Archive for November, 2010
One afternoon last week I received a viral email from a particularly diligent and hard working colleague at work. It turned out that on this occasion, rather than rating a number of women from a large accountancy firm, I was to be challenged on my football trivia knowledge.
Although you may not believe me, as it turned out that neither Nick Barmby nor Christian Ziege were legitimate answers.
I was tasked with drumming up the Premier League appearance record holder for each letter of the alphabet, by surname.
I am sure many of you reading this that also work in an office environment will have received the same email. Forget wikileaks, the speed with which a sports trivia email can whizz around the entire developed world shows the true power of t’interwebs.
After managing to come up with about 20 of the 26 answers, I was beginning to grind to a halt. And due to time restrictions, rather than setting up a alphabet/position matrix, I decided to hit the FA’s website and do a spot of research (AKA cheating).
Short and sweet today I am afraid. There is nothing that really excites me on the coupon – from a value perspective.
However, there are a great set of fixtures in the Championship today – not a single team are odds on! Should make for some great action for the spectators.
I am going to have two very small wagers. The shortest of the teams in the second tier is Reading at home to Leeds. If you want the rationale, I guess it is easier to check out last week’s post.
Reading have just finished a run of really tough games, having played league leaders QPR (a) and Cardiff (h) followed by the solid Norwich (h) and dangerous Watford (a) so far this month.
My second bet will no doubt be a bit of a contraversial one.
Firstly, apologies for the data used in this piece being one week out of date. It doesn’t really impact its effectiveness.
In fact, hell, use it as an opportunity to fire up the old grey matter and see if you can remember the results for the corresponding fixtures from 2009-10 of those played this weekend past.
As I permanently harp on about here at BOTW, everything in the world is relative.
This doesn’t just apply to football, betting or football betting.
Almost everything in life is relative. The value of your house, the cost of the latest TV, the state of the Irish economy, the quality of Wagner’s singing ability. They are all only quantified by making a judgement based on a comparison to similar or related things.
So, when we are looking at a football team’s results part way through a season, one interesting thing rarely considered is how the fixture list is unwinding. As inherently, every team has played a different set of games.
There is no comparison that can be made that is flawless. But one thing I always like to do is track a teams progress compared to their results from the corresponding fixtures last year.
Now, obviously three of the Premier League teams are obviously different from last season. If you are confused, this should help.
Rather than simply exclude these three teams altogether, and the fixtures involving the corresponding teams from last year, for the sake of the analysis I have simply substituted teams 18-20 from last season (namely Burnley, Hull and Portsmouth) for the newly promoted sides (Newcastle, West Brom and Blackpool).
Although far from perfect, given that “those in the know” predicted that both Blackpool and West Brom would sink like stones this year, their respective performances levels shouldn’t be too dramatically different in most circumstances…
So, with over a third of the season now gone, let’s see how everyone is getting on versus last season…
Lively day today, with 13 goals in the three fixtures I went for directly, with a further 6 at the Reebok in the game I tipped earlier in the week.
Although Norwich’s failure to press home their advantage at Carrow Road and take all three points in the second half means that today is a -2 pt day, I can’t help but feel that by seasons’ end that today will have been a profitable day for BOTW.
A 6 point day for Bolton and Birmingham is a great result. Hopefully some of you had Bolton as a seperate bet today too, as I did myself. They should be through the 50 point forecast now on Sporting Index, good for a forecast 10 point profit.
And McLeish’s men have also jumped up to a comfortable mid table position after their hard fought victory over (dirty) Chelsea. Roman, that will teach you to fire Ray Wilkins.
Three losses in their last four now. Comedy. And who said Frank Lampard isn’t a world class footballer eh?!
Two more goals for Johan Elmander move him up to 8 for the campaign level at the top with Andy Carroll. That doesn’t look like too bad a 7/2 shout now does it? Kevin Davies is in touch on 6 goals, so we do need JE to stay post January for this to stand a chance.
Ah yes, Andy Carroll. BOTW are on that one too, at evens to top score for Newcastle! Although Kevin Nolan has been doing his best to make us sweat in recent weeks, I hope Carroll is back at the top of the NUFC scoring charts for good now.
Blackburn finishing above West Ham is already in the bag, as is Alex McLeish still being in charge at St Andrews come May.
Down in League 1, a win for Southampton and a point for Brighton keep our positions looking healthy, although far from locks. Charlton appear to be posing quite a threat.
The only position which looks under material threat if for Everton to be “the best of the rest”. But when such a bet is going to lose because the team you went long on 40.5 points may actually chalk up 55+ then you don’t need to worry too much…
Enjoy your Saturday night folks. I am staying off the X Factor this week and going out for a few jars…
What a strange turn up for the books this is. For once I actually have three (3) bets for you. What are the chances?
There is also a slightly spooky twist to the selections. See if you notice what it is before you get to the footnotes…