OK I think that is certainly more than enough analysis for now.

Let’s get onto the more subjective side and have a look at a few sides in more detail and determine whether or not there is any value for us to exploit.

Before I get onto my actual selections, I will just have a quick run through a few “close calls” that have failed to make the cut.

After all, when striving to be a profitable sports bettor, the bets you don’t make are just as important as the bets you do make.

Arsenal

I was very, very close to backing Arsenal to finish above Manchester City this season at what was 11/10 last week which is now generally priced at evens or 10/11.

Surprise surprise, Arsene Wenger has been very shrewd in the transfer market as ever this summer and has strengthened his first team (not his squad – there is a difference) in their exact areas of weakness (Centre back, Centre forward) with the acquisitions of Marouane Chamakh and Laurent Koscielny.

It’s a novel approach someone should maybe pass on to Roberto Mancini and Garry Cook.  Look at the players you have, determine which are good enough and which aren’t, where you have options to develop younger squad members and therefore in which areas you are exposed.

Then bring in players to fill the required holes.

Or, you could just grab a copy of each European League’s fantasy football player list and buy a random host of players using a complete scattergun approach.  Surely it will be just as effective, right?!

Sadly, the injury crisis facing the Gooners has shied me away from taking the plunge on this one.  Once you factor in the inherent element of danger of any bet involving an unpredictable and unprecedented setup such as the one at Manchester City, I couldn’t justify taking the position.

But I will be back to say “I told you so” in May no doubt.  And depending on what Arseanl produce tomorrow I may well be taking them for the title at 7’s, given what we discovered yesterday about the number of points last year’s young gunners accumulated against the bottom 16 sides.

But, for now, I am standing pat.

Blackburn

Again, Blackburn were almost one of my selections for the season ahead..  I love the reliability of Sam Allardyce’s teams and I expect them to show a much greater ability to chalk up a points both on their off days and away from fortress Ewood next season.

I think they are a great striker away from really kicking on and becoming a candidate for those 9^th and 10^th spots.  I expect some regression, but not as much as the 6-7 points Sporting Index are forecasting.

However, given the instability of the club ownership, the high injury risk of key players such as Gazza Dunn and slight lack of fire power, they have been cast away onto the “nearly” pile.

Drum roll please… Here are the eagerly awaited, and by now rather predictable BOTW positions for the 2010-11 EPL season…

Birmingham City

Not Birmingham.  Birmingham City.  Show some respect for our new BOTW figurehead.

For 36 games of the coming season, I am going to be in full BCFC supporting mode.

I can see very few reasons to suggest that Birmingham should fall foul to what we often refer to as “Second Season Syndrome” and the American’s call a “Sophomore Slump”.

Let’s get one thing straight here.  Birmingham City are not, in any way, shape, or form, anything like Hull City.

Birmingham City are already a well established Premier League team, with a growing squad of proven Premier League (if somewhat unfashionable) players.

They had the 9^th best defensive record last season as a result of a very solid midfield setup as much as the qualities of the workmanlike back four.  The exit of Joe Hart will be noticed, however with Ben Foster brought in as a replacement I would suggest this is only a 1-2 goal downgrade at most.

Alex McLeish’s men ranked 15^th last season as an attacking force, averaging only 1.00 goal a game.

However, not only do I feel this is a slight anomaly, indicated by their significantly better offensive performances away from home (8^th away from St Andrews versus 18^th at home), but they have made a significant first team upgrade by acquiring 6ft 8inch striker Nikola Zigic.

Identify your area of weakness and improve it.  Simples.

In Alex McLeish they have a quality manager, who is still developing but looks set to be a mainstay in the English top flight for the long term.  He strikes me as being professional and astute yet dogged and more than prepared to “do a job” on a team when necessary.

One of my main motivations for making this selection is that I have determined it to have very low downside risk.  The main concerns with the squad would be regression from aging players such as Lee Bowyer and Barry Ferguson.

However, I think they have a number of massively underrated and developing players, particularly the impressive Swede Sebastian Larsson, who at 25 could still develop into a World Class player.

A number of other players are just entering their prime or are developing fast, such as Roger Johnson (27), Scot Dann (23) and Craig Gardner (23).

Hell, even Camerone Jerome (23) showed flashes of being top half quality last season and I still hold some hope that James McFadden (27) will fulfil all the early promise eventually and posses a 10 goal threat from midfield.

Even Liam Ridgewell who, despite looking about 34,only just turned 26 last week and is vastly underrated.

With Carson Yeung’s supporting the club their appears to be very low risk of a fire sale ever being needed  and the regime is promising to support the club and invest in new players.

They are a prime candidate to splash a bit of cash in January if they need to improve to stay up, or, as I expect, push on to try and secure a European spot.

There are  ongoing rumours linking the club with players such as Ryan Babel, and I think a number of the current City rejects such as Craig Bellamy could do a lot worse than head down the M6 to Birmingham – from purely a footballing perspective of course!

Both the goal difference analysis and the points analysis yesterday threw up nothing at all to indicate that Birmingham’s mid table finish was either fortuitous or exposed to regression, with them hitting reasonable points totals against each of the 4 mini leagues.

I expect their away form to improve this season as they develop confidence as a team and use Zigic’s presence to scrap for a few points where necessary.

For me, all is rosey in the BCFC garden and Sporting Index have got this one all wrong.

Bolton Wanderers

My second selection for the upcoming season is Owen Coyle’s Bolton Wanderers.

Bolton have been on my radar as far back as April for this season, when I noticed Coyle starting to get a grip on his team.

The team’s style has changed completely from the dark days of Gary Megson and I expect them to be a very different outfit in 2011.

They have made possibly the signing of the summer by picking up Martin Petrov on a free transfer and if he stays fit I expect him to make a huge impact.

Lee Chung-Yong is a hugely underrated player who has the ability to play in the Champions League.

Coyle did not get to call on Gary Cahill for most of his tenure last season, but with the young centre back fully fit and at the heart of the defence The Trotter’s should be a more solidified outfit.

When you consider that Coyle can also call on well established Premiership players such as Matt Taylor, everyone’s favourite footballer and Club Captain Kevin Davies and the still effective Jussi Jaaskelainen between the sticks and you have a very solid basis for a team.

Throw in a bit of development for talented players such as Tamir Cohen and a bit of regression fro m Johan Elmander and you have what looks to me like a team capable of finishing in those 9^th and 10^th places in the league.

And because after 300+ games for the Lilywhites, it would be a disgrace not to mention him, let;s not forget that Coyle can still count on Sir Ricardo Gardner to produce at least one moment of absolute magi each season , without exception

And if they manage to get Jack Wilshire back on loan… well then we really could see a surprise package in the top half of the table come next May.

Conclusion

So there we have it guys… keen to know your thoughts on these and lets here everyone elses tips for the new season.

It would be great to get your thoughts on this series as a whole on this post in the comments, and I have opened an associated Forum Thread to this article to gather up everybody’s ten cents on the season ahead.

The new season is upon us… Hurrah!

I’ll be back later tonight with a full EPL forecast for the season ahead for a bit of fun.. no more hard earned beer tokens will be being put at risk though!

Adios amigos.

BOTS: 2pts Buy Birmingham City @ 43.5 (Sporting Index) and 1pt Buy Bolton Wanderers @ 41.5 (Sporting Index)

<Click here for BOTW’s full EPL forecast>