I think we can say that with pretty confidently now.

I will confess, I got them totally wrong coming into this season.  Although it wasn’t a prediction with any substance – and I did stress that a full table prediction was only for a bit of fun – I predicted that they would survive by the skin of their teeth.

The Premier League table makes for interesting reading at the moment:

Check out the newly promoted teams.  The Geordies are absolutely flying with a 17 point haul from 11 games.

Soft fixture list was that I heard from the back?!

Far from it.  Their achievement is all the more impressive when you consider that they have been away to Manchester United, Arsenal, Manchester City and Everton.  That is four of the toughest five away games of the campaign in their first six.  And they have come out of those games alone with six points.  Before the season they wold have been delighted with three or four points.

Moving a little further down the table, you will see that both West Brom and the Tangerines aren’t doing too badly either, with 15 and 14 points respectively.

When I saw this it got me thinking and I went back to have a look at the Premier League in previous years after 10 games.  Here are some really interesting stats for you (if you like that sort of thing):

1. Since the Premier League moved to the current 20 team structure 15 years ago, 45 sides have been relegated.  Of those sides, more than half were sitting in the relegation zone 10 games into the season (23).
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2. Only once in the last 15 years have all three sides in the bottom three after 10 games managed to survive – in 2008/09 the bottom three consisted of Wigan, Bolton and Tottenham.  How quickly things change.  A tip of the cap to Messrs Redknapp and Coyle.
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3. Conversely, only once in the last 15 years have all of the bottom three after 10 games ended up going down – in 2006/07, Watford, Sheffield United and Charlton stunk up the joint from wire to wire, settling into the relegation zone in the middle of September after only 5 games!  Barry Crocker.
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4. Of the 45 sides promoted during this period, 21 have “yo-yo’ed” straight back down the the Championship.  Without meaning to kick a team while they are, quite literally, down, Crystal Palace are the answer to the trivia question.  Four Premier League appearance.  Four relegations.  But they did have a bald eagle and Paul Warhurst, so it can’t all be bad!
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5. Only once have all three promoted sides gone straight back down – in 1997/98. That was an incredibly hard done to Bolton side (anyone sad enough to remember this? Bolton went down… Everton stayed up), an incredibly Brazilianesque Barnsley side and… those aforementioned unfortunate chaps from South London!
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6. Again conversely, only once have all three promoted sides stayed up!  This was in 2001/02 – and they are all still here to this day.  Again, Bolton, along with Fulham and Blackburn have established themselves as solid Premiership outfits over the last 9 years.
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7. I thought this one was really interesting.  Only four teams have “plummeted” after starting as well as Blackpool in the last 15 years.  In the last two seasons Burnley and Middlesborough went down having chalked up 12 and 13 points respectively in their first 10 games.  Before that, you need to go back to Manchester City (14) in 2000/01 and Charlton (13) in 1998/99 to find teams that have imploded after a hot start.  I have to confess, this surprised me.  I really thought there would be more than that, although maybe my view was clouded by Burnley’s collapse still being fresh in the mind.

Implications

Anyway, so what does all this point to in relation to the faith of our entertaining new boys over the coming months?

Well, I expect Chris Hughton’s men to push for a top 10 place, but I doubt they will be able to keep pace with the top eight.

However, West Brom and Blackpool are still very much facing a relegation dogfight.

What makes me say that given everything we have just said?

Well, check out their respective goal differences.  -5 and -6.  Good for 16th and 17th in the league.

Despite chalking up a good few points, they both need to improve at the back (they hold the 17th and 20th defensive records) as without a serious improvement they will see a lot of those recent wins turning into draws and long stretches where they fail to chalk up three points.

For those who don’t fully buy into all my goal difference tittle tattle yet check out this table showing Burnley’s position after eleven games last season:

EPL Table as @ 31 October 2010

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pt
1	Chelsea	10	8	0	2	24	8	16	24
2	Manchester United	10	7	1	2	21	11	10	22
3	Arsenal	9	6	1	2	29	13	16	19
4	Tottenham Hotspur	10	6	1	3	21	14	7	19
5	Liverpool	10	6	0	4	24	13	11	18
6	Manchester City	9	5	3	1	18	11	7	18
7	Aston Villa	9	5	2	2	13	8	5	17
8	Sunderland	10	5	1	4	18	15	3	16
9	Stoke City	10	4	3	3	9	11	-2	15
10	Wigan Athletic	10	4	1	5	12	17	-5	13
11	Burnley	10	4	0	6	10	22	-12	12
12	Bolton Wanderers	9	3	2	4	14	15	-1	11
13	Fulham	9	3	2	4	10	12	-2	11
14	Everton	9	3	2	4	12	15	-3	11
15	Birmingham City	10	3	1	6	8	12	-4	10
16	Blackburn Rovers	9	3	1	5	11	22	-11	10
17	Wolves	10	2	3	5	9	16	-7	9
18	Hull City	10	2	2	6	8	22	-14	8
19	West Ham United	9	1	3	5	11	15	-4	6
20	Portsmouth	10	1	1	8	5	15	-10	4

Sitting pretty at the time, 12th in the league.  Living the dream, even beating Man United at Turf Moor.

But the 2nd worst goal difference in the league at -12, with only Hull City behind them.  And we know how it panned out for those two.

At this point I feel I should have some sort of “white liquid in a bottle rant”.  But I shall resist.

Ah, I miss Rafa, I really do.

Of the other plummeters, ‘Boro sat 9th in the table, but also carried a -5 goal difference which ranked them 17th, so Gareth and Steve should also probably have seen it coming.  If they had, they might have been able to rope El Tel back in from Spain as usual to keep them up.  Shame.

However, City and Charlton really did just “implode”.  They had 0 and +3 goal differences respectively after 10 games and looked to be heading for successful seasons.

City lost 6 games on the spin in rounds 11 – 16, and won only once in four months between rounds 10 and 27.  Ironically, a 5-0 spanking of Everton.  Some things never change.  Whilst the sun still shines, Man City will always remain an unpredictable liability!

Charlton managed a run of ten games over December and January where they only chalked up a solitary point, losing nine games.  How about that for some festive cheer for the Addicks fans!  Although they improved over the final months they never quite recovered from that spell and went down on the final day of the season.

It isn’t all bad mind

All this said, as long as they recognize where they really stand and don’t get too carried away, both West Brom and Blackpool still have a fighting chance of surviving.

The only thing that is certain is that I will really enjoy watching the scrap unfold.

I am predicting that six or seven teams will all be fearing for their lives with two games to go and an absolute barnstorming final day.

And it will make for great viewing for an elitist, big four supporting snob/”neutral” such as myself!

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