Evening all.

Apologies for the lack of pre-season analysis here at BOTW. I have been a bit of a busy boy recently and it is increasingly difficult to commit masses of time to writing for the site. And in addition to that it is important to realise that “the game” doesn’t change drastically from one season to the next. All the fundamental principles of sports betting are the same, year in, year out.

And the majority of the analysis I could put up would be in the same vein as last year’s pre-season preview series.

All this said, fear not, it doesn’t mean that I am doing any less work myself behind the scenes – just that you are going to get more of a punchy summary of my views, rather than my usual rambling monologue.

Hey, for most people I guess that is probably even a good thing!

 

And they’re off…

Before I get onto the Premier League and my ante-post selections, I think a quick whistle stop tour through the lower leagues is in order. Don’t be concerned by the lack of ante-post action here at BOTW. I have my eye on a number of things but didn’t have anything this season that I could commit to without taking in a few games. There seems to be so many “high risk” outfits this season – across all three of the working class leagues.

However, I am still expecting to be picking up value across all the leagues this year – and in fact it is often the lower divisions where you find the largest pricing discrepancies. After all, with only fraction of the money that goes on your average Premier League game going on a League Two game, which would you focus on if you were a bookmaker?

 

The Championship

I didn’t think it was possible for a division to offer more than the Championship did in 2010-11, but the more I think about it, the more I think this current campaign may take the division a notch further.

The division will miss the three promoted sides, particularly Norwich’s swashbuckling stuff – however, it is great that we will get to see Paul Lambert and his troops week in and week out in the top flight.

However, with the cash Leicester have thrown around at quality players (and Michael Ball), throwing in the ever entertaining Blackpool, a Premier League quality side (and manager) in Big Sam’s West Ham and the two south coast wild cards, Brighton and Southampton, into the mix the possibilities are almost endless!

It is important to note that the above quintet doesn’t include the above doesn’t even consider perennial playoff challengers Cardiff, Schteve’s Notts Forest side, the ever impressive Reading and a somewhat dazed and confused Birmingham side

In addition to all those big names, I also expect good things from Paul Jewell’s Ipswich and a Hull side that improved consistently last campaign.

That is 11 sides which I think you could make a legitimate case for to make a run at promotion this year.

Blimey that is going to make for some cracking fixtures. And I haven’t even got to Millwall and Leeds…

And you are still wondering why I have kept my cash in my back pocket pre-season?!

 

League One

League One fans certainly aren’t going to be short on humdingers either, particularly those from the Yorkshire area.

Both halves of the Steel City are in the same tier – and expected to compete – for the first time in a while, and I expect Lee Clark’s Huddersfield to complete a playoff Yorkshire blend.

Last season’s BOTW fetish, Brentford, are also fancied and were well backed before the off.

And my next door neighbours Charlton have undergone somewhat of a squad overhaul this summer and will be there or there abouts.

After all, they do have England legend Chris Powell in charge down at the Valley.  7/1 seems like absolute free money when you consider it that way!

I expect to make a call – and a move – on this market within the first six games.

We might just catch one of the bookies napping on this season’s Brighton – just as we did last year.

Which would be nice!

 

League Two

Paolo Di Canio. Right wing genius/lunatic – depending on your political views.

One thing is for sure – he was pretty damn good in the centre of the park. If he turns out to be only half as influential as a manager as he was as a player, Swindon could take this division by storm.

A great first win at the weekend, but it is still very early days. Day one in fact.

The rest of this league is a bit of a basket case for me.  I cannot get a handle on it, however much stuff I read.

One thing is for sure though – I’m certainly not buying Crawley as 7/2 favourites. Money, crooks and Torres, or no money, crooks and Torres.

LAY!

 

The Show

Right, with no further ado, here is a summary of my pre season assessment of the top flight.

Liverpool are over rated and not yet ready to reclaim a top four place. Arsenal are massively under rated and will coast there way into the Champions League – even sans Cesq.

Man City will be solid – and dull. But will also keep there top four place. However, having been at Wembley myself last Sunday they are in no way title contenders for me.

My other observations from that game were secondly that Tom Cleverley is ready for the United first team – and that I think SAF is about to show you all why. But then the media and Fabio kind of spoilt this so I decided to move on swiftly.

However, my primary observation from the game is that Vincent Kompany is a beast of a player. This man must be top 10 centre backs in the world, if not top five.

Last minute gaff, or no last minute gaff, the big Belgian was awesome on Sunday. I was very, very impressed.

Other players that stood out amongst the crowd – Chris Smalling (now we know why SAF let two of his stalwart defensive options in John O’Shea and Wes Brown go this summer) and BOTW favourite Luis Nani.  I’ve given him a lot of stick over the years – and this remains the single most boneheaded thing I have ever witnessed on a football pitch.

But he honestly seemed like a different player on Sunday. I think SAF might have arranged a brain transplant over the summer.  Trust me, get him in your fantasy football team NOW!  Unless you are in the BOTW fantasy football league that is. In that case, err… don’t!

My thoughts on the bottom end of the table would be that I like certain aspects of all three of the promoted teams this year. So Blackburn and Wigan fans, get your hard hats on. You are in for one hell of a scrap down there.

The Steve Morison’s of this world are not going to go down without one hell of a scrap.

And more importantly – all three of these clubs have fantastic managers. They alone could be worth nine points each this season. The jury is still out about whether the same can be said for Steve Kean.

For those fans who expect a season of mid table mediocrity – see below for my thoughts on Premier League’s gunt.

 

Show me the money

OK, first cash money bet of the season.

If you had told me 12 months ago I would be placing this bet, I wouldn’t have believed you.

However, you should never underestimate the power of John O’Shea.

Victor Chandler are offering a five pooled mini-league specials market and pool C consists of Sunderland (2.88) , Newcastle (4.33), Bolton (4.00) and Stoke (3.50).

The Mackems actually won this pool last year, despite being, well, crap for most of the campaign. I cannot really fathom how this turned out to be the case but the numbers don’t lie after 38 games. They do often tell porkies mind.

Over the Summer Big Niall has backed Mahoosive Steve with a decent amount of cash – and I think they have done a great job with it. John O’Shea and Wes Brown are both proven winners with great experience and a few good seasons in them yet. They are both top six players – even if very unfashionable ones.

Sebastien Larsson is also a top six player. You just may not have seen it yet. This season, you are about to find out.

And Craig Gardner is a solid top 12 contributor that adds something to almost any Premier League midfield. All four of these are great additions.

Thrown in the mix the unknown quantity (at this level) but undoubtedly talented Connor Wickham and I think they have the right blend of talent, youth, hunger and experience to have a very successful season.

The rest of the teams in this group are all coincidentally sides I was short on this season. Newcastle are a basket case and I don’t rate Alan Pardew – apologies to any Geordie readers.

Bolton, after a great start last year faded down the stretch. And in the off season they lost Johan Elmander and Daniel Sturridge, who carried the team in the first and second halves of the season respectively. Owen Coyle has made a few shrewd pickups this summer – but even one of those, Tyrone Mears, has already broken his leg!

Other negatives for the Lilywhites are Lee Chung-Yong’s unfortunate injury and the risk of star centre back Gary Cahill going walkies at any moment.

And any manage that goes about raiding his old, lower league, club always loses a bit of respect and style points with me.

Finally, Stoke although ever dependable and efficient are going to have to cope with a) having a collection of glass centre backs and b) mid week forays into Europe for at least the first few months of the season.

I think this will cost them at least two, if not four points.

Victor my man, we have a deal. Shake my hand. And then do us all a favour and go and tell Paddy McGuinness to stop filling my TV with that blind date dross for crying out loud.

 

Goals, goals, goals

My other EPL selections this season are all in some way linked to my favourite imperfect market – the top goalscorer market.

This is a market I have written about in 2010 and 2011. Check out last year’s piece here for the background. I don’t plan on repeating myself. I don’t plan on repeating myself.

This seasons market is particularly flawed. Check it out here if you want to see all the up to date prices.

Here are the main contenders:

 

Premier League Top Goalscorer 2011/12 odds

Player	Odds	Implied %
Javier Hernandez	9.5	11%
Wayne Rooney	10	10%
Robin Van Persie	11	9%
Fernando Torres	11	9%
Luis Suarez	15	7%
Darren Bent	15	7%
Carlos Tevez	15	7%
Sergio Aguero	17	6%
Andy Carroll	21	5%
Didier Drogba	21	5%
Mario Balotelli	26	4%
Dimitar Berbatov	26	4%
Emmanuel Adebayor	29	3%
Edin Dzeko	34	3%
Gervinho	34	3%
Jermain Defoe	41	2%
Rafael Van Der Vaart	51	2%
Roman Pavlyuchenko	51	2%
Romelu Lukaku	51	2%
Total		99%

 

Five of the top 15 players on this list are Man City players. That’s right five.

Obviously Adebayor is not going to be threatening the scoring charts this season, so he is a bit of a red herring. But least he is in there eating up a bit of margin.

I don’t believe any of the other four can possibly represent “good value” in this market. Can you say with any degree of certainty that any other four City strikers are going to play 25 games?

I certainly can’t. So I certainly won’t be backing them to score the circa 20 goals it will take to top the scoring charts.

I also won’t be backing either of the Liverpool strikers. Don’t get me wrong I think both are fantastic players, but as an overall unit I don’t think the side is ready to be a top three side. And the statistics show that makes them relative long shots to be the top goalscorer. It is not impossible, but I struggle to see either Suarez or Carroll as good value at their respective prices.

Also on this list are a number of players who either aren’t fit to start the season (Herdandez) or aren’t even considered first XI at their respective clubs (Berbatov)

I also instantly discount anyone who isn’t actually a forward (Van der Vaart). For obvious reasons.

So that leaves us with this little selection:

 

Premier League Top Goalscorer 2011/12 odds

Player	Odds	Implied %
Javier Hernandez	9.5	11%
Wayne Rooney	10	10%
Robin Van Persie	11	9%
Fernando Torres	11	9%
Luis Suarez	15	7%
Darren Bent	15	7%
Carlos Tevez	15	7%
Sergio Aguero	17	6%
Andy Carroll	21	5%
Didier Drogba	21	5%
Mario Balotelli	26	4%
Dimitar Berbatov	26	4%
Emmanuel Adebayor	29	3%
Edin Dzeko	34	3%
Gervinho	34	3%
Jermain Defoe	41	2%
Rafael Van Der Vaart	51	2%
Roman Pavlyuchenko	51	2%
Romelu Lukaku	51	2%
Total		99%

 

As I did last year, I will be taking a split stakes position of the remaining candidates in the market.

I am going to split a 10pt position across the entire market – eight points now and saving a further two points for possible cover positions in light of clearer information later in the season.

I wrote a piece part way through last season about Rooney’s fluid role within the United set up, and with the emergence of Javier Hernandez and the addition of Ashley Young to United’s forward ranks his role this season is going to be so fluid it will be bordering on vaporous.

However, one thing is for sure – when he is fit he will be on the pitch for 90 minutes causing mischief in some way shape or form. And taking four penalties during the season. Which is something that cannot be said for Messrs Herdandez, Torres and Drogba.

RVP also has penalty taking duties for Arsenal, however Liverpool’s penalty taker is up in the air – I think the pecking order might be Gerrard then Adam and then one of the strikers, but who knows.

Here is what I have lumped for:

 

BOTW top goalscorer split stakes position 2011/12

Player	Odds	Implied %	Stake	Win Profit	Place Profit	Win Net	Place Net
Rooney	10	10%	4	18	2.5	16.5	-1.5
Drogba	21	5%	1	10	2	5.0	-5.0
RVP	11	9%	3	15	2.25	12.3	-2.8
Total		24%	8

 
And if one of the Liverpool or City boys come through, then I will just have to wear the loss on the chin… What do you think these are – risk free US government bonds?!
I will be firmly keeping my eye on Fernando Torres over the season’s first few games. If he is in the starting XI I will consider covering him off later as a cover bet – and the same goes for Javier Hernandez if SAF is pulling one of his tricks and he returns next week. 

 

Metatarsals? What metatarsals…

I am also going to increase my exposure to Wayne Rooney’s weakened metatarsals in a second market – the Top Goalscorer market sponsored by the BNP.

This is a funny little market this one. When the fourth and fifth favourites are an ageing Frank Lampard and the unpredictable Jermaine Defoe,you know you have a pretty soft market.

This is, to the naked eye (and barring injuries of course) a straight three way shoot out better Rooney (3/1), 17 goal Darren Bent (9/2) and Liverpool’s big number nine, Andy Carroll (9/1).

I fancy Rooney strongly for this market as well – which kind of comes with the territory if you are tipping someone for the wider non-racist award.

I don’t want this article to come across as if I am not a fan of Darren Bent – as I am a big fan of his and think he is a fantastic centre forward. However, given the state of the Villa side and the common style of play of Alex McLeish I cannot see him hitting 20 goals this season.

Equally for Carroll, I expect him to be a key component of both the England and Liverpool teams this year. And in a combined “Goals and Assists” market I would fancy him to be right up at the top of the chart – particularly on a % of team goals basis.

But for me, Rooney has a much greater than 25% chance of taking this market. I would have him more around the 35% mark.

Well worth a couple of points.

 

Everyone loves a cheeky punt

My final selection for the season isn’t based on any sound logic or statistical analysis. It is a punt based on a premonition. See I do have a wild side after all!

I am also going to back Daniel Sturridge each way in the same Top English Goalscorer market at a juicy 20/1 with Paddy Power.

I am not going to lie, I have a dream that this happens. No, I’m not joking. And I haven’t gone mad.

Sturridge has had a great pre-season and is getting rave reviews from fellow squad members (including the Iron Man himself) and new manager alike.

If 33 year old AVB doesn’t have faith in youthful exuberance, what hope is there for the rest of the managers in the world?!

If it wasn’t for his irritating three game ban to start the season I would also have been having a cheeky outside bet on Sturridge for the top prize.

Micro stakes this one – and as much for fun as a profit!

If you are doubting it remember… I did call Dimitar Berbatov for 26 goals last season. And everyone thought I was stark raving bonkers at that point…

 

Let the games begin

So there we have it guys, there are my ante post positions to start the season. It a pretty chunky 14 points worth – and there may be a handful more to come throughout August as things develop and some of the bookies fall asleep on the job.

These bets brought home a really tidy profit last year, so lets keep our fingers crossed our players avoid injuries and enjoy watching the cash roll in come May…

I hope everyone is looking forward to the season, I wish you and your team all the best for a successful campaign.

And while we are at it I will be about to pick off the odd piece of low hanging fruit off the old bookie tree for you.

Game on!

 

BOTS: 3pts on Sunderland to finish above Bolton, Stoke and Newcastle @ 2.88

2pts e/w on Wayne Rooney to be EPL top goalscorer @ 9/1

1.5pts e/w on Robin Van Persie to be EPL top goalscorer @ 10/1

0.5pts e/w on Didier Drogba to be EPL top goalscorer @ 20/1

2ps on Wayne Rooney to be top English EPL goalscorer @ 3/1

0.5pts e/w on Daniel Sturridge to be top Engligh EPL goalscorer @ 20/1

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BOTW's Ante Post selections 2011/12, 4.2 out of 5 based on 5 ratings