Very short piece today from me in terms of quantity – but don’t let that put you off the quality of the bets.  I think I’ve got a couple of crackers.

First and foremost, as I know you are all here for the football, I am biting Tiziano Crudeli’s arm off and taking the 1.91 one his outfit are offering on a Burnley win at home to Derby.  If someone could bite his other arm off so we don’t have to put up with the diabolical TV adverts anymore that would be ideal.

Eddie Howe is slowly but surely getting his shop in order at Turf Moor, and I expect the The Clarets to end up in the top six.  They are 7/0/2/+11 over their last eleven games including four away wins at Hull City, West Ham, Brighton and Middlesbrough.  Need I say more at that point?

TrashTV.com

I am also returning to the site of BOTW’s biggest ever win and having a dabble on the winner of the current series of Celebrity Big Brother.  Don’t worry guys, you can just trust me and bet on it – watching such trash isn’t compulsory!

After “Trumpet Sonia” was surprisingly evicted last night, the betting markets appear to have lost their way a little over night.  A few people that I don’t think have much chance of winning, for a whole host of different reasons, have been cut (Michael Madsen, The Twins, Romeo) and a few of the people that are in with a really strong shout are good prices.

I think a split stakes position over the housewives favourite, Gareth Thomas, and somewhat surprisingly, the nation’s soon to be enforced new favourite cheeky chappie, Frankie Cocozza will pay out handsomely in a week’s time.

Take a split position weighted in Gareth’s favour.  I may expand on this one later tonight when I get home – but for now I am off to shoot my lowest ever round of golf.

The magical 79.  Today will be the day….

Oh, and for those of you looking to pay for a big night out, there is a Cocozza-esque long odds pick below that I won’t curse by commenting on.

Adios amigos.

BOTW: 3pts on Burnely to beat Derby @ 1.91

3pts on Gareth Thomas to win CBB @ 3.00

1.5 points on Frankie Cocozza to win CBB @ 4.5

1pt on Blackburn to beat Everton @ 6.7

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I hope we are all keeping well.  I am all too aware that I haven’t been about these parts much in recent months – apologies.

Since getting the site really rocking and rolling late last year, I have posted only one piece in the last six weeks or so.

It’s been a pretty manic time for me and something had to be put on the back burner – I was starting to run out of hobs!

I won’t bore you all with the details of exactly why now, but I will try and put something up to let you know what I have been up to in recent weeks in conjunction with a review of the sites open positions.  However, one thing is for sure – my fingers are firmly crossed that Robin Van Persie doesn’t tear a Michael Owen over the coming months!

However, as a more pressing priority, here are a few quick thoughts on today’s coupon:

No Robin needed – ‘cos they’re offering

My favourite selection of the day is Paulo Di Canio’s Swindon side to win at Rotherham at 2.62.  The Robins are on a bit of a tear at the moment, having gone 12/4/3/+20 since losing four games on the bounce by a solitary goal back in August last year.  That’s an extended run of Championship form.

Ironically, the start of that run was an enthralling 3-2 away win at Rotherham.  That game was the beginning of two terrible months for The Millers – they went 1/5/5/-9 in September and October.  At first glance, they appear to have returned to form in recent months, however wins against Aldershot (16th), Bradford (2) (19th), Hereford (21st) and AFC Wimbledon (18th) indicate there has been an element of fixture imbalance contributing to their up and down form.

Di Canio lost five of his first six away from home to open the campaign, but seems to have got a grip on things in recent months – with Swindon going 4/2/1/+5.  Granted two of these wins were against the hapless Plymouth and Northampton sides, however away wins against Port Vale (13th) and Accrington (9th) give me more than enough to back Swindon at a price representing a 38% shot.

Embrace the January Blue-birds

As I plump for my second away win of the day, some of you will no doubt be wondering if my recent lay off has been as a result of a nasty knock to the head!

However, I can’t get away from the 2.20 currently available on Cardiff to win at Doncaster.  Donny are an improved side when compared to the one that started the season, however that isn’t saying much.

Malkay Mackay’s men have kept an impressive six clean sheets in there last eleven games and have risen up the table to be realistic promotion candidates – something which has come as a surprise to many, myself included.

However, they will know the hard work has only just begun and they need to continue there recent form to stay in the picture in a fiercely competitive division.

The main reason I like this bet so much is that The Bluebirds will be mightily disappointed to have lost to Crystal Palace in their big cup semi final in mid week – and as such I expect Malkay will be all over them emphasising that they have achieved nothing yet so far this season and that three points today are imperative.

A few of the Donny players know they are in the shop window, which can raise performance levels – but not enough to put me off at the 2.20 currently available on the Welsh outfit.

Is that really wise?

My final thoughts on today’s coupon is that Sheffield Wednesday are a cracking price to beat Charlton at Hillsborough at 2.40.

Megson’s men are  9/2/0/ +15 at home this campaign, so to make them a 41% shot is farcical in my eyes.  No doubt Charlton are a fantastic team, but they have slowed down slightly in recent weeks and there is more than enough fat in this one to back the midweek men.

I won’t be lumping too much into this one personally, given I already have material exposure to The Addicks as a result of my long term Huddersfield position – one which I still believe has legs if they manage to keep hold of Jordan Rhodes.

The chances of Lee Clark’s men making a second half run at it would certainly be boosted by a glut of home wins in the division today.

OK, so there you have it.

A few suggestions to potentially feather your nest this weekend (that’s the last pun, I promise).  Hopefully I still have a few readers out there despite my six week lay off!   I’ve got a load of articles planned and in draft which I have had to park in recent weeks, but I am going to make every effort to get the site flying (damn it) once again.

It would be great to get the comments and interaction levels up to where they were last year again in 2012.

Good luck and game on!

Adios amigos.

BOTW: 2pts on Swindon to win at Rotherham

2pts on Cardiff to win at Doncaster

1pt on Sheffield Wednesday to beat Charlton

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I just wanted to post a quick note to let people know:

a) That I am not dead; and
b) That I won’t be posting anything meaning again this weekend.

I am currently sat in a hotel room in Prague (iPads are amazing things) where I have headed to thank Mrs BOTW for putting up with me for another year.

However, all exams and other such celebrations are now over and I will be back in the game for the intense Christmas period. After all, I have to find away to pay the bills!

I hope everyone is well and please bear with me during what has been a very quiet time. BOTW will be back to full speed very soon.

I may have an excess of time on my hands soon, so I will have plenty of opportunity to scour the markets and do some theory pieces.

For now, however, I have beer to drink and sights to see.

Cheers

I don’t have time for an article today, but those wanting to pop something on at the 11th hour I dont think you can do much better than a Chelsea/Arsenal home double at 1.88.

Given recent developments at the Bridge, Chelsea are a lock today.  And I think Arsenal’s style of play matches up well with Fulham on the road – I have written enough about their away play over the years.

Enjoy your weekends all – I won’t.

BOTW: 3pts on a Chelsea/Arsenal double @ 1.88

Unfortunately I didn’t manage to find the time to do a full detailed piece in the end.  I am currently studying to sit the CFA Level 1 exam in two weeks time, which is meaning investing time in the site is difficult.  In fact I hope you would all agreed that would certainly be a -EV move for me long term!

However,  I did use the recent international break to update my database for all the games over the first quarter of this season.

We are just getting to the point now where the sample of data is big enough to consider analysing it without risking drawing erroneous conclusions.

One thing I like to look at is “Level Stakes Return” i.e. How much would you have won/lost by backing Team X each and every week, irrespective of opponent.

This can throw up some interesting results – and is a good way to identify both undervalued and overvalued teams.  That is still very much a subjective process.

Has a team recorded a large profit due to fortunate results?  And therefore they are a candidate for regression?

Or is the team fundamentally under/over valued by the market and therefore like to continue to represent a profitable back/lay opportunity in the short to medium term?

Any guesses as to who are the current “League Leaders” for this overall net return  metric?

I expect the Man City, Southampton and Charlton will be higher up on most peoples lists given their fantastic starts to the season.

All three are obviously up near the top of the leader board - currently lying 8th, 9th and 4th respectively.

The Sports Direct Army revolution also see’s Newcastle above Man City in 7th place.  At this stage in the season, the outcomes of this sort of analysis are still heavily influence by high returns generated from away wins.  Newcastle’s wins at Stoke and Sunderland will both have been particularly lucrative and they also picked up a good win at Wolves.

From a betting perspective I fail to see the Toon Army as anything other than a regression candidate.  If you are getting to the point where you are chucking Newcastle in your weekly doubles and trebles, you could be in for a bit of a beating.

The chav sports tatt retailers aren’t actually the Premier Leagues most profitable team (on the pitch obviously).  Any final guesses?

It’s actually QPR.  Even though they sit down in mid table and sporting their -10 goal difference, Warnock’s men are the most profitable Premier League side, sitting 4th in the league – generating a 44% net return from level 5% stakes, due to their shock win against Chelsea and a good away win at Goodison early doors.

Again, I can smell a bit of regression here!

The most profitable team in the league are down in League Two – Cheltenham Town no less.  The Robins are off to a cracking start to the season and five away wins sees them having generated a whopping 65% return.

You may have noticed that I am rather “down” on most of these sides, and I am expecting regression from almost all of these high flying sides.  The sample space is still very small at this time, and comes with a health warning.  However, if you are cautious there is still interesting insight to be had from the analysis.

A bet for today

I extended out the analysis to include the previous two seasons of data as well.  The size of sample can obviously be replied upon and gives you a different look at the situation.

Everyone’s second favorite team(!), Crawley Town came out comfortably top of the “Home return” analysis, driven by their domination of the Conference last year.

However, this is finally  a trend I don’t see reversing.  They are at home today – to a decent Oxford outfit.

However, at 1.83 I believe they represent cracking value.  I would have priced them up nearer 1.6 for this game.

Well worth a couple of points.

Those who like a multiple

I do have a couple of other positions I like – but both turned out to be in the weekends later games.

I am going to have a further look at these just yet, but those looking for multiples I like Chelsea to beat Liverpool at 1.91 and also think that Tottenham are too skinny at 1.57 on Monday night.  I think the 4.3 on the draw for any game involving a) Aston Villa and b) Alex McLeish should be taken.

In this case, A + B = +EV

Cheers

BOTW: 3pts on Crawley to beat Oxford @ 1.83

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There have been a few requests for a discussion post, so here it is.

I will hopefully be back in business with a decent article early tomorrow morning.  I should have time to have a hunt for some value tonight.

Cheers

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Later than usual I know, but here is the weekly discussion post!

A little bird tells me that Cockers has something he is desperate to share with the world…

He’s been on fire recently it has to be said.

So here is your drum roll and virtual soapbox all rolled into one…

I am all to aware that I am posting this excellent guest post a day late - particularly given the Saint’s 27-16 victory over the Buccs at the weekend.

This is a fantastic guest post from long time BOTW reader “Flash”.

I would like to take this opportunity to say a big thanks to Flash for putting this piece of excellent analysis together for the BOTW readers – particualtly given it is on a topic I don’t cover here at BOTW.

I would also like to say a big public apology to both Flash and all BOTW readers for not putting it up in time for people to have the chance to take full value from the position.

Let’s see how the rest of the UK betting market opens up today – there could as yet still be some great value to be had here.

New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South

Ok so I’ve been reading this site for a while now, I’ve made money from the bets and I feel it is right to give something back. So I’m contributing this piece here.

So let’s talk about NFL, gridiron, American football…you know big men padded up and squeezed into tight trousers running into each other. We’re currently at week 8 in the season and we’re interested in the NFC South.  Here is how things stand:

NFC South Standings – Week 8

New Orleans (“NO”) sit on top with a record of 5-3 for the season.  Atlanta and Tampa Bay are just behind with a record of 4-3 and Oh Carolina are no where with a record of 2-6.

Last weekend NO suffered a shock away loss at the St Louis Rams. If you already follow this daft sport you will know that the Rams are crap.

The previous weekend NO thrashed the Colts by 62-7, scoring more points in one game than the Rams have scored in 6. St Louis played a blinder against NO, maybe they were riding the wave of goodwill in the city after the St Louis Cardinals won the World Series the previous week… Anyways, The Saints are a tasty 1.8 with Paddy Power and  Hills to win the division.

This implies they have a 55.5% chance – and I certainly think this is a great value position!

There are some great NFL stats websites that calculate a team’s chance of winning their division throughout the season.  Check a few of them out below:

Current win probability rankings

On one hand “Football Outsiders” are under that 55.5% figure – but the other 2 sites I like to use are over it.

NFL forecast are quoting a massive 86% chance that NO wins the division. Which is nice.  But I would guess we want more assurance than some website-that-you’ve-never-heard-of say!

Have another butchers at the division table and look at the points difference of those 4 teams…NO have a massive points difference, which is the 5th best out of 32 teams in the NFL.

Although it should be noted that 55 of those points came from walloping the sorry Colts, Blez has previously mentioned the correlation between points difference and where a team will finish up at the end of the season.  Obviously to win a game you need to score more points than your opposition – so more wins the better your points difference.  It’s not rocket science.

So let’s look at the relationship between win % and points difference for all teams in the NFL since 1991:

Regular Season Win % vs. Points Difference Since 1991

If we remember our maths there is a strong positive correlation between win % and points difference.  Which looks good for our new favourite team on +71, and compared to Atlanta on –5 and TB on –38.

NO have such a good points difference at the roughly halfway stage thanks to the best offence in the NFL.  They have the scored the most points, gained the most yards and picked up the most 1^st downs.

At the forefront of the offence is Drew Brees, one of the top three Quarterbacks in the league.

Unfortunately the NO defence isn’t equally as great – but  it is league average.

Check out the stats at the brilliant Advanced NFL Stats.  This site analyses the sport inside out.  And importantly how and why teams win…to sum up passing is much more important to winning than running, and offense is more important than defence. Which looks good for a team like NO which has a great offense based on a great passing game, while Atlanta and TB both possess average offences with average passing games. Oh and the 86% chance that NFL-Forecast gave NO of winning their division was calculated using the s-team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Finally an important point we must consider is the games remaining.

All teams in the nfl play 16 games in the regular season.  Here are the respective sides remaining games:

Remaining fixtures – 2011/12 NFC South

NO have 5 games at home remaining and 3 away which looks good. They’re at home to TB this weekend, which they should win.

They’ve had 3 home games so far handing out 3 thrashings in the process. Plus a bye week in week 11 will be handy to get everyone rested and any injuries looked at before the final 6 weeks of the season.

Atlanta have 5 at home and 4 away. TB only have 3 games at home and 6 away from home, which doesn’t look very helpful for them.

1.8 is the best price for New Orleans all season long and is well worth a couple of points.

ED

As mentioned above, The Saint’s did win a the weekend and are in to 1.67 current best price.  This still seems like a good price to me given the reduced number of fixtures in the NFL – I look forward to the recommendation being reiterated in the comments!

As ever a quick thread for you to thrash around a few ideas and see what you  find between yourselves!

Cheers

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2056476/X-Factor-2011-As-Kitty-Brucknell-apologises-racially-abusing-The-Risks-Derry-sofa-row-fans-urge-leave-show.html

No other explanation needed really.

BOTW: 2pts on Kitty to be evicted from the X Factor @ 4/1

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