Morning guys.

Six (!) bets from me today – two from the weekend’s coupon and four further ante-post selections to finish off the recent ante-post binge.

First up, lets address those ante-post selections.

The first position we already have exposure to – from the West Ham/Huddersfield double placed on Wednesday.

I am going to take a matching individual 3% position on Huddersfield to win League 1 at 3.5.

Lee Clark is pressing on yet again this season and The Terriers are off to an amazing start.  The currently sit second in the table behind Chris Powell’s reinvigorated Charlton side, but I don’t think it is long before the Yorkshiremen are top of the pile for good.

There has been plenty of coverage of Huddersfield’s amazing 38 game unbeaten run down in league 1.  This really is a staggering achievement.  It is important to note how condensed the league games are when you have a 46 games campaign.  Teams are regularly playing Saturday/Tuesday, with coach and rail journeys the length of the country to fit in between.

You may notice that their run has just reached that of the last material unbeaten streak in English football – the 49 game unbeaten streak of Arsenal’s “Invincibles” back in 2003-05.  (ED – Wow is it really that long along?  Time flies…) 

Arsenal’s record in that period was 36/10/0/+76 – good for staggering averages of 2.46 points per game and a +1.55 goal per game differential.

During the full unbeaten 2003-04 campaign they compiled an only marginally less impressive 26/12/0/+47 record (2.37/+1.24).

The stuff of legends.

 

So how are the Terriers faring up in comparison?

Over their 38 games, Lee Clark’s men have put together a 22/16/0/+41 stretch.  That is a 2.16 points per game average and a +1.08 goals per game differential.

Although not quite in the League of the Invincibles, it is important to note that a full campaign at a 2.16 ppg clip would see a side total 99 points – four more than the Brighton side that dominated the division last term.

I had shied away from this bet early season (regrettably) due to slight concerns around their firepower – which were emphatically extinguished (see what I did there) this month with back-to-back 4-0 away wins against Exeter and the a solid Brentford outfit.

But now is the time to dive in.  I am convinced that the Blue & Whites have a materially higher chance of prospering in this League than the 28% that the current price reflects.

Anecdotally, I think it is important to recognise why Huddersfield are still in this League in the first place.

Since finishing 15th ins 2006/07, they have steadily improved – finishing 10th, 9th, 6th and 3rd over the last four seasons.  In the last two seasons they have lost in the playoff final – to Millwall and Peterborough respectively.

The four sides automatically promoted in those last two campaigns?

Norwich, Leeds, Brighton and Southampton.

One of those teams is already holding there own int he Premier League, having managed to achieve the holy grail of back-to-back promotions.  Another is having a bloody good go at doing the same.

And the other team have materially higher resources than almost any other clubs in their respective divisions.

It’s been a bloody funny few years in League 1.

But Huddersfield fans, fear not.  You won’t have to worry about it much longer.

 

So where does this leave us?

We now have a mish-mash 9% exposure to West Ham and Huddersfield.  By BOTW standards, that is about as big as it gets.

But the beauty of this position is that only one of the two sides needs to win their respective leagues for us to prosper.  We are de-risked completely in the instance only one wins.  Here is how the net positions look:

 

Championship & League One split stakes position

Selection	Stake	Odds	Profit	Net Profit	ROI
West Ham	3	3.25	6.75	0.75	8%
Huddersfield	3	3.5	7.5	1.5	17%
Double	3	11.4	31.2	45.5	505%

 

So, if both teams win, BOTW will see a 45% increase in funds under management.  That is a dot com bubble type explosion.

But the real thing to note here that is even if only one of the two sides finish top, we still chalk up an acceptable return on out total investment – 8% and 17% respectively.

For the skeptics that refuse to accept such returns from sports betting, I suggest you head down to Ladbrokes and get your 9 team accumulator on.

And then try and get 17% out of the stock market over the next 7 months.

And what if both sides lose I hear you cry?

Well, then I will eat my hat and stomach the loss.

Even a 9% loss will probably look favourable over what you might get from the stock market as we head into 2012…

 

Ooh Aar

Linking in nicely, my second position involves the aforementioned Norwich side.

Paul Lambert, not content with masterminding Norwich’s meteoric rise from the League One relegation zone to the Premier League in less than two years is now setting about making am mockery of the Canaries status as 2nd favourites for relegation back to the Championship this season.

Norwich currently sit in a lofty 9th place in the Premier League after 8 games, having chalked up 11 points.

I am pretty confident at this point that Lambert is going to succeed in keeping his side up this season.

For long time BOTW readers, this may all come with a sense of de ja vu.  At this time last year, I pronounced Newcastle safe after 11 games last season whilst raising concerns for the other two promoted sides – Blackpool and Roberto Di Matteo’s WBA.

By hook or by crook, I think I called all three of those perfectly.

I’m not going to waste my time going over old ground regarding goal difference indicators – for those new to the site, just have a read of last years piece.

Then head here and have a look at the records of the three promoted sides.  Then have a look here at Norwich’s results map.

9th after eight games.  With a respectable goal difference.  And having played 25% of their games at Old Trafford of Stamford Bridge?  Losing by only 2 goal margins both times?  Impressive stuff.

QPR in comparison are yet to play a decent side and the numbers already don’t look good.  Losing 6-0 to Fulham and 4-0 to Bolton are not great signs.

I think between them, Warnock and Barton (with a sprinkling of SWP) will manage to keep the R’s up – by the skin of their team.

Swansea have started life in the Premier League very respectably chalking up a couple of great wins.  But their away line of 0/0/4/-10 is a slight concern.  They are going to have to sacrifice a little on style for a little more substance away from the Liberty Stadium if they are going to amass the points total required.

 

So whats the bet then?

The “Too Stay Up” market is a bit of a joke, but I think I have managed to find an alternative position that offers some good value.

Norwich can be backed at prices as high as 3.5 to be the “Top Promoted Side”.

I think the Stan James market has a reasonably low limit on it, however Sportingbet and Boylesports markets should be pretty liquid.  

The 188bet price?  I’m afraid that isn’t around anymore… someone battered that into the ground before you lot got wind of this… Oops.  Sorry!

I think this bet is a little cracker, and will be a fun one to follow throughout the season as well.

 

While we are down there

The penultimate ante post selection is for Wigan to go down at 1.91.  This team does not have the quality to stay in the League – which is a shame, as if they gave out the prizes for integrity, respect and playing the game the right way the Latic’s would be a shoo-in for a Champions League spot.

I don’t think people are recognizing the impact that losing Charles Insomnia and Tom Cleverley has on their starting XI.  And the signs early doors this season have not been good.

And if you need some more reassurance check out where Sporting Index have them on the points spread… Ouch!

 

Movin’ on up

My fifth and final ante-post selection (for a while) is revisiting one that was a winner for us in 2010/11.

I am backing Everton to come back from a slow start to take 7th place again come season end – and a whopping price of 5.5 – which represents them as a mere 18% chance.

I’m not overly high on the Toffees, but as ever they have had a “slow start”.

However, when you consider that:

a) They have only played 7 games not 8;

b) Two of those games were also at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford; and

c) A third was the Merseyside derby, in which they didn’t stand much chance;

then I am pretty comfortable with the drivers behind their results.

 

Seven points from their other four fixtures is actually a pretty healthy return.  And the real driver behind this bet is that I am currently “short” on all of their main rivals – Newcastle, Villa and Stoke.

 

This weeks action

My main bet of the weekend is for Paul Jewell’s Ipswich to beat Crystal Palace, at home, at 2.1.

Read that sentence again.  Do I really need to keep talking?  Why are you still here?!

This price is currently available with two bookmakers – Victor Chandler and 118bet.

Most bookies go evens or 1.95.  Some are as short as 1.87.

Personally, I would probably be down at 1.8.  Maximum.

Since tanking consecutive league games 2-5 and 1-7 (to Southampton and Peterborough respectively) The Tractor Boys have gone 5/2/1/+6 – pretty impressive stuff.

The really impressive stuff hidden in there though is that three of those wins were against the mighty West Ham, a solid Leeds side and a the dangerous Brighton.

Draws away from home against Cardiff and Middlesbrough are not to be sniffed at, and their single loss was also away from home – at Blackpool.

They won a tight affair against Pompey last time out, but I think they have more than enough quality on the pitch (Bullard, Chopra) and statistical support to warrant backing them at odds against.

Dive in.

 

And finally

So, you’re telling me we need to talk about this AGAIN?!

How many times…

 

BOTW: 3pts on Huddersfield to win League One @ 3.5

3pts on Norwich to be the Top Promoted side @ 3.0

3pts on Wigan to go down @ 1.91

1.5pts on Everton to be Best of the Rest @ 5.5

3pts on Ipswich to beat Crystal Palace @ 2.1

2pts on Man United to beat Man City @ 2.25

 

 

p.s.

For those that don’t have a Boylesports account, head here now.  Right now!

3.0 on Man United to win at Old Trafford cannot be turned down.  Ever!

Six more Jewell's for your crown, 3.8 out of 5 based on 4 ratings