Archive for Theory

Afternoon all.

I’ve got a cracking value antepost baseball bet for you today, which simply has to be backed.

The only unfortunate thing is it happens to be due to the increasing rapid demise of my team, the San Francisco Giants.

The Giants are the reigning World Series champions, after a fairytale 2010 campaign.  However, the current squad are injury riddled and materially weaker than last years bunch of misfits.  The Giants have actually lost 5 in a row after last night’s humiliating 9-2 loss to the Minnesota Twins – not usually the point at which you would find me diving in and ranting about value at Speakers’ Corner.

However, the UK bookmakers are asleep on the job on this one.   Either that or they pay even less attention to the finer details of the MLB season that I suspected.

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Evening all.

As promised, I thought I would pop up a post about looking for value on the baseball coupon.

One of the key factors to assess, which makes betting on baseball quite different to betting on football, is each teams starting pitcher.

In the modern game, all 30 major league teams use a “five man rotation”, whereby they use five different starting pitchers on a 5 game/day cycle.

There are 162 games in a baseball season and, barring injury, each starting pitcher will pitch circa 32-35 games.

The starting pitcher has a huge impact on a baseball teams chances of winning – much more than any individual player could ever account for in an invasion game such as football.

A baseball game lasts nine innings, with each side batting nine times.  An inning doesn’t have a defined length – it simply ends once three batters have been retired.

It may only take five minutes and as few as three pitches.  Equally, it may take over half an hour and involve five plus pitchers throwing 50+ pitches if they are giving up a lot of runs and struggling to get people out.

Your starting pitcher is expected to pitch at least six of the games innings – assuming he doesn’t get knocked around too badly and isn’t removed from the game.

The elite top line starting pitchers will be looking to pitch seven or eight innings, or on particularly good days throw a “complete game”, although these are relatively rare – maybe a handful a season for great, durable pitchers.

Once a pitcher begins to tire (normally after 90 – 110 pitches) they are normally removed from the game by their manager (this is on of the manager’s judgement calls, not the pitcher himself) and substituted for one of the team’s “relief pitchers” from “the bullpen“.

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Apr
22

Why aye mon

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Evening all.

It didn’t take me long to find my selection for BOTW this week.  And as it is rather simple, I am going to spend the same amount of time writing about it.

This one is pretty self explanatory.

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After the comments in my weekly post, I thought I would pop a quick piece up on the pricing of the Manchester derby.

Man United have drifted this morning on the exchanges, out as far as 1.99 and with material sums trading at 1.92 to 1.94.

This is a very big price for Man United at Old Trafford.  As context, there have only been eight occasions since the start of the 2005/06 season that Man United have been even money or better in a home game.  Check out the table below.

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Feb
06

Why so blue?

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Everyone should know by now that there are four or five teams around the league that I have a bit of a fetish for.

One of said team’s is Birmingham City.  The Blues go into today’s game at West Ham in the relegation zone, and only goal difference keeps them off the foot of the table.

Alex McLeish has come under a bit of pressure in recent weeks from fans, media and board alike and there have even been a few rumours that the board may at one point have been considering his position a few weeks ago – although I seriously doubt that was actually the case.

I have to be honest I don’t really understand the negativity towards McLeish – or his team for that matter.

Let’s have a look at a few aspects to see how McLeish is getting on at St Andrew’s.

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