Evening peoples.

Firstly, apologies for the data used in this piece being one week out of date.  It doesn’t really impact its effectiveness.

In fact, hell, use it as an opportunity to fire up the old grey matter and see if you can remember the results for the corresponding fixtures from 2009-10 of those played this weekend past.

As I permanently harp on about here at BOTW, everything in the world is relative.

This doesn’t just apply to football, betting or football betting.

Almost everything in life is relative.  The value of your house, the cost of the latest TV, the state of the Irish economy, the quality of Wagner’s singing ability.  They are all only quantified by making a judgement based on a comparison to similar or related things.

So, when we are looking at a football team’s results part way through a season, one interesting thing rarely considered is how the fixture list is unwinding.  As inherently, every team has played a different set of games.

There is no comparison that can be made that is flawless.  But one thing I always like to do is track a teams progress compared to their results from the corresponding fixtures last year.

Now, obviously three of the Premier League teams are obviously different from last season. If you are confused, this should help.

Rather than simply exclude these three teams altogether, and the fixtures involving the corresponding teams from last year, for the sake of the analysis I have simply substituted teams 18-20 from last season (namely Burnley, Hull and Portsmouth) for the newly promoted sides (Newcastle, West Brom and Blackpool).

Although far from perfect, given that “those in the know” predicted that both Blackpool and West Brom would sink like stones this year, their respective performances levels shouldn’t be too dramatically different in most circumstances…

So, with over a third of the season now gone, let’s see how everyone is getting on versus last season…

Direct results comparison – 2010/11 versus 2009/10

Team	2010/11						2009/10						Analysis
	P	W	D	L	Pts	GD	P	W	D	L	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
Chelsea	13	9	1	3	28	20	13	8	2	3	26	24	2	-4
Arsenal	13	8	2	3	26	14	13	10	0	3	30	25	-4	-11
Man United	13	6	7	0	25	11	13	10	1	2	31	19	-6	-8
Man City	13	6	4	3	22	5	13	6	4	3	22	9	0	-4
Tottenham	13	5	4	4	19	1	13	8	3	2	27	11	-8	-10
Sunderland	13	4	7	2	19	2	13	3	3	7	12	-13	7	15
Bolton	13	4	7	2	19	2	13	2	4	7	10	-13	9	15
Aston Villa	13	4	5	4	17	-3	13	6	7	0	25	12	-8	-15
Stoke	13	5	1	7	16	-3	13	2	7	4	13	-7	3	4
Liverpool	13	4	4	5	16	-4	13	6	2	5	20	9	-4	-13
Everton	13	3	6	4	15	1	13	6	3	4	21	-1	-6	2
Blackburn	13	4	3	6	15	-3	13	4	3	6	15	-7	0	4
Wigan	13	3	5	5	14	-11	13	4	4	5	16	-6	-2	-5
Fulham	13	2	8	3	14	0	13	3	5	5	14	-3	0	3
Birmingham	13	2	7	4	13	-3	13	6	2	5	20	-3	-7	0
Wolves	13	2	3	8	9	-10	13	4	4	5	16	-11	-7	1
West Ham	13	1	6	6	9	-11	13	4	3	6	15	0	-6	-11
Newcastle / Burnley	13	5	3	5	18	5	13	1	4	8	7	-13	11	18
Hull / West Brom	13	4	4	5	16	-6	13	3	1	9	10	-19	6	13
Blackpool / Pompey	13	4	3	6	15	-7	13	2	2	9	8	-13	7	6

Observations

As I said… in most circumstances!

Some have complained that the EPL has been a little drab so far this season, with nobody “setting the league alight”.

Well, I disagree.

The three promoted sides have well and truly set the league alight.

It’s just not as easy for the football media to report on.  So much for everyone wanting to see healthy competition.  Sometimes I think the media would just prefer a two horse soap opera like they have in La Liga at the moment and as non Man United/Arsenal fans had to endure in the from 1997  to 2003.

On a cumulative basis, the three promoted sides have amassed a staggering 24 more points than last year’s dross over the same corresponding fixtures. With a mind boggling +37 better goal difference.

And this isn’t a case of fixture list bias remember, as this is a game by game comparison.  Nor is it a case of one or two dodgy results skewing the results.  Let’s have a look at each of the three in turn:

Blackpool

Due to the issues the were facing getting Bloomfield Road up to scratch, Ian Holloway’s men played 8 of their first 13 games away from home.  And 6 of those were trips to Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Newcastle, Villa and Birmingham!

Irrespective of form, there are no easy points from those fixtures.  None.

But the Tangerines managed to chalk up 10 points from the 8 games.

To put that in perspective, that is as many as Burnley and Hull managed COMBINED throughout the entire campaign last year.  In only 8 games, which included 4 of the top 8.

That is absolutely magical.  Top banana.  The stuff dreams are made of.  As Ian Holloway would probably say.

Newcastle United

When they aren’t frolicking with coked up Geordie scallies, getting their cars torched or getting into fights, the Toon Army have also been running around the country making a mockery of the form book.

In their 7 away games (which have included trips to Arsenal, Man United, Man City and Everton) Chris Hughton’s men have also bagged 10 points.  Top half form, no doubt.

West Brom

West Brom have probably had the toughest away fixtures of the trio, having already been to Old Trafford, The Emirates, Stamford Bridge and Anfield so far this season.

They have managed to bring in 5 points from 7 away fixtures in total.   Now relative to their fellow promotes that doesn’t look too impressive.  But remember, that is still more away points than Burnley managed all campaign and only one short of Tango Brown’s Hull side.

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What is so refreshing is that, not only have these supposed lesser sides achieved such fantastic results, but they have all done so whilst playing great attacking (if sometimes bordering on suicidal) football.  The three sides rank 5th, 6th and 12th respectively in goals scored so far this season.

In this odd relative world, these three are all without a doubt sitting pretty in the imaginary Champions League spots at the moment.

So where have all these additional points come from then?

What goes up, must come down.  And all that Jazz.

So who have these newbies been burgling all these points off?

Given their current league positions, it is to be expected that both Wolves (-7) and West Ham (-6) would be down on their luck, as they indeed are.

However, one of the most noticeable things to me is how much the big guns are struggling.

In fact, last year’s top 9 are a staggering cumulative 41 points down from their corresponding fixtures last season, with only Chelsea having improved on their haul.  And even their 2 point improvement was also chopped in half on Saturday at St Andrews, where they drew 0-0 last season.

A number of  teams are generally treading water (Man City, Blackburn, Wigan and Fulham) and are a point or so from breaking even.

And then there are three teams that appear to have improved considerably from last year; Bolton, Sunderland and to a lesser extent, Stoke.

Bolton

Bolton chalked up 9 extra points from the same 13 fixtures as last year, improving their goal differences by a whopping 15 goals.

Owen Coyle is an awesome manager.  They now have a team (half) full of internationals.

But still nobody really saw this coming.

Oh hang on a minute…

Sunderland

Sunderland have amassed 7  more points than last year and they have also improved their goal differences by a whopping 15 goals.

So, now when you look at this, all those pundits and newspaper claims of “how on earth could you ever see that coming?” with respect to Sunderland’s 3-0 win over a depleted Chelsea side at Stamford Bridge 10 days ago, don’t look that clued up do they?

And nor do the bookies, given that they gave out 19/1 on the Sunderland win.  A Sunderland side that is possibly the most improved side in the league.  A Sunderland side that had a Ballon D’Or nominated striker upfront against a makeshift centre back who happens to be 5′ 8″.

Stoke

Tony Pulis’ men, although only 3 points up on this year have definitely been playing well this season.  They have had a real lack of the rub of the green, but have still managed to win games.  If they don’t match their 11th place finish from last year, they won’t be far off.

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Where do we go from here?

No doubt we will see a little regression.  13 games is a very small sample after all.

Bolton aren’t going to finish 5th.  West Ham aren’t going to get 25 points.

However, pretty much everything else is fair game.

So, as Anton Du Beke would say… Bring on the games!!!

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