happy bus journey back up the M1.

I confess – I am Addickted

I will also be backing Charlton to beat Notts County at 1.8 thanks to the incompetence of William Hill.

1.8 just makes no sense.  No sense at all.

If the system isn’t broke, don’t eff around with it.  That’s right Claudio, listen and learn.

Super Sunday

My final selection is actually hanging over into Sunday’s action.

I am backing a resurgent Middlesbrough side to beat Leeds at the Riverside at 2.1.  I think that this game will go off at 1.91, I just can’t justify ‘Boro being odds against for this game.

‘Boro’s oddly suppressed home form has been improving gradually, and the recent loss to high flying Reading can definitely be excused.

Although far from “Stokesque”, Leeds haven’t travelled well against quality opposition the last couple of years and I think that ‘Boro would represent value right into 1.80.

Good luck ladies and gents, happy punting and a great weekend to all.

Cheers.

BOTW: 5pts on Chelsea to beat Stoke at 1.44

3pts on Charlton to beat Notts County @ 1.8

2.5pts on Middlesbrough to beat Leeds @ 2.1

2pts on Sheffield United to win at Brentford @ 2.7

1pt on the quadruple @ 14.0 (William Hill)

I’m keeping it simple today.

I shall be tearing up the mighty Brabazon today so am short on time but there is some cracking value out there.

A quick look at the coupon had my eyes on stalks when I saw Charlton at 2.1 at home. Yes, at home!
Their record speaks for itself and whilst Stevenage have great form against the top teams, the Addicks will be too strong (Johnnie Jackson coming back is also a real boost).

Also like the look of Burnley at home to Millwall.
Eddie’s boys are improving all the time whereas I see the Lions on a downward trend – there is more logic at play here but am struggling for time!!

BOTW: 3pts Charlton to beat Stevenage @ 2.1

2pts Burnley to beat Millwall @ evens

1pt Double Charlton / Burnley @ 4.2

So, having made that statement, I thought it only fair I had a look at the numbers to see how things came out.  Here is a little summary of the results.

Football League results from 15th February 2012

As it turns out there were 19 home wins from the 35 league fixtures that night.  If I had told you that with the average home odds of 2.28, some of you may have figured out that this strategy was a winner without seeing the numbers.  Only 16 wins would have been needed to turn a profit on the night.

Return profile from level 1% stakes

As you can see, the overall return on investment was just shy of 20% (6.86/35).

Not bad for one nights work, eh?

Shame we can’t scratch that out of the coupon on all 46 weeks of the league season – if we could it would result in a 5,520% cumulative profit!

For the record, I certainly don’t recommend anyone trying to follow a strategy such as this and it certainly isn’t one you would expect to churn a profit on a weekly basis.

How did I come to the conclusion there was home value in this coupon?  It’s just one of those things you pick up with practice I guess.

At my first look through the coupon, I highlighted about 10 home teams I really liked and only one away team.  Normally that ratiowould be nearer five homes for every away.

The moral of this idle tale

There really isn’t one.

I just thought it was (semi) interesting – and once I had made the prediction I felt I had to follow it up!

Cheers.

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I hope we are all well.  I have a couple of picks for today that I believe are great value.

My first pick is as simple as it gets.  I am going to back the hottest team in the land, Charlton, to carry on their strong form away at Tramere today at a mind boggling 2.24.  This match up is at most a 10/11 (1.91) shot for me.

Charlton are in great form, and their relative line of 69%/24%/7%/+1.17 is matched only by that of the two Manchester clubs (76%/12%/12%/+1.80, 72%/16%/12%/+1.44) across all four divisions.

However, their form on the road is by far and away the best in the league (11/2/2/+14) – and considerably better than the aforementioned Premier League leaders who have only accumulated a  7/3/3/+14 record.  Let’s have a look at that record in a bit more detail.

Man City – away form 2011/12

Some sterling stuff in there, no doubt about it.  Away wins of 1-5 and 1-6 against your two title rivals should not be understated.

The mean “average” line for a Man City away game this season has been 5.27/3.79/1.97.  However, a mean average line is a pretty useless statistic right?  Every single football match needs to be assessed on it’s own merits and a blanket comparison is about as much use as a chocolate teapot.

You will notice I have low-lighted five of the fixtures above.  I think we can safely say that all five of those sides are “top half teams”.  There is no need to complicate matters any more than that and get into a subjective debate.

I think it is also safe to assume that Chalrton’s opposition today, Tranmere, are not a top half team.  So it would make sense to exclude these games from our analysis.

However, to be on the safe side, lets throw everyone else into the mix.

No need to get the calculator out – I’ve done the hard yards for you.  Manchester City’s average price against the remaining sides is a measly 1.54 .  Incidentally, if you had had £10 on Mancini’s men in all eight of these fixtures you would be sitting on a £2 loss.  From £80 staked, that is a -3% ROI.  Seems like those pesky bookies do know what they are doing when market volumes force their hand!

However, I think we all know that 1.54 (64.9%) is not equally to 2.24 (44.6%).  As discussed, City have won 54% of their away games, and 63% against the eight non-premium sides above.

Charlton have won 11 of 15 away games (73%) and 6 of 8 against lower half teams (75%).

Tranmere are 0/5/3/-4 against top half teams at Prenton Park this season, so I see no reason for Chris Powell’s men to be odds against today.

The Posh vs The Cider Army 

My second pick of the day is for SAF junior’s youthful Peterborough side to get back on track with a win against Bristol City at London Road.  At first glance, the Posh have been on a terrible run 0/3/4/+9 – and as such they are a chunky 2.38 to take the three points.

However, draws with Middlesbrough, Birmingham and Burnley are excellent results.  And losses away at Hull and Cardiff are more than understandable.  Even the single goal defeat to a rejuvenated Brighton side is explainable.  So only the heavy defeat to Portsmouth is a real disappointment in my eyes.

Ferguson’s men score goals for fun and they are averaging 2.00 goals a game at home – good for 3rd in the league.  However, they aren’t entrenched in the lower half of the table for no reason – they do leak goals like a broken gas pipe!

However, Bristol City aren’t exactly free scoring (0.87/22nd) themselves and I think there is more than enough in this price to justify a little tinkle.

Cheers.

BOTW: 4pts on Charlton to win at Tramere @ 2.24

1pt on Peterborough to beat Bristol City @ 2.38

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As I promised at the weekend, I am going to get the site back up to full speed over the coming weeks with some new betting theory pieces and a renewed focus on bringing the value to the masses.  After all, we are all enduring what seems to be a never ending recession.

However, before I dive into anything new, I thought it best to have a bit of a spring clean.  I’m not a fan of the hoover, so instead I thought I would review all of the current open positions and see how we are shaped.

Always use a betting “bank”

A quick bit of advice before I start.  If you are actively following tips from BOTW, other betting resources or betting based on your own research, you really should establish a betting bank.  It is very bad practice to bet straight from your bank account and can lead to all sorts of bad habits.

It is important to note that you don’t have to tie up your capital in betting accounts – In fact this is in itself bad practice and opens you up to a number of risks including, fraud, dopeyitis (see below) and corporate insolvency.  Trust me on this one… I used to be a loyal Full Tilt Poker player… My lax attitude and loyalty cost me a decent amount of cash last year. 

The best way to create a betting bank is to carve out some cash from your savings and put it in a separate bank account to your other savings and current account.  In the modern world of online banking there really is no excuse not to do this.

Having a structured betting bank has a number of other advantages in addition to helping mitigate the risks mention above.  It allows you to start following a relative (rather than absolute) staking strategy, increases discipline and I find even sharpens your motivation to do thorough research.  And all of those ultimately protect you against loose bets, reduce losing and increasing net profits.  And after all that is the aim of game. 

Record keeping

If you are treating your betting bank as an investment portfolio, using a relative staking system (i.e. taking positions of 1-10% of available capital) and taking medium and long term positions it becomes crucial to keep proper records.  Not only will this allow you to analyse your performance and manage your risk, but it will also help you avoid the biggest danger of the online betting world – dopeyitis.

Remember that great 20/1 each-way bet you placed on Birmingham to win the Championship back in October?

You picked up nicely on that goal difference regression?  Nice work.  Spotted the poorly priced fixture list imbalance?  Oh yeah.  You had the balls to put your money where your mouth is?  You the daddy.

Roll forward to May… Birmingham finish comfortably in 2nd behind champions West Ham.  Time to pick up your winnings.  

Now… hmmm.  Where did I place that bet again?  Stan James? Paddy Power?

I know I did it through Oddschecker to ensure I got the best possible price.  But that is all I can remember.

This is a serious dose of dopeyitis, and although ultimately it is unlikely to cost you your winnings, that feeling of panic in the pit of your stomach as you frantically log in and out of 27 betting accounts is there for a reason.  To teach you a lesson for not keeping a record of your bets, not analysis your performance and ultimately not controlling your risk.

Just do it.

The silly tales above ring a few bells do they?  If I liked to gamble, I would bet they do with at least 50% of the people reading this.  I know some of my most betting-savvy friends still bet from their current account and don’t keep records…

If you are going to try and make money from this tough game long term, it’s time to get organised.  Today.  Now.

Home and…

Three of our thirteen open positions are looking dandy doodle do.

We have a 1.5% e/w position on RVP to be the Premier League Top Goalscorer at a whopping 20/1.  Unless you have spent the last six month son the moon, you’ve probably noticed that the Dutchman is having an OK year.  Well, by OK year I actually mean KILLING IT.

Here’s how things stand in the scoring charts after 25 games:

EPL Top Goalscorers (Game 25)

Even if he “does a Van Persie” and pulls a hamstring next week, I think the Dutchman has secured the place bet at a minimum.

You will also notice the name of Wayne Rooney, highlighted and  sitting in 2nd place after this brace against Luis Suarez last week.

We also have the united penalty taker for 2% each-way – also at a great 9/1.  I think I can guess how the bookies are feeling about making Javier Hernandez the favourite in the ante-post markets.

I believe the win for one or the other is inevitable in the event they both stay fit.  And with a decent headwind we should take home a win and a place.

Even closer to dry land is our position on Rooney to be the top English goalscorer (2%, 3/1).  As you can see the international flavour of the Premier League has never been more evident than in the current scoring charts.  Rooney’s nearest challengers are the impressive Danny Graham and the ever consistent Darren Bent.

However, I think they will both struggle to even reach Rooney’s current tally of 17, so I think we can chalk up another winner there.

Looking good

I think there are another four of the open positions that are looking very strong.

I took advantage of some significant “London/Money/Other” bias in the Top Promoted Team market early season by taking Norwich City at 2/1 versus Swansea and QPR.  Although the Swans style of play probably draws more media attention, Norwich have been the biggest success story by far and I think Paul Lambert is well on the way to a Manger of the Year award.  And we are well on our way to a nice tasty winner.

However, things aren’t looking quite so good for Wigan Athletic.  Which is a shame for both Latics and wider football fans alike – but great news for BOTW followers.  That is likely to be another winner in the bag.

Down in the Championship, West Ham are also looking good at 3.25 to take the title.  But given they play one of the main rivals Southampton at Upton Park this evening, the less said about that for now, the better.

Struggling for air

Our speculative 20/1 e/w shout on young Daniel Sturridge in the aforementioned Top English Goalscorer market is still alive. He is currently joint third on 9 goals, which would be good enough for a place.  However, his goals have dried up of late and with Chelsea struggling I am expecting this one to come up just short.

However, Huddersfield’s title challenge in League 1 is fading fast and, without a capitulation from the boys down at The Valley, will likely result in us taking a 6% hit.

Two other likely losers are actually due to one downside exposure – my complete misinterpretation of Newcastle United coming into this season.  I don’t feel too bad about it.  I doubt even the most die-hard Geordies didn’t even expect a top 8 finish from their boys.

As a result, Everton will not be taking the “Best of the Rest” title for once this year and despite the best efforts of MO’N, it seems a big stretch to think that Sunderland could make up nine points over the remainder of the season to take the group bet against Newcastle, Stoke and Bolton.

Dead and Buried 

Two off the open positions are already dead and buried, although one of those was only a cover bet – chances are Didier Drobga isn’t going to score twenty goals in Chelsea’s next thirteen games!  Also floating on the surface covered in algae are my speculative ”one to trade later” on Chelsea making a title charge.  The less said about that the better.

Actually, if I am honest, personally I quite like talking about the Blues’ rapid demise under AVB!  Hurrah!

Summary

All in all, I am delighted with my ante post betting on this season.  You are always going to get the odd bust, it’s all part of the game.  However on the whole, we are set to make a nice little profit.

Here’s to a successful end to the season for these positions whilst we also boost the coffers with a few winners down the stretch.

Cheers.

Only kidding.  Hopefully after a couple of false dawns over the last few months the site will be back in full flow in the not too distant future.

Impenitent

Now onto today’s action.  I would hope I have done enough over the last couple of years that long term readers of the site don’t even need this post to have identified the first piece of value on the coupon.

Man United.  At Evens.  At Home.  How many times do we need to do this?!  Injuries or no injuries, get stuck in.  John O’Shea played nigh on 400 games for Man United and they won most of them as well.  The whole is greater than the sum of its parts when SAF is involved. 

We’ve been here many time before.  Many times.

Go Orange

As a thank you for their ongoing sponsoring of the BOTW colours, I am going to back Blackpool to carry on there recent run of form and see off Portsmouth in the televised Championship game later this evening.

It’s a long way from Portsmouth to Blackpool at the best of times.  Let alone in this weather.  Pompey aren’t a bad side, especially and they have shown some signs of promise under yound manager Michael Appleton.

However, there away form has been poor and I can’t turn down the scraps of 1.81 that are hanging around on this one.

Hasta la vista

Three articles to come in the next week… Cross my heart and hope to die!

BOTW: 2pts on Man United to beat Liverpool @ 2.0

2pts on Blackpool to beat Portsmouth @ 1.81

1pt on the Man United/Blackpool double @ 3.61

Very short piece today from me in terms of quantity – but do not let that put you off the quality of the bets.  I think i’ve got a couple of crackers.

First and foremost, as I know you are all here for the football, I am biting Tiziano Crudeli’s arm off and taking the 1.91 one his outfit are offering on a Burnley win at home to Derby.  If someone could bite his other arm off so we don’t have to put up with the diabolical TV adverts anymore that would be ideal.

Eddie Howe is slowly but surely getting his shop in order at Turf Moor, and I expect the The Clarets to end up in the top six.  They are 7/0/2/+11 over their last eleven games including four away wins at Hull City, West Ham, Brighton and Middlesbrough.  Need I say more at that point?

TrashTV.com

I am also returning to the site of BOTW’s biggest ever win and having a dabble on the winner of the current series of Celebrity Big Brother.  Don’t worry guys, you can just trust me and bet on it – watching such trash isn’t compulsory!

After “Trumpet Sonia” was surprisingly evicted last night, the betting markets appear to have lost their way a little over night.  A few people that I don’t think have much chance of winning, for a whole host of different reasons, have been cut (Michael Madsen, The Twins, Romeo) and a few of the people that are in with a really strong shout are good prices.

I think a split stakes position over the housewives favourite, Gareth Thomas, and somewhat surprisingly, the nation’s soon to be enforced new favourite cheeky chappie, Frankie Cocozza will pay out handsomely in a week’s time.

Take a split position weighted in Gareth’s favour.  I may expand on this one later tonight when I get home – but for now I am off to shoot my lowest ever round of golf.

The magical 79.  Today will be the day….

Oh, and for those of you looking to pay for a big night out, there is a Cocozza-esque long odds pick below that I won’t curse by commenting on.

Adios amigos.

BOTW: 3pts on Burnely to beat Derby @ 1.91

3pts on Gareth Thomas to win CBB @ 3.00

1.5 points on Frankie Cocozza to win CBB @ 4.5

1pt on Blackburn to beat Everton @ 6.7

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I hope we are all keeping well.  I am all too aware that I haven’t been about these parts much in recent months – apologies.

Since getting the site really rocking and rolling late last year, I have posted only one piece in the last six weeks or so.

It’s been a pretty manic time for me and something had to be put on the back burner – I was starting to run out of hobs!

I won’t bore you all with the details of exactly why now, but I will try and put something up to let you know what I have been up to in recent weeks in conjunction with a review of the sites open positions.  However, one thing is for sure – my fingers are firmly crossed that Robin Van Persie doesn’t tear a Michael Owen over the coming months!

However, as a more pressing priority, here are a few quick thoughts on today’s coupon:

No Robin needed – ‘cos they’re offering

My favourite selection of the day is Paulo Di Canio’s Swindon side to win at Rotherham at 2.62.  The Robins are on a bit of a tear at the moment, having gone 12/4/3/+20 since losing four games on the bounce by a solitary goal back in August last year.  That’s an extended run of Championship form.

Ironically, the start of that run was an enthralling 3-2 away win at Rotherham.  That game was the beginning of two terrible months for The Millers – they went 1/5/5/-9 in September and October.  At first glance, they appear to have returned to form in recent months, however wins against Aldershot (16th), Bradford (2) (19th), Hereford (21st) and AFC Wimbledon (18th) indicate there has been an element of fixture imbalance contributing to their up and down form.

Di Canio lost five of his first six away from home to open the campaign, but seems to have got a grip on things in recent months – with Swindon going 4/2/1/+5.  Granted two of these wins were against the hapless Plymouth and Northampton sides, however away wins against Port Vale (13th) and Accrington (9th) give me more than enough to back Swindon at a price representing a 38% shot.

Embrace the January Blue-birds

As I plump for my second away win of the day, some of you will no doubt be wondering if my recent lay off has been as a result of a nasty knock to the head!

However, I can’t get away from the 2.20 currently available on Cardiff to win at Doncaster.  Donny are an improved side when compared to the one that started the season, however that isn’t saying much.

Malkay Mackay’s men have kept an impressive six clean sheets in there last eleven games and have risen up the table to be realistic promotion candidates – something which has come as a surprise to many, myself included.

However, they will know the hard work has only just begun and they need to continue there recent form to stay in the picture in a fiercely competitive division.

The main reason I like this bet so much is that The Bluebirds will be mightily disappointed to have lost to Crystal Palace in their big cup semi final in mid week – and as such I expect Malkay will be all over them emphasising that they have achieved nothing yet so far this season and that three points today are imperative.

A few of the Donny players know they are in the shop window, which can raise performance levels – but not enough to put me off at the 2.20 currently available on the Welsh outfit.

Is that really wise?

My final thoughts on today’s coupon is that Sheffield Wednesday are a cracking price to beat Charlton at Hillsborough at 2.40.

Megson’s men are  9/2/0/ +15 at home this campaign, so to make them a 41% shot is farcical in my eyes.  No doubt Charlton are a fantastic team, but they have slowed down slightly in recent weeks and there is more than enough fat in this one to back the midweek men.

I won’t be lumping too much into this one personally, given I already have material exposure to The Addicks as a result of my long term Huddersfield position – one which I still believe has legs if they manage to keep hold of Jordan Rhodes.

The chances of Lee Clark’s men making a second half run at it would certainly be boosted by a glut of home wins in the division today.

OK, so there you have it.

A few suggestions to potentially feather your nest this weekend (that’s the last pun, I promise).  Hopefully I still have a few readers out there despite my six week lay off!   I’ve got a load of articles planned and in draft which I have had to park in recent weeks, but I am going to make every effort to get the site flying (damn it) once again.

It would be great to get the comments and interaction levels up to where they were last year again in 2012.

Good luck and game on!

Adios amigos.

BOTW: 2pts on Swindon to win at Rotherham

2pts on Cardiff to win at Doncaster

1pt on Sheffield Wednesday to beat Charlton

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I just wanted to post a quick note to let people know:

a) That I am not dead; and
b) That I won’t be posting anything meaning again this weekend.

I am currently sat in a hotel room in Prague (iPads are amazing things) where I have headed to thank Mrs BOTW for putting up with me for another year.

However, all exams and other such celebrations are now over and I will be back in the game for the intense Christmas period. After all, I have to find away to pay the bills!

I hope everyone is well and please bear with me during what has been a very quiet time. BOTW will be back to full speed very soon.

I may have an excess of time on my hands soon, so I will have plenty of opportunity to scour the markets and do some theory pieces.

For now, however, I have beer to drink and sights to see.

Cheers