Afternoon all.

Long time no speak. I hope we are all well and waiting nervously for the return of the football season? Only 6 days to go now until the big kick off.  I cant wait to have Jeff and the gang back on our screens and the money rolling in once again.

And in case you were wondering (and I wouldn’t blame you if you were given the low level of summer activity) BOTW will be back in earnest from this point onwards, bringing you all the best value from both the weekly coupons and the lucrative long term / specials markets.

However, before we get into all that shenanigans, I thought I would post a quick update on the outstanding baseball positions.

 

Cash in the door

One of the season long bets isn’t really an “Open Position”.  Matt Kemp has already smashed his season long over/under target of 23.5 home runs.  Oh if only Sportingindex did spread market for such things!  Kemp had been an absolute monster this season, and if the LA Dodgers weren’t such a poor team he would probably be the red hot favourite to be the NL MVP.

He might still take home the award, but historically players contributing for competitive teams generally have the edge.

A solid 2.5pt victory this one.  Rather disappointed in my risk averse staking strategy on this one.  Ah the joys of hindsight.

 

Cheque in the post

My second LA Dodger related position is now a mere formality barring a season ending injury in the next 3 weeks.  Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw is having a fantastic season, and again, on a better team he would be well in the running for the Cy Young award (Pitcher of the Year).  The young lefty was named NL Pitcher of the month for July only this week.

He is second in the major league in strikeouts on 177 and when he makes his next start he will return to the summit.

That leaves him needing 22 strikeouts to top the spread – which will likely take him four more starts.  Easy money.

Another 2.5pts in the bag

 

Cat in a bag

Alex Rodriguez has hit 13 home runs so far this season.  Alex Rodriguez had knee surgery almost a month ago and hasn’t played since.

Alex Rodriguez will not be hitting 30 home runs this season.

Game over.

Almost coincidentally, that nets off the profits from the above two bets perfectly.  Keeps the accounting nice and easy.  That’s how I roll.

Joking aside, c’est la vie.  Sportsmen get injured.  If only I had got the staking strategy right on A-Rod/Kemp we would have been sitting on a tidy profit.

My bad.

 

Looking good

The table below shows the 10 National League pitchers with an ERA under 3.00 so far this season.

 

NL ERA leaders (5/8/2011)

Rank	Player	Team	W	L	ERA	GS	IP	BB	K	K/BB	AVG	WHIP
1	Vogelsong R	SF	9	1	2.19	18	115	40	86	2.15	0.240	1.24
2	Karstens J	PIT	8	5	2.49	19	126.2	24	69	2.88	0.242	1.08
3	Halladay R	PHI	14	4	2.55	23	169.1	20	159	7.95	0.242	1.02
4	Hamels C	PHI	12	6	2.62	23	158	31	145	4.68	0.211	0.97
5	Jurrjens J	ATL	12	4	2.63	20	133.2	35	85	2.43	0.238	1.14
6	Kershaw C	LAD	13	4	2.68	23	161.1	42	177	4.21	0.212	1.03
7	Lincecum T	SF	9	9	2.77	23	149.1	59	160	2.71	0.216	1.18
8	Kuroda H	LAD	7	13	2.96	22	140	38	111	2.92	0.247	1.21
9	Stauffer T	SD	7	8	2.96	23	143	39	104	2.67	0.258	1.24
10	Lee C	PHI	11	7	2.96	23	164	32	167	5.22	0.241	1.10

 

As I mentioned above, you will see Master Kershaw right in the mix.  He features in the top 3 in a whole host of categories and for me  is certainly in the Top 3 if the vote was cast today. 

As you can see, the good news is that our selections in this market, 2010 winner Roy Halladay and 2008 & 2009 winner Tim Lincecum are both also in the top 10.

And the really, really good news is, barring an unforeseen end of season slump, Roy Halladay pretty much has the award wrapped up.

He currently leads the NL in Wins, Innings Pitched and Walks Allowed (BB).  He also leads the league in ERA for pitchers with a minimum of 20 starts. He is 2nd in WHIP (1.02) behind team mate Cole Hamels (0.97).

He is also 4th in Strikeouts – which isn’t bad for a “non strikeout” pitcher!

For the more geeky amongst us, his K/BB rate of 7.95 this season stands as the 7th best in the history of Major League Baseball.

Not the NL. Not the liveball era. The history of baseball. 7th best.

Mighty impressive stuff… and highly likely a good earner come October.

That should see a net 5pt profit once you discount for the split stakes position on Lincecum.

 

One final note on the above – note that the Philadelphia Phillies have three of the top 10 pitchers in the NL by ERA. That is quite staggering – particularly when you consider that they place in one of the worst (smallest) ballparks for pitchers for their home games.

 

The chase is on

My favourite market of the year is giving me my money’s worth yet again.

Here are the top 15 in Home Runs in the major leagues so far this season:

 

MLB Home Run leaders (5/8/2011)

Rank	Player	Team	Position	AB	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Bautista, J	TOR	RF	349	33	5	0.321	0.459	0.662	1.121
2	Teixeira, M	NYY	1B	415	31	3	0.253	0.346	0.523	0.869
3	Berkman, L	STL	RF	325	28	0	0.286	0.395	0.585	0.979
3	Granderson C	NYY	CF	407	28	20	0.275	0.364	0.57	0.934
5	Kemp, M	LAD	CF	399	26	28	0.318	0.394	0.586	0.981
6	Konerko, P	CWS	1B	374	25	1	0.307	0.386	0.551	0.937
6	Pujols, A	STL	1B	386	25	6	0.280	0.347	0.526	0.873
6	Stanton, M	FLA	RF	379	25	3	0.259	0.330	0.528	0.858
9	Cruz, N	TEX	RF	349	24	6	0.269	0.318	0.544	0.863
9	Fielder, P	MIL	1B	389	24	0	0.296	0.412	0.550	0.962
9	Howard, R	PHI	1B	416	24	1	0.252	0.340	0.490	0.831
9	Reynolds, M	BAL	3B	361	24	5	0.219	0.330	0.474	0.804
13	Uggla, D	ATL	2B	414	23	1	0.215	0.284	0.425	0.709
14	Cabrera, M	DET	1B	389	22	1	0.316	0.427	0.555	0.982
14	Upton, J	ARI	RF	421	22	16	0.299	0.377	0.546	0.923

 

Three of our five each-way selections for this market are either still in touch, or well in the mix. 

Outside Miguel Cabrera(33/1) sits 14th with 22 home runs, four behind 5th place Matt Kemp.  He is probably too far back to make a run but has given us a solid campaign non the less at a great price.

However, the interesting action lies higher up the table.  Phillies slugger Ryan Howard(8/1) has hit three home runs in his last three games to jump up in leaderboard and give himself a legitimate shot of placing in this market.  There are at least three people above him I would back him to outpace down the stretch.  One more week like this one just gone and he will really be back in the mix.

He is a streaky hitter and we might just finally be getting a hot streak.

Another interesting factor in this surge is that the Phillies made a big trade for the dangerous outfielder Hunter Pence at the trade deadline.  He has really strengthened their line up and is batting directly behind Howard- resulting in the big first baseman being challenged much more with fastballs as pitchers are not prepared to face Pence with men on base.  And interesting  baseball dynamic there for those that are interested.

However, the really excitement in the market for me is the legendaryAlbertPujols.  The big man fractured his wrist last month and was reportedly going to miss six weeks – effectively ending our hopes for him in this market.

Two weeks later the slugger was back in the line up – and mashing home runs.  Quite staggering really. 

He is catching those above him at a rapid rate and I full expect him to place now.  Although highly highly unlikely, is Jose Bautista were to get injured he may even have a outside shot of taking the title.

 

So, where does this leave us?

Well, it looks like we need a run from either Howard or Pujols to secure as a super profit on this season’s positions.  If not, we should be looking at a  marginal profit, but nothing really worth noting.

Given the overall quality of the selections that will be very disappointing result.

 If Howard and Pujols both place, or Albert goes on a bit of a tear… then we are looking at a huge win.

Overall, I am very very happy with my selections this year.  My only error was the staking strategy around A-Rod.  But that is said with more than a touch of hindsight influencing me, but still it acts as a good reminder of where value often stands in these markets – in the young and improving players, not those with increased injury risk.

Hopefully you guys have enjoyed following the baseball intermittently over the summer?  It certainly seems that a few readers have enjoyed the boys rounders. 

 

Now, about that top goalscorer market….

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