Archive for September, 2010
Positive feedback
Posted by: | CommentsIt is always nice to get some positive feedback isn’t it?
The wife telling you you look slimmer, the boss commenting on how good a job you have done.
Or the bookies changing all their prices after your selections!
Last week I popped up three selections on the Premier League specials markets here.
Well, within a few hours of me wading in it seems someone at Victor Chandler finally pulled their finger out of their ass and did something about them.
Check out the current prices for these markets:
|
Market |
Old odds | % | New odds | % | Absolute Change | % change |
|
Carroll |
evens | 50% | 4/6 | 60% | 10% | 20% |
|
McLeish |
4/7 | 64% | 1/5 | 83% | 19% | 30% |
|
Elmander |
7/2 | 22% | 9/4 | 31% | 9% | 38% |
.
That is some pretty direct feedback that we “got on” at “good” prices!
They have materially shifted the odds for all three markets to the tune of a 10%+ implied chance increase, with the odds of Alex McLeish plummeting after he signed a new three year deal yesterday.
One of these bets probably won’t win, with the Elmander selection in particular carrying plenty of risk. But if you are continually getting on at good prices, we all know what happens in the long run.
Cher-ching!
Dipping a toe
Posted by: | CommentsI am still not diving in head first this week but I think I might dip my toe in just to keep us interested.
I am finding it hard to get a good grasp of a number of teams true performance levels yet. Is anyone else finding the same?
Of all the divisions, the Premier League is starting to take shape the most and things should be even more orderly after this weekend’s games.
Arbitraging sports markets – NL West
Posted by: | CommentsEvening all. How is everybody keeping?
If you followed my baseball selections this season, you could be forgiven for thinking I have never seen a game in my life.
I would like to assure you that is most definitely not the case! I have actually watched in excess of 1,000 games of baseball in the last ten years – a number far in excess of the number of football matches I have watched in my life!
I am aware the site has been a bit quiet since the EPL preview series and the frequency of my more detailed posts has dropped. It still isn’t the best time to be diving into the football leagues yet and there haven’t been too many other things about for me to write about.
However, I stumbled across something tonight which I thought it was worthwhile sharing.
There is currently an opportunity to arbitrage one of the baseball division winner markets.
Newcastle v Blackpool
Posted by: | CommentsAs I said on the twitter feed earlier, I am taking the 8/13 on Newcastle today. Nothing too big at this stage in the season, but going to push it out to 2pts.
Hope everyone enjoys the weekend’s action.
The Championship coupon looks like a ca crash waiting to happen…
Cheers.
BOTW: 2pts on Newcastle to beat Blackpool @ 8/13
Good things come to those who wait
Posted by: | CommentsSorry it has been a bit quiet on the BOTW front recently guys.
I am still in “scoping” mode at the moment and whilst I am keeping my eyes and ears to the ground, I will be keeping my money in my pocket again this weekend.
It is very easy to dig yourself a bit of a hole over the first 5-6 games of the season by being a bit gung-ho, and that can mean you spend a large chunk of the Autumn repairing unnecessary damage rather than raking in profits.
That said, this will probably be the last week in which I don’t place any “normal” football bets, so expect to see the staple weekly columns back from next week.
As for this weekends action, games immediately after international breaks can be a bit of a mixed bag, so be careful if loading up on any of the strong favourites.
Totally off topic, I have just got stuck into a few of Victor Chandler’s football specials markets. I am not giving you the war and peace rationale behind these ones, so instead it would be good to get everyone elses thoughts on them.
If you guys are lucky I may be back again later with something small for tomorrow. But I wouldn’t hold your breathe if I was you.
BOTW: 10pts on Alex McLeish to still be Birmingham City manager on 22nd May @ 4/7
5pts on Andy Carroll to be Newcastle’s top Premier League goalscorer @ evens
2pt on Johan Elmander tobe Bolton’s top Premier League goalscorer @ 7/2
.