Sep
25
Funkbuster
ByThe gambling spirits came and spoke to me in the night. I quote directly:
“It will be a mixed day for the people of the Cymru. I expect Lion’s to be slain on the banks of the Taff and XI white swans to be drowned in the Trent.”
Creepy.
Let’s see if this spiritual intervention can rid us of our current funk.
BOTW: 3pts on Cardiff to beat Millwall @ 5/6, 3pts on Nottingham Forest to beat Swansea @ 13/10
Joking aside, I thought I best put a comment on to prove there is some logic behind these selections.
Millwall and Forest are two teams I have down to show some material regression in the coming weeks.
I felt something in my waters for the Lions last week and if I am honest a trip to face a team with the attacking prowess of the Blues is the last thing they need. i can’t see Millwall keeping them out for long.
And Forest are your classic regression case. Early season favourites, opening up with a rash of draws to suppress their points total.
Opening up with home games against the three promoted sides is often seen as an easy start. However, this is one year that that is certainly not the case, with all two of the three teams expected to be top half teams (Norwich and Leeds) and the other being a combative Millwall side (whom Forest battered for most of the game…)
I looked in my historic database and Forest were generally quoted at 1.95 – 2.00 for the relevant fixture last year. Given how focussed they will be after their start I think 2.3 is a cracking price.
In fact, I am going to balance out my stakes on this one…
Like the look of the cardiff one blez.
As for Forest, I get nervous about backing home teams at such a big price – no science behind it as such but have just come unstuck a few times.
I really like Birmingham (5/6) today. Know Wigan are about as unpredictable as you can get but Brum look so strong at home. And I think Wigan are just a pretty bad team.
Will be boosting this with Burnley (7/10) who should be far too good for Bristol CIty.
Glad to see I have firmly passed the “0-0″ curse on to somebody new SWAT.
Enjoy it. I am sure in a week or two it will get bored and hop away onto someone else’s back instead…
nice work today, two solid wins by the look of things too..
Yeah cheers Dayno. Pulled back last weeks loss.
Onwards and upwards.
Tampa Bay smoking it too which will bring in another 4.6 pts profit I think too.