One last hurrahBy
I knew the situation wasn’t great. However, having now done my research for the final time this domestic season, even “clutching at straws” seems to be a bit of a stretch. There may be one straw left. At best.
Chelsea to beat Wigan at home this week is the surest thing to come out of my model throughout the entire season. That’s right, the most likely victory all season long.
Not even any of our old favourites such as Notts County, Newport County, Rochdale or Millwall have come close to such dominance over their respective opponents as Chelsea hold this Sunday.
That said, Wigan are an unpredictable bunch at the best of times. Just ask Arsene Wenger. Therefore, my first bet of the day is to hedge my outstanding position on Chelsea to win the league.
As proved midweek by Spurs’ victory at TCOMS, it is always worth hedging a long term position when you are well ahead of the game. Don’t get greedy. Don’t take unnecessary risks.
If you are betting for the buzz, get down the horses or the dog track. Personally, I am here to make some cash and be as dull as possible whilst doing it. And that is why we made a 1pt profit out of a losing bet on Man City to finish 4th. :-)
Chelsea can be laid at 1.11 on Betfair, so I shall cover my 15 pt exposure with a 15 pt lay, with at a cost of 1.65 pts of possible profit. It is important to note that I am not locking in a guaranteed profit here, simply derisking the position. If Chelsea slip up and the title heads back to Old Trafford on Sunday, I will simply have a break-even position.
Anyway, moving on to this weekend. As you probably anticipated, I am not a very big fan of the last day of the season. 75% of the games are going to be a bit of a farce and as a result makes them impossible to bet on.
I am also avoiding all of the relegation battles. It just isn’t worth the effort to try and price in all the possible intangibles. Historical data becomes a lot less valuable in such situations.
However, I am going to place three small wagers, all of which come with a health warning. And I won’t be giving you 400 words of analysis to back up my selections, because… there isn’t any.
I am going with the gut and very little else this week.
My first selection is for a much improved Brighton side to beat Yeovil down at the Withdean. The seagulls have a diabolical home record, however I think they will chalk up a rare victory on Saturday at what looks an overpriced 5/6.
Gus Poyet’s men are a sneaky one to watch for next season. I think they will end up in the playoff mix in what will be a weakened division. Whilst we are on that subject of League 1, do we think they are going to be taking bets on how many points Southampton are going to win League 1 by next season?!
My final two selections of the domestic season are sneaky little 1/2 pt punts. I think Bolton, also much improved after a mid season change of direction, could be the Premier League’s surprise package in 2010 – 2011, and I think they can finish on a high by beating Birmingham on Sunday at what seems an big 5/4. Given that Birmingham have only won two of their last ten games I think this is a good price, particularly when you consider that those two victories were against Burnley and Portsmouth.
The Blues deserve a lot of credit for their solid performances all campaign and probably deserve the off season break more than anyone else. Let’s hope mentally they are already on holiday.
My final selection of the year involves the same side I backed with my first selection way back in August (Man City to win away at Ewood Park), however this time I will be opposing City rather than supporting.
10/11 for a demoralized and demotivated team, which have seen their season implode in the last 3 weeks, away from home is not too appealing to me.
I think there is a chance that West Ham will play with a freedom they have not enjoyed for most of the season and I think they will be good for at least 1 goal. As a result, I am going to lay Man City on Betfair at 1.93.
All of these selections are as much for fun as profitablity, however I don’t think any of them are poor or hopeful selections. All in all, they are probably break even selections, however for one last week I am going to enjoy myself a little.
If anyone has anything more enticing they would like me to consider, please do fire away.
HOTW: 15pt lay of Chelsea to win the league @ 1.11
BOTW: 1pt on Brighton to beat Yeovil @ 1.83
0.5 pt on Bolton to beat Birmingham @ 2.25
0.5pt lay of Man City @ West Ham @ 1.93