Archive for Theory
Keep the wolf from the door
Posted by: | CommentsMorning all.
Apologies for not being around too much in recent months. I have been trying to fit far too many things in and all too often taking the time to write for BOTW has been sacrificed.
I’m not going to do the usual and try to reassure you that I will be back on a regular basis from here on, as my previous assurances have proven to be as reliable as Mario Balotelli.
However, you will be glad to know I do have a couple of picks for today – and Premier League picks at that. Read More→
Scattergun approach
Posted by: | CommentsThose that follow me on Twitter might have seen a tweet midweek in which I said that I thought there was a decent bit of value in the vast majority of the “home” sides that night.
So, having made that statement, I thought it only fair I had a look at the numbers to see how things came out. Here is a little summary of the results.
A bad day at the office
Posted by: | CommentsLadies and Gents.
I am aware I have had a pretty poor run of late here at BOTW, so I thought I would pop up a quick post with some of the thoughts, analysis, explanations, excuses, admissions and conclusions I came to whilst having my own mental debrief of recent events.
The nature of sports betting is such that you can’t expect to win continuously. This game isn’t that easy and I would hope that anyone that chooses to read this site fully understands that.
Over the last couple of months the BOTW fund has dropped around 18% during what is turning out to be a sticky little run.
There have been a few football losses in recent weeks (more on those later) but the main element of the loss was the 10% split stakes position on the 2011 MLB Home Run leader. The biggest chunk of the above was each way positions on Albert Pujols (6th) and Ryan Howard (10th) to make the top 5. As you can see, there are fine margins and high variance that must be considered when opening up bigger priced ante-post positions.
It is important to remain focussed on the process of identifying value and not get too caught up in the results during a run like this.
Those that are long term followers will remember I once had a similar run to this in September 2010 – during that run the BOTW fund fell by 30% and no doubt some people would have been panicking somewhat back then.
However, as long as you continue to identify and exploit +EV situations the next winning streak is always just around the corner.
Lets have a look at a few of the specific bets and positions.
Six more Jewell’s for your crown
Posted by: | CommentsMorning guys.
Six (!) bets from me today – two from the weekend’s coupon and four further ante-post selections to finish off the recent ante-post binge.
First up, lets address those ante-post selections.
The first position we already have exposure to – from the West Ham/Huddersfield double placed on Wednesday.
I am going to take a matching individual 3% position on Huddersfield to win League 1 at 3.5.
BOTW’s Ante Post selections 2011/12
Posted by: | CommentsEvening all.
Apologies for the lack of pre-season analysis here at BOTW. I have been a bit of a busy boy recently and it is increasingly difficult to commit masses of time to writing for the site. And in addition to that it is important to realise that “the game” doesn’t change drastically from one season to the next. All the fundamental principles of sports betting are the same, year in, year out.
And the majority of the analysis I could put up would be in the same vein as last year’s pre-season preview series.
All this said, fear not, it doesn’t mean that I am doing any less work myself behind the scenes – just that you are going to get more of a punchy summary of my views, rather than my usual rambling monologue.
Hey, for most people I guess that is probably even a good thing!