BOTW – Aston Villa v West Brom
ByMorning guys.
Given the level of (very much appreciated) comments and interest in this one, I thought I would amend my original post, rather than creating a new post to keep the discussion together.
Here are my thoughts on this one and my rationale for the selection. I think 2.25 is a cracking price and as I said earlier this week would put Houllier’s men at a flat 2.0 for the win today.
Better late than never, as they say.
The historic data – underlying quality
OK, to start with let’s do the number crunching and have a look back at Aston Villa’s historic quality as an investment opportunity, rather than as purely a football team.
Personally, if I think of them as a football team my opinion is still clouded by thoughts of Ron and Dalian Atkinson (legend) and the fact that you’ll never win anything with kids.
And that isn’t good for forming a rational and independent view on their % chances of winning today!
Cracking goal. Premier League at it’s best!
Anyway, back to the money factory, sorry betting.
Let’s check out Villa’s home performances over the last 5 years. Any further than that is probably excessive, and if I am totally honest, I don’t have the data!
Aston Villa – Home Games – 2005 – 2010
|
Opposition |
P |
W |
D |
L |
W% |
|
All |
99 |
40 |
36 |
23 |
40.4 |
|
Excluding the Top 8 |
64 |
34 |
19 |
11 |
54.8 |
|
Midlands Derbies |
6 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
50.0 |
So the headline figure is, historically, the Villa win their home games at a circa 40% clip. That isn’t bad going at all and that you would expect of a team that regularly finishes in the top half of the table.
However, as we all know all games are not equal. And given that today’s opposition are a newly promoted Premier League side, to use this as any sort of comparable indicator would be… a bit daft. That’s me being tactful and putting it politely.
So, what is a more useful comparable data set?
Well, that is open to debate, but I plumped for excluding the top 8 sides and leaving all the rest in. I think I am safe to argue that there is no evidence yet to suggest West Brom are a top 8 side.
Have they done enough to warrant removing certain poor sides from the analysis? Although they are highly likely to stay up with season, I don’t think they have reached that level yet in less than 20 games.
Well, by my reckoning, Villa have played 64 home games against comparable opposition since 2005 and they have won 34 of them – good for a circa 55% success rate. Very solid stuff.
Now obviously what went on in 2005 is not as relevant as what happen in the last season or two.
The table below splits out those 64 games by season.
Aston Villa – Home Games – 2005 – 2010 – Excluding the Top 8
|
Season |
P |
W |
D |
L |
W% |
|
2005/06 |
12 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
41.7 |
|
2006/07 |
12 |
7 |
4 |
1 |
58.3 |
|
2007/08 |
12 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
58.3 |
|
2008/09 |
12 |
6 |
5 |
1 |
50.0 |
|
2009/10 |
12 |
7 |
3 |
2 |
58.3 |
|
2010/11 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
50.0 |
I am assuming most of my readers are quite surprised how consistent Villa have been and how little natural variance there is in these numbers?
This game is much more predictable in the medium term than even the staunchest of followers realise.
As an aside, the Villa side from 2005/06 accumulated 42 points and finished 16th. Now I know they have been struggling of late, but I am assuming nobody expects them to struggle that badly this season?!
So what should we be concluding from all of this?
For me it is that Villa are likely a circa 50% chance to win any home game against a non top 8 side.
Which some of you could probably of guessed. But it always helps to let the numbers slap you in the face every now and then.
Current pricing – market perception
It is crucial to remember here that we are looking for positive expected value.
We aren’t looking for the best team on the coupon. That’s Man City.
We aren’t looking for the worst team on the coupon. That’s Barnet.
We aren’t looking for the “most likely” to win. That’s Everton.
We are looking for the best value investment opportunity i.e the game where the price is distorted by market noise, or where a team is materially mis-valued by the bookies – intentionally or unintentionally!
It may well turn out to be Everton or Man City. And when it does, those bets are easy to rationalise to oneself.
However, when the best valued team on the coupon actually turns out to be Wigan away at Goodison Park, a solid understanding of the principles of value betting becomes all the more crucial and strong discipline is definitely needed.
As a clear indicator of this market shift against Villa in the last 6 weeks, would anyone like to guess what price they were at home to comparable sides Bolton (18/9) and Birmingham (31/10) earlier this season?
The maximum bookies prices were 1.83 and 1.87 respectively, with average market prices coming in at 1.78 and 1.82.
These prices give Villa an implied chance of winning the game of around 55-56%, rather than today’s 45%.
Which seems more reasonable in light of the data above then?
Recent form
One of my strong football betting beliefs is that football matches are certainly not mutually exclusive. To be honest, I think trying to claim that they are is a rather weak and ill thought through argument.
However, the complication (and common downfall of most sports punters) is a lack of understanding of how a teams’ recent/historic performances impact on their future performances.
And the reason for this is that there are no hard and fast rules.
Is a team that won last week more or less likely to win this week? Does losing to your rivals refocus the mind or demoralise the troops? What impact does the fact that they rescued a point in injury time away from home last week have on today’s games.
All these questions have the same answer. “It depends”. It’s a simple as that.
And that is where your intuitive understanding of the game and assessment of individual squads, players and management teams comes in.
I have written a bit of a monologue here, so this isn’t something I am going to go into today.
But in very short summary for me, scoring 4 goals in 2 home games against Man United and Arsenal and getting 1 point is NOT poor form.
And losing away at Anfield and Ewood Park? Well, you know you won’t be the first or the last.
Conclusion
Yes, Villa are struggling. Yes, West Brom are flying.
So you can “justify” sticking a quick £5 on West Brom in hope of paying for tonight’s takeaway to accompany the X Factor final if you so wish.
Or your other option it to buy into the principles of value betting, assess the underlying strength of the assets involved, recognise the misconceptions being stirred up by the British media about each teams’ current state, interpret each teams form correctly by looking at the individual fixtures rather than purely a biased league table and then identify the subsequent market mispricing.
The current market allows us to get on the Villa if they have a greater than 44% chance of winning. The market is quite stretched on this one, with bookies quoting anything from 1.95 to 2.30 over the last couple of days.
I am more than happy to take the top end of that market. If I was a bookie I would be quoting 2.1. Personally I think they are nearer the 1.95. (N.B. Have a think about exactly what I am saying there if you really want to get into the mind of the bookies and what drives value betting)
So at this point, irrespective of whether or not Villa win 4-1 or get thrashed 0-3 today, you can sit back satisfied that you put your cash on something that represented positive expected value in the long term.
And at that point all that is left to do is grab a shandy, kick back, and watch the game!
BOTW: 2pts on Aston Villa to beat West Brom @ 2.25
.
I’ll be interested to read your reasoning on this one Blez. Think the price is about right myself, given how poor Villa are at the moment. Plus WBA are in-form and completed a fantastic 4-1 win at Everton in their last away outing (I’m discounting their loss at Ipswich because of the weakened team selection). As said, I’d like to see your justification
.
On face value I thought that there’s definitely some EV in this one..purely due to the home advantage. But I thought I’d have a little google, just to see how much it counts for in derby matches. Now this article is old but I thought the stats make interesting reading..
http://www.pokerplayer.co.uk/sports-betting/football/97/betting_on_derby_matches.html
Maybe the commentators do know something after all, it appears that derby games are often close run affairs, with a high prevelance of draws..
As for Villa and the Albion, there isn’t too much recent history but of the 4 Premiership meetings at Villa Park, there have been two 2-1 wins and 2 draws..
I’d be interested to know how you expect this to be priced Blez, I can’t see it getting much shorter than evens? Also do you have any thoughts on Norwich at 15/13?
Villa definitely going through a rough patch, but this is an over reaction in my eyes. It is still tough to go to Anfield and come away with points (especially if your manger is touching the “This is Anfield” sign on the way onto the pitch!).
Whilst there is some history to this derby, it’s not in the league of a Merseyside derby as it used to be. These players haven’t played that much against each other so don’t see it being a physical affair like some can be. Villa still have enough quality for this to have some positive EV.
Saw this earlier in the week and initially was going to swerve on account of it being a derby but, here are my thoughts…
Remember that this is the west brom team that lost away to both blackpool and wigan. To frank that form – wigan have only won 2 home games this season (other vs wolves).
This is strengthened by fact that West Brom’s leading scorer is likely to miss the game and there is also a small doubt over Brunt – a player that has looked pretty impressive and destined for bigger things.
So if West Brom can lose, are Villa able to win? That’s a bigger question for me and whilst the return of young will help, I’m not sure I’d be supporting with my well earned cash.
Only 1 loss at home shows strength but they do like a good draw (4 out of
and I think if you offered it to him, Gerard would take a point.
My choice would be to lay west brom at 3,75,
@ Blez – great work on getting the selection out early – look forward to hearing your views!
I wouldn’t underestimate these west midlands derbies poll..they can get rather tasty as shown a couple of werks ago!
Decided to give this a swerve today. Really unsure having read team news, so gonna sit back and watch from afar. Good luck those that are on Villa
Up the villans. I’ve steamed into this x
@ Cockers: That’s my boy. Glad to see you are a fully fledged BOTW follower now.
I’ll have you jumping off a cliff like a lemming before long telling you “trust me, it’ll be alright”.
@ Zok: Clearly I need to do a bit more to get you fully onside… did the rationale help at all on this one?
@ SWAT: Laying West Brom is a perfectly acceptable strategy, and probably has even more value in it that backing Villa in my eyes. Wasn’t sure the masses were ready for the 10 point lay just yet, given I can’t even get them all onside for a 2pt value back…
p.s. Didn’t mean to ignore your response Poll. Good to see you focussed on the underlying quality of the teams.
Somebody has taught you well…
Villa are out at 2.44 on Betfair now.
0.2 shift.. in the opposite direction to what I felt reflected a fair price.
Safe to say I would be biting their hands off at 2.44 if I wasn’t already on this one.
Cheers
Those that want to can get out on the exchanges now at 1.5 for a healthy profit…
Boom! The hot streak continues. Christmas shopping less painful with free money
Great shout this one Blez – few worries at 90 minutes when brom had a chance to equalise but great result.
Blez!
1) I’m delighted I swerved the WBA back.
2) Having read your update whilst out, I did indeed back Villa to the tune of 3pts (especially after the price moved to 2.45)
3) This post is very useful to me as my big undoing is not always focussing on positive EV when scouting the coupon. Hence my WBA theory in the first place. Hopefully going forward I can get more adept at spotting the value and not chasing a price purely based on my feeling that someone is stronger than someone else. As said though in my original post, I did feel the 2.2 was about right for Villa given their form, but had that been the 2.45 I eventually got, I think I’d have been on it in a flash.
4) Free money!!
5) Not sure what general thoughts are on aftertiming but I’m doubly pleased today as a 40/1 Championship accy came in
Blez. What do you mean I an a fully fledged follower now. I have been die hard for a year now. Got quite lairy on this today. Coupled this with master minded in the tingle creek chase. Nice trip to the money factory today. Grows on trees on this website. Cheers Blez you are mega. Xxx
Guys, appreciate all the comments. Really makes the effort I put into all these things more worthwhile.
I was as happy with this post as I was the bet to be honest. /=/a good one for the beginners to read in the future I think.
Hopefully we can pull a few more people out of the woodwork… anyone else out there fantasy sticking their head above the parapet?!
Nice to keep the cash coming in. Another circa 2.5% up tick this weekend.
I have a few posts planned for next week, so hopefully it will be a busy week for BOTW.
I thought I would pull something together to run through the “next manager markets” in light of the Pardew/Hughton episode last week. I managed to make quite a lot of cash out of it personally, so thought it would be a good one to share.
I have a couple of other bits and bobs to post as well, so keep checking in.
Adios Amigos.
Blez, really thought those tables showed the value today – very helpful indeed.
Having watched MOTD I’ll stick with my assessment of that not being a proper derby.
Have to say Albrighton looks a tasty prospect. And thought Hansen and Lawrenceson were on classic form. “Bob Paisley would have been impressed with that” love Hansen.