Evening guys.

This was originally going to be one of my mammoth monologues, but given that it is 6pm on New Year’s Eve and that many of you have raised a number of the points I was going to make on the site already here, for once in my life I am going to try and keep this short and to the point.

The bottom half of the Premier League table makes for exciting reading at the moment, with only four points separating 19th and 11th place.  I think we are due for one of the most exciting relegation battles in years.  Here, have yourself a goosey:

Summarized EPL table as @ 31 December 2010

Position	Team	Played	GD	Points
1	Manchester United	18	22	38
2	Manchester City	20	16	38
3	Arsenal	19	17	36
4	Chelsea	19	18	34
5	Tottenham Hotspur	19	6	33
6	Bolton Wanderers	20	6	29
7	Sunderland	20	-1	27
8	Blackpool	17	-3	25
9	Blackburn Rovers	20	-5	25
10	Stoke City	19	-1	24
11	Everton	19	-1	22
12	Liverpool	18	-2	22
13	Newcastle United	19	-3	22
14	WBA	19	-9	22
15	Aston Villa	19	-14	20
16	Wigan Athletic	19	-14	20
17	Birmingham City	18	-3	19
18	Fulham	19	-4	19
19	Wolves	19	-12	18
20	West Ham United	20	-13	17

In the 20 team Premier League era, no team has ever gone down having been more than eight  points clear of the drop zone at this time of year.  Trotters fans – you can sleep easy this evening.

Taking this one step further, only three teams have been relegated having been more than 4 points above the relegation zone at the halfway point – Reading (8) in 2007/08, Wimbledon (7) in 1999/00 and Sunderland (7) way back in 1996/97.

Although they are not mathematically safe, Blackpool fans you are almost there.  If I didn’t know who your games in hand were against I would already had you in the “home and dry” camp.

So, barring any huge collapses (for which Blackburn and Blackpool are the only possible candidates) I think we can say that Blackpool, Blackburn and Stoke are probably safe.  And I will make the sweeping assumption to add Everton and Liverpool to that list too.

So let’s have a look at a condensed table of the relegation candidates to hopefully make things a little clearer.

Summarized EPL table as @ 31 December 2010

Position	Team	Played	GD	Points
8	Blackpool	17	-3	25
9	Blackburn Rovers	20	-5	25
13	Newcastle United	19	-3	22
14	WBA	19	-9	22
15	Aston Villa	19	-14	20
16	Wigan Athletic	19	-14	20
17	Birmingham City	18	-3	19
18	Fulham	19	-4	19
19	Wolves	19	-12	18
20	West Ham United	20	-13	17

Now as noted many times (by myself and and readers alike) over the last couple of years, I am a huge fan of using goal difference as overall performance indicator.  The strength of correlation between teams goal difference records and total points/league positions over the years is just too strong to ignore.

Last season, Roberto Martinez’s Wigan were the first team in the near 20 year history of the Premier League to survive with a goal difference worse than -30.  They amassed a staggeringly bad -42 goal difference last season.

But that is the nature of variance and outliers.  They were exactly that though –  an outlier.  It is easier to sustain such a negative goal difference when you go 0/0/4/-26 in only four fixtures against Chelsea (8-0), Tottenham (9-1) and Man United (5-0 & 5-0).

Incidentally, at the other end of the spectrum no team has ever failed to finish in the top 4 when chalking up a goal difference of +30 or better.  Flick back up to the first table at the top of this post and have a look at the top five.  Statistical evidence that Spurs must sort out that porous back-line if they have any intention of keeping pace with the current top four and retaining their place amongst Europe’s elite next season.

Anyway, back to the bottom.  You should notice that there are five sides that do not project as relegation teams – Blackpool, Blackburn, Newcastle, Fulham and Birmingham.

Check out the goal differences of the relegated teams since 1995:

EPL relegation goal differences – 1995 to 2010

Year	Team	GD
2010	Burnley	-40
2010	Hull City	-41
2010	Portsmouth	-32
2009	Newcastle United	-19
2009	Middlesbrough	-29
2009	WBA	-31
2008	Reading	-25
2008	Birmingham City	-16
2008	Derby County	-69
2007	Sheffield United	-23
2007	Charlton Athletic	-26
2007	Watford	-30
2006	Birmingham City	-22
2006	WBA	-27
2006	Sunderland	-43
2005	Crystal Palace	-21
2005	Norwich City	-35
2005	Southampton	-21
2004	Leicester City	-17
2004	Leeds United	-39
2004	Wolves	-39
2003	West Ham United	-17
2003	WBA	-36
2003	Sunderland	-44
2002	Ipswich Town	-23
2002	Derby County	-30
2002	Leicester City	-34
2001	Manchester City	-24
2001	Coventry City	-27
2001	Bradford City	-40
2000	Wimbledon	-28
2000	Sheff Wed	-32
2000	Watford	-42
1999	Charlton Athletic	-15
1999	Blackburn Rovers	-14
1999	Nottingham Forest	-34
1998	Bolton Wanderers	-20
1998	Barnsley	-45
1998	Crystal Palace	-34
1997	Sunderland	-18
1997	Middlesbrough	-9
1997	Nottingham Forest	-28
1996	Manchester City	-25
1996	QPR	-19
1996	Bolton Wanderers	-32

The numbers don’t lie.  43 of the 45 (96%) sides relegated in the last 15 years have had a goal difference of at least -15.  The average goal difference of a relegated side over that period has been -29, which would pro rate to around -14 at this stage in the season.

So, filtering down that list one more time gives us the following candidates most likely for the chop:

Relegation candidates as @ 31 December 2010

Position	Team	Played	GD	Points	Odds
14	WBA	19	-9	22	5.30
15	Aston Villa	19	-14	20	5.40
16	Wigan Athletic	19	-14	20	2.30
19	Wolves	19	-12	18	1.80
20	West Ham United	20	-13	17	1.85

In my eyes, we have five teams that will fill out the three relegation spots come May.

I don’t believe that Aston Villa will go down.  Being “too good to go down” is at times a dangerous place to be.  Just ask Alan Shearer.

But in this case Villa are, indeed, too good to go down – for reasons mentioned here earlier this week.

So it appears, in some ironic twist, that the Premier League table is destined to finish in some odd variation of alphabetical order, with the four W’s left to fight out a war of attrition over the coming months from which only one will survive.

Despite their cracking win at Anfield this week, I fear for Mick McCarthy’s Wolves side.  They have played five of the bottom seven at Molineux already, so will be relying on some further stellar away performances if they are going to find the 18-20 points they are likely to need in the second half.

For me they have one foot in the Championship already sadly.  One possible fairytale escape for them could involve the return of their much traveled, gun slinging, forward rolling, prodigal son Robbie Keane from Spurs in the next couple of weeks.  That would be quite a story.

Things also look bleak for Wigan Athletic.  With their best player (Charles N’Zogbia) likely headed for the exit door next month and their propensity to concede goals at a rate comparable to a team of schoolboys playing on the local park, I can’t see them surviving again this season without some serious investment from their enigmatic chairman Dave Whelan – something he has given little indication is he going to be willing to do.

That leaves us with a straight shoot out between West Ham and West Brom for the solitary survival spot.

And having seen West Ham two or three times in recent weeks, I can’t help but feel that they are going to get themselves out of this mess.  They are likely to buy (and sell) in January, they still have a number of top class players and Avram Grant is a much, much better manager than the British media give him credit for.

Add into the mix the fact that they came through the exact same situation last year, and I think they are battle-hardened enough to become only the second team in Premier League history to survive “the Christmas curse”.

Their recent form is much improved (actually of mid-table standard) and both their attacking (17th) and defensive (16th) goal metrics indicate that they have what it takes to survive.

Sadly, that leaves us with the stylish and likable West Brom staring down the barrel. Does their record offer anything to support their case for survival?

In keeping with their attractive and attacking style of play, the Baggies score goals at a cracking clip (8th best in the league) but combine that with the second worst defensive record, conceding on average 1.8 goals per game and having kept only one clean sheet all season.

There is no indication that they plan to invest heavily in the squad in January and the fact that 7 of their 22 points were achieved at Old Trafford, The Emirates and Goodison Park means they reek of “regression candidate” to me.

The current 5.3 (19%) on offer has to be taken now.  By the time they leave Craven Cottage in four days time they could already find themselves in the drop zone and in the midst of a battle.

If Roberto Di Matteo was to cheat on his footballing principles and resort to a more physical kick and rush style of play, I am sure they could muster up the necessary points.  But I don’t see it happening.

I see them passing, moving and entertaining us to the death.  Sadly, it may well just be their own.

Here are three markets I feel can be exploited to profit from their unfortunate plight.  That wasn’t quite as short an concise as I had intended was it?!  I am just not capable.  Good job I don’t have to adhere to a publishing word count!

BOTW: 2pts on West Brom to go down @ 5.3

0.25pts on West Brom to finish bottom @ 22/1

2pts on Aston Villa & 1pt on Birmingham to be “Top Midlands Club” @ 5/4 and 4/1 respectively

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