So, a single Mongoose kick later and Wayne Rooney is once again the Prince of Salford.

Contract?  What contract.  Scandal?  What scandal.

Although it now seems unthinkable, Rooney’s form had been such that there was more than a murmuring (amongst United fans and media commentators alike) that he no longer warranted an automatic starting place.

His somewhat lethargic performances, combined with the resurgence of Dimitar Berbatov and the ever increasing contribution of young Mexican sensation Javier Hernández, had many suggesting that the more exotic partnership may actually represent Sir Alex Ferguson’s most potent strike force.

Berbatov’s contribution this campaign this season has been such that I read numerous media previews in the days leading up to the game that listed the mercurial Bulgarian as one of the fixtures “key players”.

From a tactical perspective, there was great intrigue as to whether Sir Alex would stick with a traditional 4-4-2 (which he strongly favours at Old Trafford) or whether he would opt for his “big game” 4-5-1 formation.

One thing that the majority of the media didn’t foresee was Sir Alex Ferguson opting for the robust 4-5-1 setup, but leaving Berbatov out of the side and using Rooney as the focal point of the attack.

After all, one player is in the form of his life, while the other is supposedly having the worst campaign of his career.  Right?

Well not quite.  The divergence in contributions of Messrs Rooney and Berbatov this season have been grossly overstated by the UK media – and as a result equally overdone by both the football following masses and subsequently the betting industry.

Once you scratch below the surface, it is actually a lot less sinister.

The small print

Before I get into why I think this, a couple of quick points of note:

• Due to data constraints, the following analysis is based on English Premier League games only and does not consider Cup or European competition;
• I am well aware that assists are, for the want of a better word, a crap statistic to assess a player by.  Goals are only marginally better.  Penalties are even worse, and they are not stripped out for this analysis.  They are only two elements of possibly forty different contribution types you would want to consider – see Football Manager; and
• Each individual player’s contribution is, in part, dependent on the contribution of his or her fellow team members’ contributions – and therefore their contributions must always be considered as a whole rather than independently.

That’s enough small print.  You get the gist.

The Rooney/Berbatov situation

After a somewhat underwhelming first two years at Manchester United, Dimitar Berbatov has scored 19 goals in 22 Premier League games so far this season and is currently considered a candidate for a number of Player of the Year awards.

In contrast, after a mesmeric 2009/10 season in which he scored 26 Premier League goals in only 34 appearances, Wayne Rooney appears to have struggled in 2010/11, scoring only 5 goals in 16 appearances to date.

Bicycle kicks aside, he has been below par and up until Saturday his annual highlights consisted of an ill-advised transfer request, a contentious contract extension, a trip to Dubai to eat pizza and drink beer and a subsequent trip to Portland to burn them off again.

However, even the staunchest anti-Rooney supporters would accept that given Rooney has missed a number of games during the season as a result of injuries and personal issues, a direct comparison using counting statistics does not provide a fair like-for-like comparison.

Therefore the first important before carrying out any season-to-season comparison is to create rate bases statistics which allow us to analyse each players “per minute” contribution.

Let’s have a look at some lovely numbers.

The data

The data below shows each players minutes, goals and “direct assists” for the last five Premier league season and the corresponding rate metrics.

Dimitar Berbatov – Basic attacking statistics

Season	Minutes	Goals	Assists	G&A	Min per G	Min per A	Min per G&A
2006/07	2715	12	11	23	226	247	118
2007/08	2989	15	11	26	199	272	115
2008/09	2564	9	10	19	285	256	135
2009/10	2094	12	6	18	175	349	116
2010/11	1802	19	2	21	95	901	86

Just to clarify, the first two seasons above are from Berbatov’s time at Spurs, not Manchester United.

I was very impressed at how consistent Berbatov has been throughout his EPL career, contributing a goal or assist every circa 120 minutes of playing time.  The tightness of the distribution may surprise you – but is a more common pattern than you would first think.

Berbatov suffered a small dip in productivity on shifting to Man United in 2008/09 – which is common for players transferring teams.  The change of environment and employer can impact a footballer exactly as it can any other individual, in any other industry.  Some adapt more quickly than others – it all comes down to the individual.

However, 2010/11 has seen a huge shift in Berbatov’s number of goals.  He is now scoring at a goal every 90 minutes clip versus an EPL career average of almost 220 mins per goal (“mpg”).

However, as a result of his changing role within United’s wider structure (which will be discussed later) you may be shocked to see that his corresponding assist rate has dropped through the floor.  That is not a typo.  Dimitar Berbatov he has been credited with only two direct assists all season.  Two!

These two trends can be seen on the chart below.

Dimitar Berbatov – Goal and assist rates

Berbatov has no doubt shown a great increase in output this season, which could be attributed to a number of things – his changing role within the team, the absence and reduced contribution from Rooney, his personal circumstances and motivation, good man management etc.

It should also be noted that there has also been an unusual trend to his goals through the season, having scored eleven goals in just three fixtures.

For example, had Sir Alex Ferguson chosen not to select Berbatov for what was a reasonably straightforward home tie against Blackburn Rovers (in which he scored 5 goals) then his minutes per goal or assist metric would increase up to circa 105 – much closer to his historic averages.

This is the nature of the beast when using such small sample sizes.

Anyway, onto Monsieur Rooney…

Wayne Rooney – Basic attacking statistics

Season	Minutes	Goals	Assists	G&A	Min per G	Min per A	Min per G&A
2006/07	2715	14	12	26	194	226	104
2007/08	2989	12	13	25	249	230	120
2008/09	2564	12	7	19	214	366	135
2009/10	2094	26	6	32	81	349	65
2010/11	1322	5	10	15	264	132	88

Ah yes Mr Rooney.  A broken man, a shadow of his former self.  A man no longer fit to wear the shirt.

With only five goals to his name this season, he is on pace to score only ten goals this season, way down on that expected of him coming into the year.

However, his scoring rate of 264 mpg is not too far out of line with his 2006-2008 seasons – again small sample sizes are very dangerous.  Only one additional goal would have seen his rate close to his historic average of circa 200 mpg.

However, as we all know, many players contribute every time a team scores a goal – that much is obvious.

Wayne Rooney – Goal and assist rates

Having played only c. 1300 minutes this season Wayne Rooney has the joint third most assists (10) in the EPL – behind his teammate Nani (13).

However, his assist rate of 132 minutes per assist is the best in the entire league.

Not third, not second.  The best.

Better than Nani’s.  Better than Fabregas’.  Better than Van der Vaart’s.

That’s not bad for a fat lad completely out of touch is it?

Premier League 2010/11 – Assists per minute (min 5 assists)

Player	Minutes	Goals	Assists	Mins per Goal	Mins per Assist
Rooney	1322	5	10	264	132
Nani	1861	9	13	207	143
Walcott	1012	7	7	145	145
Arshavin	1591	5	11	318	145
Fabregas	1477	3	10	492	148
Van Persie	870	10	5	87	174
Johnson	1012	3	5	337	202
Brunt	2125	2	10	1063	213
Van der Vaart	1499	10	7	150	214
Giggs	1098	2	5	549	220
Lee	1569	2	7	785	224
Drogba	2053	10	9	205	228
Crouch	1477	2	6	739	246
Silva	1787	2	7	894	255
Baines	2340	2	9	1170	260
Carroll	1625	11	6	148	271
Albrighton	1431	4	5	358	286
Obinna	1435	3	5	478	287
Etherington	2041	4	7	510	292
Thomas	1784	3	6	595	297
Larsson	1843	1	6	1843	307
Chamakh	1536	7	5	219	307
Adam	2155	6	7	359	308
Milner	1654	1	5	1654	331
Gerrard	1690	4	5	423	338
Barton	2035	4	6	509	339
Young A	2062	4	6	516	344
MGP	2147	4	6	537	358
Piquionne	1803	6	5	301	361
Kuyt	1829	4	5	457	366
N’Zogbia	1972	4	5	493	394
Torres	2025	9	5	225	405
Tevez	2048	18	5	114	410
Jarvis	2123	2	5	1062	425
Gutierrez	2147	1	5	2147	429
Elmander	2262	9	5	251	452
Downing	2419	5	5	484	484

Observations

It should be noted here that Rooney‘s assist rate is half that of Spurs’ sensation Rafael Van der Vaart and that Arsenal’s player of the year in waiting, Samir Nasri, has been credited with only one direct assist all season.

Leyton Baines has chalked up nine direct assists from left back, which is a might fine effort, particularly given Everton’s struggles.  Tip of the cap.

And Robin Van Persie is absolutely on fire since coming back from injury.  He leads the league in goals per minute and is close to the top in assists as well.  If only he could stay fit, who knows what Arsenal can achieve.  Maybe we will find out tonight…

Off topic, although in this instance the combination of goals and assists is of some use to indicate a simplistic point, I think this data is already showing some severe weaknesses.  This is indicative of why I feel this data is totally useless as a value adding tool in the professional game.

Anyway, now let’s now have a look at United’s strike force combined:

Berbatov & Rooney combined – Basic attacking statistics

Season	Minutes	Goals	Assists	G&A	Min per G	Min per A	Min per G&A
2006/07	5430	26	23	49	209	236	111
2007/08	5978	27	24	51	221	249	117
2008/09	5128	21	17	38	244	302	135
2009/10	4188	38	12	50	110	349	84
2010/11	3124	24	12	36	130	260	87

As previously stated, the first two years are not really comparable data sets given that Berbatov was playing for Spurs at the time so they will be dismissed – bar noting that they look reasonably consistent with the numbers we would expect to see of two players of this ilk.

The key point of note here is simply how similar their combined goal involvement rates are – 84 mins per goal/assist in 2009/10 and now 87 mins per goal/assist in 2010/11.

You can’t really get much closer than that.

So what is actually going on here?

Each individual player obviously makes a contribution to the overall team’s performance.

However, the two individual contributions are materially dependent.  It is clear that although individually credited with subjective statistics such as goals, assists, passes tackles and clearances that each and every player is in some way involved in each and every event that occurs on a football field.

It is the nature of an invasion game.

Manchester United normally choose to use a 4-4-2 system in home games, with one out-and-out striker and one forward, and a 4-5-1 system in away games, using a loan target man and three deeper supporting attacking payers – normally two wingers with a third player in a slightly deeper role than you would find a traditional forward.

In 2009/10, until the time of his ankle injury in March, Manchester United predominantly used Wayne Rooney as the spearhead of either of these formations – resulting him in scoring a high number of goals and, in comparison to his early years at the club, recording a reduced number of assists.

Dimitar Berbatov, in a more limited role time wise, would most commonly play as the playmaking forward in home games – resulting in a reduced number of goals but a very high assist rate.

Entering 2010/11 with Wayne Rooney both injured and out of form, Berbatov was used as a traditional target man at the focal point of United’s attack in the Charity Shield against Chelsea  – and it was a great success.

And he has been there ever since, scoring bucket loads of goals – particularly against the weaker sides.

On his return, Wayne Rooney now had a “new” role in comparison to 2009/10 – which was actually to slip back into his “old” role as a forward, linking up play and providing for others.

As a consequence, you now see his goals somewhat suppressed but his assist rate increasing once again.

Its pretty simple when you look at it from the right angle way.

Some comparative data

The tables below show the same comparative statistics for Didier Drogba and Fernando Torres.

As top level strikers at comparable clubs, you will see many similarities in the numbers – particularly the rate statistics:

Didier Drogba – Basic attacking statistics

Season	Minutes	Goals	Assists	G&A	Min per G	Min per A	Min per G&A
2006/07	2946	20	4	24	147	737	123
2007/08	1525	8	6	14	191	254	109
2008/09	1550	5	4	9	310	388	172
2009/10	2771	29	13	42	96	213	66
2010/11	2048	10	9	19	194	216	102

Didier Drogba – Goal and assist rates

Observations

Didier Drogba’s game has developed considerably over his years at Chelsea.

Having been credited with only 14 assists in this first three seasons at the Bridge, he has chalked up 22 in the last season and a half, whilst still scoring in line with his historic average rate.

Fernando Torres – Basic attacking statistics – Liverpool career

Season	Minutes	Goals	Assists	G&A	Min per G	Min per A	Min per G&A
2007/08	2533	24	4	28	106	633	90
2008/09	1729	14	5	19	124	346	91
2009/10	1705	18	3	21	95	568	81
2010/11	1890	9	5	14	205	228	135

Fernando Torres – Goal and assist rates – Liverpool career

Observations

Fernando Torres has achieved an amazing level of goalscoring consistency throughout his Liverpool career – particularly given he has been playing in a lesser team and doesn’t get his statistics padded by penalties.

As he is the quintessential “finisher”, he does have a reduced assist rate  - but it is that goal rate that Chelsea have paid £50 million for.

However, the reason I believe they have made a poor investment decision is shown in the “minutes” column.  He is an injury prone asset with a high risk of breaking down completely within the next three years.

Most other top strikers would be looking to be on the pitch for 2500+ minutes in a season – something Torres seems incapable of managing in recent years.

You can only be a £50 million player when you are doing exactly that – playing.

When you aren’t, you are a £50 million sunk cost.

Update

Having been accused of “Man United bias” by a well respected BOTW follower, I thought I would clarify my points with respect to Fernando Torres and Wayne Rooney.

Firstly, this post was in no way an attempt to say that Wayne Rooney was in great touch and playing well.  Rooney has clearly been performing below his own very high standards since coming back from injury.  His touch has been a little rusty and his interplay with teammates not as crisp as in previous seasons.

I was simply explain the changing roles of Rooney and Berbatov within the United side and that, despite his struggles, Rooney has still been contributing to United goals at a comparable rate to previous seasons.

Two other things I most certainly wasn’t opining on were:

a) The possible current transfer value of Wayne Rooney; or

b) Whether or not Wayne Rooney was more/less/equally valuable as Fernando Torres.

What I did say, and that I am happy to stick by, is that I have material concerns for the ability of Fernando Torres to stay fit and play 80%+ of Chelsea’s games over the next five years.

The Spaniard, who as I pointed out has one of the most impressively consistent goals per minute ratio’s has suffered from a range of muscle injuries in recent years and I feel that they may impact his career on an ongoing basis.

About 25 years ago, Ryan Giggs suffered from a number of hamstring and groin related issues in the middle of his Manchester United career yet he has managed to continue to play at the top level until his late thirties.

However, to use Giggs’ own words, his solution for his muscle injuries was “to stop running flat out”.  I remember a quote from the Welshman from many years ago, in which he said he hadn’t attempted to run at full speed this side of 30.

I’m sorry to say Roman, that isn’t really a viable solution for a centre forward.

Pretty pictures

As ever, I thought I would draw some pictures to try an illustrate my point.

League games played by season – Peer Group

As this clearly shows, Fernando Torres has consistently played less games than Wayne Rooney and the world’s only undisputed £50 million footballers, Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, who have played 84% and 85%  of their respective sides league games over the last 4 years.

For completeness, Rooney has featured in 75% of Man United’s league games and Torres 68%.

League games played by season – Big names aged 23 – 26

This chart shows the comparable seasons for a handful of other big names strikers of recent years.

Again, you can see that Torres’ games played statistics are somewhat lower than all the others.

Major props to Thierry Henry who played 93% of Arsenal’s games over a four year stretch, missing only 10 games in total.

That said, the others were not that far behind particularly Alan Shearer (90%) and David Villa (88%).

Didier Drogba played in 82% of his sides games during the period.

League games played by season – Torres comparables

Now, please go easy on me and take this final comparison with a pinch of salt.

But here are a few other players that averaged 50 – 70% of their teams’ games from the ages 23 to 26.

After “great striker”, what is this second thing that springs to mind if I asked you for a common denominator for the group of Ronaldo, Robbie Fowler and Michael Owen?

I’m just sayin’…

.