Another successful weekend for BOTW.  Victories for Brighton (5/6) and Bolton (5/4) in addition to Man City’s failure to win at Upton Park (10/9), have run our current (mini) win streak to five selections.

Although still quite some way from the heady days of 16/17 winners over the festive period, this has been a particularly pleasing end to the season, especially given that all five of these selections were 7/10 or longer.

Sadly, this hasn’t translated into material profits due to the suppressed stakes to protect against the (supposed) unpredictable nature of this time of the year.  Law of the sod.

Although the football season has come to an end, fear not my fair feathered gambling friends. I will still be posting regularly and I am constantly scavenging around for badly priced things for us to back.

There will no doubt be a number of opportunities during the MLB season and I am sure I will find something juicy for the World Cup eventually – although I must confess, nothing stands out at the moment – suggestions on a postcard.

Then it will then be July before we know it and time to start another round of research for the ante-post markets and, my favourite, the transfer specials.  It never stops to be honest!

I will put together a few specials, such as season reviews, 2011 forecasts or even more theory based pieces is their is an appetite for it?

If anyone has anything in particular they would like to hear about drop me an email, or better still, post a comment.

In addition, I will post some analysis of my/our performance throughout the season to ensure we tighten up at the back next season and learn from our mistakes.

I’d like to take this opportunity to say thanks to everyone who has followed throughout the season, it has been a pleasure.

Special thanks to those that have chipped in with comments and suggestions in recent weeks.  I really hope to increase the readership of the site next season and begin to build the site into a hub for all of the rationally inclined gamblers out there to come and share their ideas – and the associated profits!

…Hang on, what’s that I hear from the back? Mug’s game, you say? The bookie always wins? You’ll be lucky to break even, eh?!  Shhhhh…

I knew the situation wasn’t great.  However, having now done my research for the final time this domestic season, even “clutching at straws” seems to be a bit of a stretch.  There may be one straw left.  At best.

Chelsea to beat Wigan at home this week is the surest thing to come out of my model throughout the entire season.  That’s right, the most likely victory all season long.

Not even any of our old favourites such as Notts County, Newport County, Rochdale or Millwall have come close to such dominance over their respective opponents as Chelsea hold this Sunday.

That said, Wigan are an unpredictable bunch at the best of times.  Just ask Arsene Wenger.  Therefore, my first bet of the day is to hedge my outstanding position on Chelsea to win the league.

As proved midweek by Spurs’ victory at TCOMS, it is always worth hedging a long term position when you are well ahead of the game.  Don’t get greedy.  Don’t take unnecessary risks.

If you are betting for the buzz, get down the horses or the dog track.  Personally, I am here to make some cash and be as dull as possible whilst doing it.  And that is why we made a 1pt profit out of a losing bet on Man City to finish 4th.  :-)

Chelsea can be laid at 1.11 on Betfair, so I shall cover my 15 pt exposure with a 15 pt lay, with at a cost of 1.65 pts of possible profit.  It is important to note that I am not locking in a guaranteed profit here, simply derisking the position.  If Chelsea slip up and the title heads back to Old Trafford on Sunday, I will simply have a break-even position.

Anyway, moving on to this weekend.  As you probably anticipated, I am not a very big fan of the last day of the season.  75% of the games are going to be a bit of a farce and as a result makes them impossible to bet on.

I am also avoiding all of the relegation battles.  It just isn’t worth the effort to try and price in all the possible intangibles.  Historical data becomes a lot less valuable  in such situations.

However, I am going to place three small wagers, all of which come with a health warning.  And I won’t be giving you 400 words of analysis to back up my selections, because… there isn’t any.

I am going with the gut and very little else this week.

My first selection is for a much improved Brighton side to beat Yeovil down at the Withdean.  The seagulls have a diabolical home record, however I think they will chalk up a rare victory on Saturday at what looks an overpriced 5/6.

Gus Poyet’s men are a sneaky one to watch for next season.  I think they will end up in the playoff mix in what will be a weakened division.  Whilst we are on that subject of League 1, do we think they are going to be taking bets on how many points Southampton are going to win League 1 by next season?!

My final two selections of the domestic season are sneaky little 1/2 pt punts.  I think Bolton, also much improved after a mid season change of direction, could be the Premier League’s surprise package in 2010 – 2011, and I think they can finish on a high by beating Birmingham on Sunday at what seems an big 5/4.  Given that Birmingham have only won two of their last ten games I think this is a good price, particularly when you consider that those two victories were against Burnley and Portsmouth.

The Blues deserve a lot of credit for their solid performances all campaign and probably deserve the off season break more than anyone else. Let’s hope mentally they are already on holiday.

My final selection of the year involves the same side I backed with my first selection way back in August (Man City to win away at Ewood Park), however this time I will be opposing City rather than supporting.

10/11 for a demoralized and demotivated team, which have seen their season implode in the last 3 weeks, away from home is not too appealing to me.

I think there is a chance that West Ham will play with a freedom they have not enjoyed for most of the season and I think they will be good for at least 1 goal.  As a result, I am going to lay Man City on Betfair at 1.93.

All of these selections are as much for fun as profitablity, however I don’t think any of them are poor or hopeful selections.  All in all, they are probably break even selections, however for one last week I am going to enjoy myself a little.

If anyone has anything more enticing they would like me to consider, please do fire away.

Cheers

HOTW: 15pt lay of Chelsea to win the league @ 1.11

BOTW: 1pt on Brighton to beat Yeovil @ 1.83

0.5 pt on Bolton to beat Birmingham @ 2.25

0.5pt lay of Man City @ West Ham @ 1.93

Apologies for the relatively quiet radio in recent weeks ladies and gentlemen.

Although the season is still alive and well, with the illustrious 4th Champions League place still at stake, as well as the fantastic promotion battle down in League 1, with most relegation/promotion places settled across the country, I cannot help but feel the season has fizzled out somewhat – especially for me personally.

That could obviously all change come Sunday afternoon at Anfield, but I am not holding out too much hope.  From the moment that a certain Mr Rooney turned his ankle in the Olympic Stadium in Munich, things seemed to have gone from bad to worse for Man United, with the rather bizarre sequence of events having  left me rather flat.

You can be as rational and focussed as you like with respect to gambling selections, but unfortunately it is much harder to keep motivated during such times as a fan.

I am trying to stick with the fight, however irrespective of the result at Anfield this weekend, I can honestly say I am quite looking forward to this season being over.

Blimey, rather melancholic tonight aren’t I?!

Here’s to a United title, a Spurs 4th place (purely for self preservation purposes) and Millwall pipping Dirty Leeds to 2nd spot in League One! We can all dream… Now let’s get back to the gambling!

As suggested in last weeks post, I have to agree with Not Nixon that the 8/11 still around for Huddersfield to beat struggling Colchester is good value.  Sadly I have been too slow recently due to being busy with work, and the initial 4/5 had gone before I got around to looking at the coupon.

The Terriers still really need to win this game, even though it may not appear so at first glance.  Nobody in their right mind would want to face Leeds or Millwall over Charlton/Swindon in the playoffs.  So, although the playoff position is in the bag, the game remains almost as important as the previous 44.

Another team that represent good value this weekend are Reading.  The Royals are a revitalised and different club under Brian McDermott, who has worked wonders since he was in charge.  The same unfortunately cannot be said for the early months of Darren Ferguson’s reign at Preston.

These two clubs have been heading in the opposite directions in 2010, and I can see the trend continuing this weekend.

Everything at this stage of the season comes with a slight health warning, so make sure you keep your stakes low this weekend.

BOTW: 2pts on Huddersfield to beat Colchester @ 8/11

2pts on Reading to beat Preston @ 7/10