Gigantic value bet – NL West winner market
ByAfternoon all.
I’ve got a cracking value antepost baseball bet for you today, which simply has to be backed.
The only unfortunate thing is it happens to be due to the increasing rapid demise of my team, the San Francisco Giants.
The Giants are the reigning World Series champions, after a fairytale 2010 campaign. However, the current squad are injury riddled and materially weaker than last years bunch of misfits. The Giants have actually lost 5 in a row after last night’s humiliating 9-2 loss to the Minnesota Twins – not usually the point at which you would find me diving in and ranting about value at Speakers’ Corner.
However, the UK bookmakers are asleep on the job on this one. Either that or they pay even less attention to the finer details of the MLB season that I suspected.
A quick glance at the current standings would indicate that the Diamondbacks and Giants are almost tied atop of the NL West, with the Colorado Rockies slightly behind but still in contention.
NL West standings @ 22/6
|
Team |
W |
L |
PCT |
GB |
Odds |
|
Arizona |
40 |
34 |
0.541 |
- |
4.05 |
|
San Francisco |
39 |
34 |
0.534 |
0.5 |
1.57 |
|
Colorado |
37 |
36 |
0.507 |
2.5 |
5.00 |
|
LA Dodgers |
34 |
41 |
0.453 |
6.5 |
34 |
|
San Diego |
31 |
44 |
0.413 |
9.5 |
101 |
For the purposes of this let’s rule out the Padres or the Dodgers making a charge in the second half of the season. Given the state of both clubs financially, it is highly unlikely.
I can only assume that the bookies are treating this as a “Current World Champions = Likely to remain strong”. I can assure you it really doesn’t work like that in baseball, for a number of reasons.
The Giants have been obliterated by injuries, with their two key performers out for the season – elite young catcher Buster Posey, who carried the team in 2010 and effervescent second baseman Freddy Sanchez , who is a polished hitter and model professional. Taking these two key pieces out of a team already bereft of offensive talent is going to be fatal.
Add to that the fact that Aubrey Huff has regressed to being a replacement level hitter after a stellar 2010 campaign and the fact that ageing free agent short stop signing Miguel Tejada has been a complete bust and the Giants really are staring down the barrel.
Check out this quick summary comparing a few of the team’s key statistics, with their respective ranking within the 30 major league teams:
Giants vs D’backs – Key offensive statistics as at 21/6
|
Team |
Runs |
Rank |
OPS |
Rank |
|
Arizona D’backs |
341 |
6 |
0.746 |
5 |
|
San Francisco Giants |
250 |
30 |
0.662 |
26 |
The Giants, although they have managed to compete, are dead last in runs scored. Dead last. 30th out of 30.
And that is before their star players got injured…
The D’backs on the other hand are an offensive ballclub, and rank in the top 6 in both runs scored and OPS (“On Base% + Slugging%) – which is a key indicator of a teams offensive capabilities.
Big advantage D’back’s here.
Giants vs D’backs – Key pitching statistics as at 21/6
|
Team |
ERA |
Rank |
K/BB |
Rank |
WHIP |
Rank |
|
San Francisco Giants |
3.35 |
5 |
2.34 |
5 |
1.26 |
5 |
|
Arizona D’backs |
3.94 |
16 |
2.29 |
7 |
1.3 |
11 |
Now granted, here you see why the Giants are the current World Series champions. They have an elite ptching staff – one of the best in the game, and probably a touch stronger than even their 5th place ranking above suggests. However, I would note this is comparable to the D’backs offensive standing.
Now, the interesting bit is the D’backs pitching staff. They are league average in runs allowed – their historic performance over the seasons first 70 games of the campaign.
However, they fair much better in a couple of key performance metrics - ranking 7th in K/BB ratio and a respectable 11th in WHIP (Walks & Hits per inning pitches).
This indicates we could even see a slight improvement in their runs allowed in the second half of the season – another promising omen for The Snakes.
All this shines through when you look at the respective teams “run differentials” for the season:
NL West standings @ 22/6
|
Team |
W |
L |
PCT |
GB |
RS |
RA |
DIFF |
|
Arizona |
40 |
34 |
0.541 |
- |
341 |
323 |
18 |
|
San Francisco |
39 |
34 |
0.534 |
0.5 |
250 |
263 |
-13 |
|
Colorado |
37 |
36 |
0.507 |
2.5 |
330 |
318 |
12 |
|
LA Dodgers |
34 |
41 |
0.453 |
6.5 |
285 |
316 |
-31 |
|
San Diego |
31 |
44 |
0.413 |
9.5 |
252 |
289 |
-37 |
The Giants negative run differential sticks out like a sore thumb. This is a bit like trying to get in the Champions League with a negative goal difference. It is possible, and achieved maybe once ever 20 years or so… but it is bloody tough to do so.
Check out the rest of the leagues here to see just how strong the run differential correlation is in each of the leagues.
The plan
One risk here is that the Giants front office may make some key trades as we approach the trade deadline, but GM Brian Sabean doesn’t have the best track record of acquiring position players at this stage in the season.
If you need some more empirical evidence and to cut what could be a very long story short, check out the data provided by Cool Standings:
Cool Standings playoff chances as @ 21/6
|
Team |
W |
L |
DIV% |
WC% |
PO% |
|
Arizona |
40 |
34 |
46.3 |
4.2 |
50.6 |
|
San Francisco |
39 |
34 |
17.9 |
3 |
20.9 |
|
Colorado |
37 |
36 |
28.6 |
4.7 |
33.3 |
|
LA Dodgers |
34 |
41 |
5.2 |
0.7 |
5.9 |
|
San Diego |
31 |
44 |
2 |
0.2 |
2.2 |
Now, don’t get me wrong I think these percentages may be a touch on the aggressive side. But I think they illustrate the point.
Cool Standings have the Giants as a greater than 4/1 shot for the title. The UK bookies have them 1/2.
You do the maths.
Given there isn’t a material exchange market here in the UK to facilitate a lay strategy, I suggest you back the Diamondbacks now for a healthy chunk. I may cover the Rockies at some point as well, but their immediate schedule is such that I think we can hold off that for a week or two yet and see how the division develops.
BOTW: 5pts on the Arizona Diamondbacks to win the NL West @ 4/1
.
Looks pretty tempting although I have forgotten when the season ends – any help?
Hello sir,
Nice to see you back around.
Season ends very early October mate – so tying up for just over 3 months…
Tough I guess depending on how you gamble for those without a designated fund.
Cheers
I know that this is a big stake in the scheme of things, but based on what you have outlined, and the seemingly large price on offer still this really does look like the bookies have missed a trick.
Will you consider adding to this bet as the next few games pan out, or once you are in a market do you prefer to simply let it run its course?
Blez,
Just read the analysis and have jumped on board. My first foray into the baseball world is somewhat of a leap of faith. I know I’m in good hands though.
Cheers
Cockers
John,
Agreed, this is one of the best +EV % bets I have seen in a while.
The reason I haven’t gone any further is I expect to be backing the Rockies (and ultimately even the GIants depending on how things pan out) at some point over the coming months… so exposure to this might go up a bit anyway.
Cheers
Blez
Cockers,
Expect nothing less of you my man.
You will enjoy following it and should be one we can trade or derisk at some point…
Cheers
Yup, agree with Cockers. I’m in balls-deep on this one.
Always been a huge d-backs fan though ….
Whats your ongoing position on this: the bookies have finally cottoned on and the dbacks have dropped below 2.00 with giants rising above 2.00. Whats the likelihood of giants pulling this back?
Great opportunity for me to do a hedging post I guess…
Oh for a little more time in life!
Did you keep your personal position in line with the roughly 5% kind of level Ben?
Cheers
Giants at Houston is the Free Game of the Day on MLB.tv. Interestingly, Google Chrome informs me that MLB.tv is one of my most visited websites… 6 months ago my only experience of Baseball was reading Moneyball, now I can’t get enough.
Giants may have got smashed yesterday but it feels like time to hedge as I still fear that they could easily go on a bit of a winning streak and ruin our position. I’ll hold fire until Blez makes his suggestion…
John,
Comments like that make me love doing BOTW!
Glad you are enjoying the baseball. It is a great sport when you get into it and the fact it is on everyday makes it really fun to folllow (and bet on).
My Giants are absolutely going into the tank at the moment. Everyone has probably got the point that the Giants have a terrible offense – as evidenced by their back to back shutouts the last two nights.
But for those not following the two teams carefully, you won’t know that the Giants bullpen is currently missing it’s two main pieces – lights out setup man Sergio Romo is on the disabled list and All Star closer Brian Wilson is pitching hurt with a baulky bat.
Also, a number of the teams key hitters are banged up and playing with injuries.
So you can have all the great pitching you like… You can’t win 0-0!
That said John raises a great point about derisking. With the Giants out at 2.15 on William Hill, those that wish to can comfortably derisk their position.
We currently hold a -5/+20 position. By backing the Giants for 4.4pts we can turn this into a 0/+15.5 position.
That looks pretty tidy to me. I’m going to hedge at this point and suggest you do the same, and then sit back, crack open a beer and enjoy watching the Giants and Kruk and Kuip on MLB.tv after MOTD!
Cheers
Clearly your knowledge of your team trumps my brief glance at recent form/results.. but SF got smashed yesterday and Dbacks lost in a seemingly tight match. Therefore, I’ll likely kick myself but I’m gonna hold tight for this little run of games and (in theory) cover myself on monday morning after two more losses for your boys!
Wow, lucky me. For some reason, after offering shorter odds (<2.0) this morning, WillHill just went back to 2.15 despite Giants winning and Dbacks losing.
Doesn't make sense to me.
Bite their hand off and get hedged!
Don’t worry, this time I placed the bet and THEN came on here to illustrate my naivety!!
You’re one of the sharp ones – as I doubt everyone else is following the results or comments on here!
Then they will moan that I didn’t post specifically to tell them to hedge their risk!
People expect spoon feeding
Wow – 4.5 from hills now for Giants to win division. Trailing by 5… but with 6 to play vs Dbacks. This is going to finish a lot closer than it is right now.
Elsewhere, Arsenal are now 41 for the PL title. At what point does this become a value bet (or certainly a bet to lay)!? Granted they are in a bit of a crisis but I would fully expect them to be challenging for Top 4 come May – and just being in that hunt will bring their odds right back down. They’ve just bought the Korean chap () while Mertesacker would be a very solid purchase. Anyone else that comes out of the woodwork in the next 24 hours (Hazard or similar) would also result in bookies slashing this price…
…Maybe this is a false confidence in a young, inexperienced side who lost their star players. But, then, didn’t Fabregas miss most of last season? And while Nasri is being billed as one of their TOP players (no doubting) but was he an ever-present last season!?
Still, this is coming from a guy who though 8.0 vs Utd showed value! What do I know!
John, I’ve been following this pretty closely (first thing I do when waking in the night) and all I can conclude is that this sport is nuts! The diamondbacks come into this next series in red hot form and I believe a positive outcome should see them almost home. Still pleased I derisked to avoid the sleepless nights..
41 does seem too high and is reflected by some of the ofther bookies offering c25s. Should be a decent amount of liquidity on betfair in a market like that too!??
despise international weekends. it’s a good job there’s stil lsome money to be made in the lower leagues..
I’m enjoying getting into the sport – that’s the added interest that a wager will bring to any competition! Hills had them out to 7.5 this morning (no longer available) – not only is the sport nuts, but the significant fluctuations on the odds seems a little crazy to me too. True ARI are on a roll, but if the Giants win the first of three matches between the two tomorrow night, it could be a huge game changer.
I only get to watch the Free Game of the Day, so hopefully one of this run of games will be on.
Old Blez has gone a bit quiet… either composing a long over due “weekly” bet (what’s your Rugby/NFL knowledge like?), touting his expertise to JWH again or perhaps even just busy in the real world! Hopefully he’ll be back soon!
Didn’t hedge this – never mind!! Looking pretty good now at 1.05.
What do they call the “kick off” in baseball? Is it just “the first pitch”? Either way – it is about to happen on the SF – ARI game. Dbacks, one win away from giving us a nice little profit. Pity its not the free game of the day!
Diamondbaaaaaaaaacks!! I have to say Blez, this is probably the most enjoyable bet I have ever followed. I’ve had close to no idea about what’s going on but have loved checking the scores each morning and any other time I wake up for a piss in the night!
Top work mate, few shandies coming your way for your efforts. Really appreciate it!
Now get your head down and get something picked for the playoffs.
Anyone else keen for a diamondbacks tat?
guys, desperate plea here..I can’t find my diamondbacks money anywhere.
I know i got 7/2 and I was pretty sure it was with Stan James but it’s not in any of my 3 accounts with them. I know I definitely got the bet on as I checked it during the season.
did anyone else get 7/2 around the time of this post that could make some suggestions..am running out of ideas!!