Archive for September, 2010
AL East Update
Posted by: | CommentsIf you haven’t read my post on advanced pricing, click here. Buried in there somewhere is a punt on the Tampa Bay Rays to win the AL East from last week.
This was pretty much the definition of a “+EV” selection.
Please do read it and understand the principles discussed if you haven’t done so already. Doing so will save you a lot of money in the long run! The fact that the piece is about baseball is completely irrelevant and all the principles apply to sports betting across the spectrum – and more traditional forms of investment for that matter.
And it certainly didn’t take as long to turn around as I anticipated…
http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/american-league-east/winner
Funkbuster
Posted by: | CommentsThe gambling spirits came and spoke to me in the night. I quote directly:
“It will be a mixed day for the people of the Cymru. I expect Lion’s to be slain on the banks of the Taff and XI white swans to be drowned in the Trent.”
Creepy.
Advanced Pricing – update
Posted by: | CommentsJust a very quick one.
Here is a better example of the over-round being allocated to the outsider within a market.
Today’s NL West prices from Bet365 have a 10% over-round in them and most of it is with the outside shout of the Colorado Rockies. 13/2 at this stage is a criminal price and I wouldn’t touch it with a bargepole.
NL West winner market as @ 5pm on 23 September
|
Selection |
Implied % |
BP – standard |
BP – PECOTA |
BP – ELO |
BP – Average |
Difference |
| San Diego Padres |
56% |
58% |
47% |
50% |
52% |
-4% |
| San Francisco Giants |
41% |
37% |
45% |
45% |
42% |
+1% |
| Colorado Rockies |
13% |
5% |
7% |
5% |
6% |
-7% |
| Total | 110% |
Although the -4% and the -7% may not look too dissimilar at first glance, once you consider the error in relative terms (56% v 52%) and (13% v 6%) you can see how out of whack the Rockies price is. You would be looking for about 16/1 before you would contemplate backing the Rockies at this point!
Back tomorrow with “something for the weekend” ladies and gents.
Cheers.
Advanced Pricing
Posted by: | CommentsI did a piece last year explaining the basics of how the bookies go about pricing sporting events, which covered traditional and decimal odds, implied win % and the “over-round”. Check it out here if you haven’t read it.
As you should all have gathered by now given how much I bang on about it, the current MLB season is reaching a crescendo and a couple of the divisions are “goin’ down to the why-ar”, as Sid Waddell would say.
Whilst that is exiting for baseball nuts like myself, I am aware everyone else is a little “Roy Hodgson style” ambivalent. You have to love Roy. So very refreshing.
However, you’ll be glad to know it has given me a couple of great examples of how the bookies go about pricing these things.
The Atkins Diet
Posted by: | CommentsI thought I best pop a note up about my recent form. As you may have noticed, BOTW is currently going through a bit of a losing streak.
In fact, those of you that are long term followers will have recognized that BOTW is going through its worst losing streak in 15 months online – although, that said there have only been two such streaks!
Please do accept my sincere apologies for this – especially those amongst you that have recently jumped on board.
Personally, I haven’t been running too badly, but as I have referred to a couple of times, a few of my recent wins have been and gone before I could get them online.
These wins have meant that my personal fund has only taken a small hit (less than 10%) whilst BOTW’s profitability has taken a much larger whack. Not a David Haye style Haymaker. More of a short, sharp Barry McGuigan slap to the chops.
But whatever it was, it is certainly stinging a little that is for sure. Read More→