Afternoon all,

As I promised at the weekend, I am going to get the site back up to full speed over the coming weeks with some new betting theory pieces and a renewed focus on bringing the value to the masses.  After all, we are all enduring what seems to be a never ending recession.

However, before I dive into anything new, I thought it best to have a bit of a spring clean.  I’m not a fan of the hoover, so instead I thought I would review all of the current open positions and see how we are shaped.

 

Always use a betting “bank”

A quick bit of advice before I start.  If you are actively following tips from BOTW, other betting resources or betting based on your own research, you really should establish a betting bank.  It is very bad practice to bet straight from your bank account and can lead to all sorts of bad habits.

It is important to note that you don’t have to tie up your capital in betting accounts – In fact this is in itself bad practice and opens you up to a number of risks including, fraud, dopeyitis (see below) and corporate insolvency.  Trust me on this one… I used to be a loyal Full Tilt Poker player… My lax attitude and loyalty cost me a decent amount of cash last year. 

The best way to create a betting bank is to carve out some cash from your savings and put it in a separate bank account to your other savings and current account.  In the modern world of online banking there really is no excuse not to do this.

Having a structured betting bank has a number of other advantages in addition to helping mitigate the risks mention above.  It allows you to start following a relative (rather than absolute) staking strategy, increases discipline and I find even sharpens your motivation to do thorough research.  And all of those ultimately protect you against loose bets, reduce losing and increasing net profits.  And after all that is the aim of game. 

 

Record keeping

If you are treating your betting bank as an investment portfolio, using a relative staking system (i.e. taking positions of 1-10% of available capital) and taking medium and long term positions it becomes crucial to keep proper records.  Not only will this allow you to analyse your performance and manage your risk, but it will also help you avoid the biggest danger of the online betting world – dopeyitis.

Remember that great 20/1 each-way bet you placed on Birmingham to win the Championship back in October?

You picked up nicely on that goal difference regression?  Nice work.  Spotted the poorly priced fixture list imbalance?  Oh yeah.  You had the balls to put your money where your mouth is?  You the daddy.

Roll forward to May… Birmingham finish comfortably in 2nd behind champions West Ham.  Time to pick up your winnings.  

Now… hmmm.  Where did I place that bet again?  Stan James? Paddy Power?

I know I did it through Oddschecker to ensure I got the best possible price.  But that is all I can remember.

This is a serious dose of dopeyitis, and although ultimately it is unlikely to cost you your winnings, that feeling of panic in the pit of your stomach as you frantically log in and out of 27 betting accounts is there for a reason.  To teach you a lesson for not keeping a record of your bets, not analysis your performance and ultimately not controlling your risk.

 

Just do it.

The silly tales above ring a few bells do they?  If I liked to gamble, I would bet they do with at least 50% of the people reading this.  I know some of my most betting-savvy friends still bet from their current account and don’t keep records…

If you are going to try and make money from this tough game long term, it’s time to get organised.  Today.  Now.

 

Home and…

Three of our thirteen open positions are looking dandy doodle do.

We have a 1.5% e/w position on RVP to be the Premier League Top Goalscorer at a whopping 20/1.  Unless you have spent the last six month son the moon, you’ve probably noticed that the Dutchman is having an OK year.  Well, by OK year I actually mean KILLING IT.

 

Here’s how things stand in the scoring charts after 25 games:

 

EPL Top Goalscorers (Game 25)

Player	Club	Goals
Van Persie	Arsenal	22
Rooney	Man Utd	17
Ba	Newcastle	16
Aguero	Man City	15
Yakubu	Blackburn	13
Dzeko	Man City	12
Adebayor	Tottenham	10
Dempsey	Fulham	10
Fletcher	Wolves	10
Graham	Swansea	10
Bale	Tottenham	9
Balotelli	Man City	9
Bent	Aston Villa	9
Holt	Norwich	9
Lampard	Chelsea	9
Sturridge	Chelsea	9

 

Even if he “does a Van Persie” and pulls a hamstring next week, I think the Dutchman has secured the place bet at a minimum.

You will also notice the name of Wayne Rooney, highlighted and  sitting in 2nd place after this brace against Luis Suarez last week.

We also have the united penalty taker for 2% each-way – also at a great 9/1.  I think I can guess how the bookies are feeling about making Javier Hernandez the favourite in the ante-post markets.

I believe the win for one or the other is inevitable in the event they both stay fit.  And with a decent headwind we should take home a win and a place.

Even closer to dry land is our position on Rooney to be the top English goalscorer (2%, 3/1).  As you can see the international flavour of the Premier League has never been more evident than in the current scoring charts.  Rooney’s nearest challengers are the impressive Danny Graham and the ever consistent Darren Bent.

However, I think they will both struggle to even reach Rooney’s current tally of 17, so I think we can chalk up another winner there.

 

Looking good

I think there are another four of the open positions that are looking very strong.

I took advantage of some significant “London/Money/Other” bias in the Top Promoted Team market early season by taking Norwich City at 2/1 versus Swansea and QPR.  Although the Swans style of play probably draws more media attention, Norwich have been the biggest success story by far and I think Paul Lambert is well on the way to a Manger of the Year award.  And we are well on our way to a nice tasty winner.

However, things aren’t looking quite so good for Wigan Athletic.  Which is a shame for both Latics and wider football fans alike – but great news for BOTW followers.  That is likely to be another winner in the bag.

Down in the Championship, West Ham are also looking good at 3.25 to take the title.  But given they play one of the main rivals Southampton at Upton Park this evening, the less said about that for now, the better.

 

Struggling for air

Our speculative 20/1 e/w shout on young Daniel Sturridge in the aforementioned Top English Goalscorer market is still alive. He is currently joint third on 9 goals, which would be good enough for a place.  However, his goals have dried up of late and with Chelsea struggling I am expecting this one to come up just short.

However, Huddersfield’s title challenge in League 1 is fading fast and, without a capitulation from the boys down at The Valley, will likely result in us taking a 6% hit.

Two other likely losers are actually due to one downside exposure – my complete misinterpretation of Newcastle United coming into this season.  I don’t feel too bad about it.  I doubt even the most die-hard Geordies didn’t even expect a top 8 finish from their boys.

As a result, Everton will not be taking the “Best of the Rest” title for once this year and despite the best efforts of MO’N, it seems a big stretch to think that Sunderland could make up nine points over the remainder of the season to take the group bet against Newcastle, Stoke and Bolton.

 

Dead and Buried 

Two off the open positions are already dead and buried, although one of those was only a cover bet – chances are Didier Drobga isn’t going to score twenty goals in Chelsea’s next thirteen games!  Also floating on the surface covered in algae are my speculative ”one to trade later” on Chelsea making a title charge.  The less said about that the better.

Actually, if I am honest, personally I quite like talking about the Blues’ rapid demise under AVB!  Hurrah!

 

Summary

All in all, I am delighted with my ante post betting on this season.  You are always going to get the odd bust, it’s all part of the game.  However on the whole, we are set to make a nice little profit.

Here’s to a successful end to the season for these positions whilst we also boost the coffers with a few winners down the stretch.

Cheers.