Right gang, I think you are going to like this one.

There is nothing like a couple of weeks of limited action to get me flying around the Oddschecker website like a sniffer dog in crack den.

And as it turns out, I reckon I have cooked something up that even Jamie Oliver would be proud of.

Apologies in advance if this isn’t the most free flowing of pieces.  It has taken long enough to do the preparation work and I don’t really have a spare 12 hours to make it read nice as well!

Back in July, a reader sent me a piece of analysis about the top goalscorer market, and although I chose not to take a positions in the market then, some bits of the analysis were very interesting and stuck in my mind.

It’s a shame I didn’t however, as I did tip Dimitar Berbatov as a blatant regression candidate in 2010-11 here – at a time when he was 33/1 to be the top scorer!  Oh for that DeLorean!

For those that haven’t been following the site for that long, I recommend going back and checking out this post which I put together part way through the 2009-10 season on the same subject.  A number of the observations from last season are still very much applicable, but I don’t plan to go over the conclusions of that piece again here.

Here is a bit of background to the Premier League top goalscorer market:

Historic Premier League Golden Boot Winners

Season	Player	Goals
2009-10	Drogba	29
2008-09	Anelka	19
2007-08	Ronaldo	31
2006-07	Drogba	20
2005-06	Henry	27
2004-05	Henry	25
2003-04	Henry	30
2002-03	Van Nistelrooy	25
2001-02	Henry	24
2000-01	Hasselbaink	23
1999-00	Phillips	30
1998-99	Owen/Hasselbaink	18
1997-98	Owen/Sutton/Dublin	18
1996-97	Shearer	25
1995-96	Shearer	31
1994-95	Shearer	34
1993-94	Cole	34
1992-93	Sheringham	22

Observations

The mean average haul for the golden boot winner has been 26 over the 18 years since the inception of the EPL.

Only 13 players have ever won the award, including ties.  There have only ever been 10 outright winners.

The lowest winning total to date is 18, back in 1997-98 and 1998-99.  The highest ever total was Alan Shearer’s staggering 34 goal haul from the 38 game 1994-95 season.

And more importantly, as background from a betting perspective…

Interestingly, the winner of the Golden Boot has come from “the Big 4” for the last ten seasons, with Super Kevin Philips’ 30 goal haul back in 1999-00 the last time somebody from a smaller club prospered.

Even more interestingly, only three non Big 4 players have even finished second in the scoring charts since the turn of the century.  I’ll let you have a few guesses at those and I will throw the answers into the comments later on.

Of the 17 players to have featured on the leaderboard, 16 are most definitely strikers – or in Big Dion Dublin’s case, were playing as strikers at the time.  The 17^th in Ronaldo.  Enough said I think.

Only three midfielders have graced even the top 5 spots in the 10 years since 2000 – Frank Lampard twice (16, 22) Steven Gerrard (16) and Robert Pires (14).  I would note that all three of these players also play(ed) for “Big 4” clubs.

Staggeringly, by my reckoning only one non Big 4 midfielder has ever finished in the top 10 of the scoring charts in the last 18 years – which covers 180 places!

The answer to this particular trivia question is… Andrei Kanchelskis!  The who chalked up 16 goals for Everton back in the 1995-96 season.  A legend worthy of a quick video I feel…

If you actually sit and watch that video it is quite spooky just how similar 80% of AK’s goals were.  I don’t want to take anything away from his fantastic ability as a player, but you can’t help feel that the league has develpoed over the last 15 years and that teams these days would be more adept at stifling his movement and forcing him into wider positions more effectively.

Anyway, I have clearly digressed!  Back to the betting.

Here is how things stand in the top scorer charts going into the exciting festive period:

 

Premier League Top Goalscorers as at 24/12/10

Pos	Player	Team	Goals
1	Dimitar Berbatov	Man Utd	11
2	Andrew Carroll	Newcastle	10
3	Carlos Tevez	Man City	10
4	Tim Cahill	Everton	9
5	Didier Drogba	Chelsea	8
6	Johan Elmander	Bolton	8
7	Samir Nasri	Arsenal	8
8	Kevin Nolan	Newcastle	8
9	Darren Bent	Sunderland	7
10	Marouane Chamakh	Arsenal	7
11	Florent Malouda	Chelsea	7
12	Kevin Davies	Bolton	6
13	Salomon Kalou	Chelsea	6
14	Peter Odemwingie	WBA	6
15	Rafael Van der Vaart	Tottenham	6
16	Gareth Bale	Tottenham	5
17	Clinton Dempsey	Fulham	5
18	Stewart Downing	Aston Villa	5
19	Asamoah Gyan	Sunderland	5
20	Marlon Harewood	Blackpool	5
21	Luis Nani	Man Utd	5
22	Roman Pavlyuchenko	Tottenham	5
23	Fernando Torres	Liverpool	5
24	Luke Varney	Blackpool	5
25	Danny Welbeck	Sunderland	5
26	Sylvan Ebanks-Blake	Wolves	4
27	Craig Gardner	Birmingham	4
28	Javier Hernandez	Man Utd	4
29	Kenwyne Jones	Stoke City	4
30	Ji-Sung Park	Man Utd	4
31	Scott Parker	West Ham Utd	4
32	MG Pedersen	Blackburn	4
33	Frederic Piquionne	West Ham Utd	4
34	Hugo Rodallega	Wigan Athletic	4
35	Theo Walcott	Arsenal	4
36	Charlie Adam	Blackpool	3
37	Marc Albrighton	Aston Villa	3
38	Shola Ameobi	Newcastle	3
39	Nicolas Anelka	Chelsea	3
40	Andrey Arshavin	Arsenal	3

The only noticeable absentees from this list are Messrs Rooney (1) and Lampard (1).

They are both cracking players, but I think it is safe to say the chances of them topping the charts this season are relatively slim.

So, with both the historic data and the current standings in mind, let’s have a look at the odds for this season’s golden boot winner.

Current Premier League Top Goalscorer odds

Player	B365	Skybet	Betfred	Paddy’s	Stan J	Coral	Hills
Didier Drogba	4.33	4.5	4	4.33	4.33	4.33	5
Dimitar Berbatov	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.5	5	4.33	5
Carlos Tevez	7	5	5.5	6.5	6	7	5.5
Andy Carroll	9	11	9	10	9	7	9
Fernando Torres	10	13	11	13	15	12	13
Marouane Chamakh	15	21	15	19	17	13	17
Darren Bent	21	15	13	17	21	15	21
Samir Nasri	29	21	26	34	26	29	34
Wayne Rooney	34	26	29	34	34	51	34
Johan Elmander	26	51	26	41	26	34	41
Florent Malouda	41	51	34	41	34	41	41
Rafael van der Vaart	51	34	34	41	51	41	51
Tim Cahill	67	51	41	51	67	26	67
Nicolas Anelka	41	41	34	51	67	41	51
Javier Hernandez	51	34	26	41	51	41	67
Asamoah Gyan	51	51	34	67	67	67	67
Danny Welbeck	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	67	n/a
Kevin Davies	n/a	67	51	67	81	81	67
Kevin Nolan	81	67	67	67	101	51	81
Jermain Defoe	67	81	67	81	101	81	81
Mario Balotelli	81	101	81	81	81	101	67
Kenwyne Jones	n/a	81	67	101	n/a	101	101
Nani	67	n/a	81	67	n/a	67	101
R Pavlyuchenko	101	67	51	67	81	81	81
F Piquionne	n/a	81	n/a	101	n/a	n/a	n/a
Peter Odemwingie	n/a	n/a	n/a	67	n/a	41	101
Dirk Kuyt	n/a	81	101	n/a	n/a	101	n/a
Kiko Macheda	n/a	101	n/a	n/a	n/a	67	n/a
DJ Campbell	n/a	101	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Ivan Klasnic	n/a	101	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Stephen Fletcher	n/a	101	n/a	n/a	n/a	101	n/a
Shola Ameobi	n/a	101	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
G Bale	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	81	n/a	101
Yossi Benayoun	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	101	n/a
Robin Van Persie	67	81	67	81	126	101	81
Nikola Zigic	n/a	101	101	n/a	n/a	126	n/a
David NGog	n/a	81	101	n/a	n/a	126	n/a
Cesc Fabregas	101	67	81	101	126	126	101
Nikola Kalinic	n/a	101	81	n/a	n/a	126	n/a
Yakubu	n/a	81	101	n/a	n/a	126	n/a
Clint Dempsey	n/a	126	n/a	n/a	n/a	67	n/a
Hugo Rodallega	n/a	101	101	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Carlton Cole	n/a	101	126	n/a	n/a	126	n/a
Theo Walcott	n/a	81	67	n/a	151	101	101
Salomon Kalou	101	67	51	81	151	51	81
Gabby Agbonlahor	n/a	81	126	n/a	n/a	151	101
John Carew	n/a	101	126	n/a	n/a	151	n/a
Emmanuel Adebayor	n/a	151	81	101	n/a	126	n/a
Andrey Arshavin	151	67	51	67	101	101	101
Michael Owen	n/a	101	n/a	n/a	n/a	151	n/a
Ricardo Fuller	n/a	151	n/a	n/a	n/a	151	n/a
Cameron Jerome	n/a	151	n/a	101	n/a	126	n/a
Louis Saha	n/a	101	101	n/a	n/a	151	n/a
Sylvan Ebanks-Blake	n/a	151	81	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Christian Benitez	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	151	n/a
David Silva	n/a	101	151	n/a	n/a	151	n/a
Moussa Dembele	n/a	n/a	101	n/a	n/a	151	n/a
Daniel Sturridge	n/a	n/a	151	n/a	n/a	81	n/a
Emile Heskey	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	151	n/a
Charlie Adam	n/a	151	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Roman Bednar	n/a	151	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Frank Lampard	n/a	81	81	101	201	101	101
Jermaine Beckford	n/a	126	n/a	n/a	n/a	101	n/a
Nicklas Bendtner	n/a	81	n/a	n/a	n/a	201	n/a
Marlon Harewood	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	201	101	n/a
Peter Crouch	201	81	67	101	n/a	101	151
Robbie Keane	n/a	101	n/a	n/a	n/a	151	n/a
Kevin Doyle	n/a	101	101	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Ashley Young	n/a	101	126	n/a	n/a	201	n/a
Victor Anichebe	n/a	201	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Jason Roberts	n/a	201	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Luka Modric	n/a	201	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Graeme Dorrans	n/a	201	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Steven Gerrard	251	81	67	101	151	101	101

Now as you can see, the bookies like to quote prices on every man and his dog in this market.  There is a simple reason for that though – because your average punter loves absolutely nothing more than to waste £5 on a ridiculous punt on Kevin Nolan or Danny Wellbeck in the hope of hitting the jackpot come May.

But we can use this in our favour.  Check out the more condensed table below which contains the implied probability percentages for the main contenders and the residual market.

Current bookies odds implied probabilities

Player	B365	Skybet	Betfred	Paddy’s	Stan J	Coral	Hills	BOTW
Didier Drogba	23%	22%	25%	23%	23%	23%	20%	33%
Dimitar Berbatov	22%	22%	22%	22%	20%	23%	20%	22%
Carlos Tevez	14%	20%	18%	15%	17%	14%	18%	19%
Andy Carroll	11%	9%	11%	10%	11%	14%	11%	9%
Fernando Torres	10%	8%	9%	8%	7%	8%	8%	4%
Marouane Chamakh	7%	5%	7%	5%	6%	8%	6%	6%
Darren Bent	5%	7%	8%	6%	5%	7%	5%	4%
Samir Nasri	3%	5%	4%	3%	4%	3%	3%	0%
Wayne Rooney	3%	4%	3%	3%	3%	2%	3%	0%
Johan Elmander	4%	2%	4%	2%	4%	3%	2%	1%
Florent Malouda	2%	2%	3%	2%	3%	2%	2%	0%
Rafael van der Vaart	2%	3%	3%	2%	2%	2%	2%	0%
Tim Cahill	1%	2%	2%	2%	1%	4%	1%	0%
Nicolas Anelka	2%	2%	3%	2%	1%	2%	2%	0%
Javier Hernandez	2%	3%	4%	2%	2%	2%	1%	0%
Asamoah Gyan	2%	2%	3%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%
Danny Welbeck	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%
Kevin Davies	0%	1%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%
Kevin Nolan	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	2%	1%	0%
Jermain Defoe	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%
Mario Balotelli	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%
Kenwyne Jones	0%	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	0%
Nani	1%	0%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	0%
Others	14%	45%	35%	23%	13%	41%	20%	0%
Total	131%	168%	171%	137%	127%	167%	131%	100%
Top 5	80%	81%	86%	78%	78%	83%	77%	87%

Observations

Firstly, it is important to note the size of total % of the book’s being run by the individual bookmakers – which ranges from 127% to an outrageous 171!  Remember, any true probability book would result in all the possible outcomes adding up to 100%.

Remember, most bookies 1X2 win market for any particular game normally adds up to about 103-108%.  This addition 5-8% is the bookies “margin” or “over-round”.

This is exactly the same as the rake in a game of poker and what makes the bookies their cash.  Even if you were a “break even” football gambler, you would lose money in the long term due to the tide of this margin.

It is not a surprise to see Skybet’s book coming in at 168%, as they are a bit of a joke outfit and would probably only let you bet £5 on most people anyway.  However, I was surprised to see the more reputable Coral and particularly Betfred running such a high over-round.

It is no surprise to see Bet365 putting together a quality book, and the same for Paddy Power and Stan James.  I was pleasantly surprised by Hill’s book.  They are normally pretty measly!

So what is going on here?  It is actually pretty simple to explain the large over-round in the market.  All of the players that these bookies are offering odds on 100/1 and 200/1 on, such as Kevin Doyle and Ashley Young combined to give a large chunk of the total book when in reality they probably have a 10,000/1 chance of being the Premier League’s top goalscorer this season.

If you look more closely you will see that the irrespective of the size of the total book, each bookmaker’s odds for the five favourites account for 77-86% implied probability.  This is more realistic and does not contain very much margin on the bookies part.  They make all of their cash through people backing outsiders AKA willingly just handing over their cash with no hope of ever seeing a return!

So how do we go about exploiting this market?

Well, we can use the bookies plan to exploit the everyday punter by offering odds on such a large number of runners who stand no material chance of being the top scorer and take a weighted position against this wider field.

Let me explain.

If you take the current “best price available” for the top 5 of Drogba, Berbatov, Tevez, Carroll and Torres you have a 71% book.

That means the market is current suggesting there is a 30% chance that the top goalscorer this season will not be one of those five players… Yeah right!  Good luck with that one guys.

As shown in the far right column of the table above, my fag packet estimate is that it is almost a 90% chance that the top scorer comes from that crowd.

And when you consider the historically evidence discussed at the start of this post, I would suggest that the current prices for Andy Carroll and Fernando Torres to top scorer are also actually on the stingy side.

To put Carroll’s chances into perspective, when SKP was on his way to chalking up his legendary 30 goal season for the rival Mackems at this point in 1999, he had already scored 19 Premier League goals.  Carroll only has 10 to his name so far this campaign.

Phillips also scored 6 penalties that year, something which it is unlikely Carroll is likely to see anytime soon with Kevin Nolan so proficient from the spot.  This is something which always goes unnoticed by the poor football analysts in this country.

As we have pricing to reflect a 70% shot when we actually have a 90% chance of success, this implies we have a market that can be exploited to take a significant +EV position.

The next step is to decide which of the nags are likely to run the course, and which are the most undervalued.

As I discussed in my previous piece on this subject linked above, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that irrespective of the team certain types of players will always score a certain percentage of their teams goals.

And certain types of team will always score roughly the same number of goals.  Combining both of these it allows us to forecast the likely total goal tally for each of players in question.

I don’t have the time or the energy to go through this in detail, so here are the results of said forecast:

BOTW’s 2010-11 EPL Top Goalscorer forecast

Player	Goals	Games	GPG	TG	%TG	TGF	RGF	%TGF	GF	Total
Drogba	8	18	0.44	31	26%	76	45	31%	14	22
Tevez	10	15	0.67	25	40%	60	35	30%	11	21
Berbatov	11	14	0.79	36	31%	78	42	23%	10	21
Carroll	10	18	0.56	27	37%	55	28	30%	8	18
Chamakh	7	18	0.39	31	23%	72	41	25%	10	17
Torres	5	16	0.31	21	24%	53	32	30%	10	15
Bent	7	15	0.47	21	33%	52	31	25%	8	15
Elmander	8	18	0.44	30	27%	57	27	25%	7	15
Nasri	8	15	0.53	34	24%	72	38	15%	6	14
Cahill	8	16	0.50	20	40%	52	32	17%	5	13
Nolan	8	14	0.57	27	30%	55	28	17%	5	13
Rooney	1	7	0.14	36	3%	78	42	25%	11	12
Lampard	1	4	0.25	31	3%	75	44	20%	9	10

As you can see, the science suggests that yet again the top goalscorer come from one of the top 4 sides.  Quelle surprise!

The only slight surprise is that my forecast is suggesting that Tim Cahill is going to join Andrei Kanchelskis as the 2^nd ever non Big 4 Premier League midfielder to crack the top 10.

But then I guess Moyes has been using him upfront for most of the campaign… lies, damnlies and statistics as they say!

So what’s the plan Stan?

I am going to take a position covering the big three, weight in favour of Didier Drogba.  I am also going to take a minor position on Andy Carroll to, as they call it in the trade, “cover my arse”.

Realistically, this will mean I am only exposed to Fernando Torres, Marouane Chamakh and Darren Bent.  Or Johan Elmander signing for somebody else in January, inheriting penalty taking duties and going on a rampage.

I am comfortable with this level of risk.

Here is what I am recommending:

BOTW’s weighted position

Player	Odds	Stake	Profit	Net
Drogba	5.0	4.7	18.8	13.5
Berbatov	5.0	2.5	10.0	2.5
Tevez	7.0	1.8	10.8	2.6
Carroll	10.0	1.0	9.0	0.0

For a total combined 10pt stake, I will structure the stakes such that I make an acceptable 25% profit on Messrs Berbatov and Tevez (which would more than justify tying up the cash for 6 months) and weight my position such that I have a sexy 135% profit should Didier regress back to his old self and start scoring at his historic rates.

And for good measure, we will have a little tinkle on Carroll just in case he manages to stay out of prison, keep on scoring or worst of all moves to Spurs in January!

Hopefully everyone managed to stick with me and my ramblings throughout that mahoosive piece.  It’s time for a lie down after all of that I think.

Let the debate begin…

BOTW: 10pt spread across the EPL Top Goalscorer market as above

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