Archive for October, 2011
The Hawthorne Effect
Posted by: | CommentsMorning all,
What a horrible coupon it is today. On tough weekends like this, it takes a little creativity to find the value – And I was impressed by some of the ideas in this week’s value discussion.
I have just about managed to get comfortable with two positions.
I think I can justify backing West Ham (again) at evens at home to a manager-less Leicester side that are coming off the back of a 0-3 whipping at the hands of lowly Millwall.
I don’t expect the Foxes to travel well until the management situation is resolved and I would have been considering backing West Ham at evens even if Sven had still been in charge. Without him, this one becomes a bit of a no brainer.
Roaming Reds
My second is actually a Premier League position.
I am going to take the 2.1 available on Liverpool to win against former manager Roy Hodgson’s West Brom.
The rationale behind this one is a little more abstract. Liverpool have drawn their last two league games 1-1 (Man United, Norwich) at Anfield – but picked up a good win at Stoke mid week.
However, we all know that the League Cup is pretty low on the list of priorities for any of the big six.
Kenny knows that with Arsenal’s faltering start this is as good a chance as he is going to get to cement his legend by taking Liverpool back into the top four. I don’t think he will manage it – but I do think they can pick up a nice away win today.
Liverpool are yet to go three league games without a win during the Scot’s second spell in charge, a sign that even if he isn’t the most tactically advanced manager he can certainly motivate and raise his team’s performance level when necessary.
The Red’s have also travelled reasonably well under Dalglish in 2011 – they are 6/1/6/+3 across 13 road games – and have produced some big performances when needed including wins at Chelsea, Arsenal and Everton.
Having lost at the Hawthorns last season and Arsenal charging up the table, I expect the Reds to be fully focussed and on top of their game.
I’m taking the 2.2 that William Hill are offering.
The X Factor
Some really random stuff coming out on the X Factor at the moment. Anyone who likes a lay (easy) should be tying up a bit of cash on The Risk not to win The X Factor. The boys are the current second favourites.
But they aren’t going to win – given we don’t even know who is going to turn up on stage from one week to the next. Or what they will be called if they do.
Speaking of not knowing who is going to turn up – it seems we might even have a judges shake up this week too.
Not sure how much truth there is in the supposed illness – or row. Likely all an excuse to stir up the falling ratings.
Odds on an appearance from Simon Cowell or Cheryl Cole to hold the fort for a week anybody?
BOTW: 3pts on West Ham to beat Leicester
2pts on Liverpool to beat West Brom
Weekend value discussion – 29th/30th October
Posted by: | CommentsAfternoon all,
It is that time of the week again. Blimey, these weekends seem to be coming around quickly at the moment. I guess that can only be a good thing.
Will United bounce back and put Everton to the sword at Goodison? Or will we be talking about a “crisis” at Old Trafford for the whole of next week?
Can Newcastle prove their early season form is not a fluke by taking something from a tough game at the Britannia?
Will Wigan be able to chalk up a rare win at home to Fulham?
Down in the Championship, can Birmingham continue there assent to the top of the Championship by beating Gus Poyet’s Brighton, or will there fixture schedule start to take hold?
And who do we fancy in the barnstormers at St Mary’s and Upton Park, where the league leaders face playoff hopefuls Middlesbrough and Leicester respectively?
And most importantly(!) who is going in The X Factor? Surely Frankie’s time is up…
The one thing that is a certainty is that I’d love to hear your views on where you see the value this weekend!
Cheers.
A bad day at the office
Posted by: | CommentsLadies and Gents.
I am aware I have had a pretty poor run of late here at BOTW, so I thought I would pop up a quick post with some of the thoughts, analysis, explanations, excuses, admissions and conclusions I came to whilst having my own mental debrief of recent events.
The nature of sports betting is such that you can’t expect to win continuously. This game isn’t that easy and I would hope that anyone that chooses to read this site fully understands that.
Over the last couple of months the BOTW fund has dropped around 18% during what is turning out to be a sticky little run.
There have been a few football losses in recent weeks (more on those later) but the main element of the loss was the 10% split stakes position on the 2011 MLB Home Run leader. The biggest chunk of the above was each way positions on Albert Pujols (6th) and Ryan Howard (10th) to make the top 5. As you can see, there are fine margins and high variance that must be considered when opening up bigger priced ante-post positions.
It is important to remain focussed on the process of identifying value and not get too caught up in the results during a run like this.
Those that are long term followers will remember I once had a similar run to this in September 2010 – during that run the BOTW fund fell by 30% and no doubt some people would have been panicking somewhat back then.
However, as long as you continue to identify and exploit +EV situations the next winning streak is always just around the corner.
Lets have a look at a few of the specific bets and positions.
Six more Jewell’s for your crown
Posted by: | CommentsMorning guys.
Six (!) bets from me today – two from the weekend’s coupon and four further ante-post selections to finish off the recent ante-post binge.
First up, lets address those ante-post selections.
The first position we already have exposure to – from the West Ham/Huddersfield double placed on Wednesday.
I am going to take a matching individual 3% position on Huddersfield to win League 1 at 3.5.
Weekend value discussion – October 22nd – 23rd
Posted by: | CommentsAs last week, here is a thread for everyone to throw out their thoughts on this weekend’s coupon…
Where does everyone stand on the Manchester derby?
And what is everyone’s best value pick of the week then?
Cheers