OK guys, this is a bit of an experiment.

I am about to try and produce a piece inside a 45 minute lunch break.  It has just taken me 13 minutes to buy and inhale a 6” Subway (Chicken Teriyaki & very nice thank you, as you are asking) so I now have 32 to minutes to pull this together.

The bulk of it is in my brain, some is being constructed on the hoof.

Let’s hope I manage to remain rational and focussed on the important factors rather than allowing my view to be distorted by the media hysteria, given I am very much up against the clock.

Not surprisingly, the topic up for debate is the Liverpool/Roy Hodgson predicament.

As we are all aware (having had it beaten into us day after day by the press) things have been rocky for Roy at Anfield almost since day one.

Rafa Benitez’s reign petered out somewhat with a 7^th place finish in 2009/10 and even though he was Spaniard was officially sacked, it almost felt like he was pushed out of a side door -particularly given the speed he was subsequently appointed at Inter.

Already battered and bruised due to the ongoing ownership turmoil, the nostalgic amongst the Liverpool faithful were calling for the return of King Kenny.  We will never know how that one would have panned out, but I can’t help but feel things wouldn’t have be looking too different for LFC  heading into 2011.

Roy’s reception at Anfield can, at Leon Best, be described as “Luke Warm”.  The same probably cannot be said for the reception Paul Konchesky received when he arrived to sign his contract and swear allegiance to “the sign”.  That’s if he got any reception at all.

Hey, at least it wasn’t Luke Young guys?  It is important to always remember that however bad things get it could always, always be worse.

Anyway, enough of this idle chat, I have a deadline!

John “Dubya” Henry and his gang are apparently huddled around a boardroom/spider phone as we speak determining whether or not to relieve the face-rubber extraordinaire of his duties.

Let’s have a look at some cold hard facts amidst the conjecture and see how things stand in the here and now:

Current EPL table

Pos	Team	Games	GD	Points
1	Manchester United	20	24	44
2	Manchester City	22	17	42
3	Arsenal	21	20	40
4	Tottenham Hotspur	21	6	36
5	Chelsea	21	17	35
6	Sunderland	22	3	33
7	Bolton Wanderers	22	5	30
8	Newcastle United	21	3	28
9	Blackburn Rovers	22	-6	28
10	Stoke City	21	0	27
11	Everton	21	-2	25
12	Liverpool	20	-3	25
13	Blackpool	19	-5	25
14	Fulham	21	-2	22
15	Birmingham City	20	-5	22
16	WBA	21	-13	22
17	Wolves	21	-13	21
18	Aston Villa	21	-15	21
19	Wigan Athletic	21	-15	21
20	West Ham United	22	-16	20

Now, I am aware you cannot polish a turd.  So I am not going to try to claim that Roy’s short reign has been a success in any way. But one thing that cannot be pinned on Roy is the shit weather.

Liverpool currently have a game in hand on every team above them in the league – versus Fulham at Anfield.  Even on current form this is a game they would hope to win.

Liverpool also feature in the next scheduled Premier League game – away at Blackpool.  Now it would be stretching it to chalk Liverpool (or Roy) up for an away win on current (or long term) form.

Let’s make the wild assumption that Liverpool,, under the guidance of “TFRE” would take four points from those two fixtures.  Then the league table would likely look like this:

GIH adjusted EPL table

Pos	Team	Games	GD	Points
1	Manchester United	20	24	44
2	Manchester City	22	17	42
3	Arsenal	21	20	40
4	Tottenham Hotspur	21	6	36
5	Chelsea	21	17	35
6	Sunderland	22	3	33
7	Bolton Wanderers	22	5	30
8	Liverpool	22	-1	29
9	Newcastle United	21	3	28
10	Blackburn Rovers	22	-6	28
11	Stoke City	21	0	27
12	Everton	21	-2	25
13	Blackpool	19	-5	25
14	Fulham	21	-2	22
15	Birmingham City	20	-5	22
16	WBA	21	-13	22
17	Wolves	21	-13	21
18	Aston Villa	21	-15	21
19	Wigan Athletic	21	-15	21
20	West Ham United	22	-16	20

Given that nothing else is going to change in the league over that period, I would suggest that this is the scenario that JWH and TW should be considering.

Now, I know,  8^th in the league isn’t great.

And losing away at Blackburn is poor.  (Particularly given they are managed by a man who knows ABSOLUTELY NOTHING about football in any way shape or form.  He doesn’t even know how many players to name on his team sheet. .. /sarcasm)

And losing at home to Wolves is even worse still.

But then beating Chelsea 2-0 is also very, very good.

Being the only team to manage to beat a resurgent Bolton at the Reebok all season is also very, very good.  Bolton are 5/4/1/+8 at home this season and both Man United and Spurs came unstuck there by their own standard.

Leading against Arsenal into injury time, before your minimum top 5 in the world goalkeeper makes a rare and inexplicable  blunder to cost his team 2 points is also pretty damn good.  If Reina catches that cross on opening day, at a minimum the table would look like this:

Goal keeping gaff adjusted EPL table

Pos	Team	Games	GD	Points
1	Manchester United	20	24	44
2	Manchester City	22	17	42
3	Arsenal	21	20	40
4	Tottenham Hotspur	21	6	36
5	Chelsea	21	17	35
6	Sunderland	22	3	33
7	Liverpool	22	0	31
8	Bolton Wanderers	22	5	30
9	Newcastle United	21	3	28
10	Blackburn Rovers	22	-6	28
11	Stoke City	21	0	27
12	Everton	21	-2	25
13	Blackpool	19	-5	25
14	Fulham	21	-2	22
15	Birmingham City	20	-5	22
16	WBA	21	-13	22
17	Wolves	21	-13	21
18	Aston Villa	21	-15	21
19	Wigan Athletic	21	-15	21
20	West Ham United	22	-16	20

In reality, the confidence winning that game might have given the Liverpool squad, it might have looked even better by now.

So let’s stop implying the entire season has been a complete and utter shambles and suddenly Roy Hodgson is a hapless fool who doesn’t know what he is doing.  As it quite clearly hasn’t.

It has been bad.  It probably now qualifies as “very bad”.  But it hasn’t been “sack him and pay him off after 25 games bad”.

Let’s show Roy some of the respect he deserves.  And while we are at it, let’s start doing the same with Steve Kean until he proves us otherwise.

There are enough horrible characters in football that deserve everything they get.  Abuse them.

Roy Hodgson is most certainly not one of them

So what do I think the Liverpool owners will do?

Being a big baseball fan and corporate finance bod, I know a little bit about John Henry and the NESV gang .

And let me tell you they are a group of very, very, very intelligent people. And more importantly, they are very shrewd businessmen with a great deal of experience of running a sports club much more complex than Liverpool FC.

I expect them to consider all their options thoroughly and make the correct decision.

Which may in fact be to let Roy go and seek a fresh start.  But I doubt it very much.  It isn’t really their style.

I expect Roy to be given a bit more time and for them to assess at season’s end given there is:

a) almost zero risk of relegation; and

b) almost zero chance of making the Champions League.

If you wish to argue otherwise on either of those two points, be aware you may be labile to me changing you for wasting valuable BOTW time.

The only scenario in which I think it makes sense and Roy may be removed is if a big name, long term successor is already waiting in the wings.  Of the Guus Hiddink mould for example.  But I don’t think that is the case or someone, somewhere would have heard, and subsequently leaked it.

One thing is for sure, the nostalgic appointment of Kenny Dalglish, ten years removed from football management, will not be their determined solution.

Is there a cheeky bet to profit from this mass media hysteria?

I think there is something that can be manipulated.  Down at West Ham we can safely say “Outcome B” is not on the cards for the Hammers.  But “Outcome A” is looking a legitimate risk, which could leave the club and its new owners facing financial meltdown.

They don’t have the luxury of time, and given the manor of the defeat at The Sport Direct Stadium last night, I think they are much more likely to make a move.

I also don’t think it makes any sense whatsoever to remove Roy days prior to the FA Cup game against Man United.  It would leave them in disarray going into a key game for the only thing left that could save the clubs season an appease the disgruntled supporters.

So I expect Roy’s position to be announced as safe for now later today or tomorrow and the betting markets to shift heavily in favour of Avram Grant being the next for the chop.

Take a small position now, and it can then be hedged later on.

BOTW: 2pts on Avram Grant to be the next manager fired @ 3.5

_

Deadline? What deadline?

Mission accomplished.  In fact, mission obliterated.

.