Morning guys,

Hope everyone is looking forward to the climax of the season over the coming weeks.  Apologies for not providing you with an abundance of selections recently.  The season has somewhat fizzled out for me for some reason I can’t put my finger on.

I think the bookies have had their finger a little closer to the pulse on the weekend action than usual which has been a hindrance.

And last weekend I was preoccupied taking on a number of the West coast of Ireland’s golf courses.

For the golfers out their my first tip of the week is a new golf course in County Kilkenny called Bunclody.  It was only established in 2009, but for 40 Euros the place is an absolute steal.

Special mentions also for the old links at Rosslare and the slightly corporate, but mightily impressive Druids Glen.  All well worth a visit.

Anyway, onto this weekend’s action.

A number of the divisions have a rash of games played in unusual circumstances – already promoted teams playing for Championships (Chesterfield) against teams fighting for the final playoff spot (Gillingham).

I can’t help but feel odds-against for The Spireites is the wrong price, but I just can’t get a feel for the psychology of this game.  The draw seals the title… but how many Championship sides play for a draw at home on the last day of the season?  None that I can recall.

So one for the accumulator for those that like to dabble in such things.

Stevenage versus Bury is a similar fixture, that neither I nor the bookies can get a handle on.  The market has Stevenage prices at anything from 2.00 to 2.30 and Bury are priced from 3.20 to 3.60.  That is quite a range to still exist on a Saturday morning.

 

Movin’ on up

In League one, everything is settled at the top.  However two of the top six sides could have a big say in who manages to survive at the bottom of the table.

D&R travel to Peterborough (4th) knowing that three points would likely see them survive.

Even a point may be good enough given their superior goal difference with Walsall unlikely to fare well at St Mary’s against the Championship bound Saints.

More one to enjoy on Soccer Saturday than to bet on me thinks.

 

Tier two

Ah, the Championship.  The division that has just kept on giving this season – both in the form of beer tokens and pure entertainment!

BOTW awaits the outcome of the QPR trial with baited breath.  I opened up a position on the Rangers winning the Championship back at Christmas, and I am still confident that we will be getting paid out eventually… tabloid drama or no tabloid drama.

QPR were crazily prices earlier this week at 2.3 at home to Leeds and were all set to be my BOTW.  However, the price has sadly since moved in to 1.95 which is a little closer to reality and I am forced to look elsewhere for the stand out price.

Again though, one for the accumulator for those that enjoy such masochistic activities.  I couldn’t think of a more demoralised side in the entire UK league than Leeds right now.  After being in the playoff positions for the meat of the season, a recent run of 6 points from 8 games (including losses to strugglers Derby, Sheffield United and Crystal Palace) means that the Whites will be taking an early trip to Ayia Napa.

So a nice away trip to face the best team in the division to round out the fixtures?  Eeesh.  Not good.

 

The top dogs

With three games still to play (for most) in the top flight, we are heading down to the wire.

Here at BOTW we keep our fingers crossed that Everton can take at least a point of Man City today and that Birmingham may be able to do the same against a Newcastle team now just waiting to go on their holidays.

Aside from that most of our long term positions are all set.  A number of healthy wins are in the bag (such as Bolton topping 41 points) and a few losses have been absorbed (such as WBA’s remarkable turnaround under Roy Hodgson).

West Ham have a huge game at home to Blackburn today.  I fancy them for three points at what looks like a generous 2.1 best price.  I’d probably have them a shade odds on myself.

However, in the end I am going to avoid all of Saturday’s action.  My selection of the week revisits a post I made in February just prior to the Manchester Derby.

A confident, focussed and well rested Man United are 2.4 to beat Chelsea at Old Trafford on Sunday afternoon and all but seal the title.

This is a stupid price.  Yes, Chelsea have improved since Lampard returned to full fitness.  Yes, Torres has now scored.  Yes, the have won some big games.

But they have also been outplayed for huge chunks of all three games against their Manchester rivals this season and went down with little more than a wimper in the Champions League showdown.

And as SAF put it midweek, United “might have the best home record in Europe”.

And they always represent great value.  If you don’t believe me and haven’t been reading long check out the previous piece I put together in February.  I don’t plan on repeating myself!

Oh, and finally just from me, here’s to Blackpool picking up three points somewhere along the way (except at Old Trafford of course!) and staying in the division.  It would be good for all concerned – Blackpool, the Premier League and all teams in the lower leagues aspiring to bigger and better things.

 

BOTW: 2pts on Man United to beat Chelsea @ 2.4

Back to the OT well, 4.8 out of 5 based on 6 ratings