Matthew Upson 1/4 to make the squad this morning with Coral’s…

Not to say I told you so, but… I told you so.

Back later with the details…

6pts on the LA Dodgers to win the NL West @ 2/1

To follow up on yesterday’s money spinner, I thought I would give you the rest of Fabio Capello’s World Cup squad.

For those that don’t want to spoil the surprise “look away now” as they like to say on the pre MOTD news.

In fact, no need.  I am a kind generous soul and I have hidden it from you.

Phew. Read More→

What did I tell you?  I promised to find you some value and I told you it would likely be somewhere a little less obvious that the win markets.

One particular bookmaker, who shall remain nameless, has some prices up in the “To make England’s World Cup squad” market, which are out of kilter with both the other bookmakers and my view of the current England setup.

Pretty sure you will be able to find it easily enough with the help of a popular odds comparison site…

Anyway, moving on.  Matthew Upson is going to the World Cup.  Fact.  And here is why.

The logic

Capello is going to take four centre backs, in addition to Jamie Carragher who will provide cover at the position whilst also providing cover for (or even displacing) team mate Glen Johnson at right back.

Four into five clearly doesn’t go, so one of John Terry, Rio Ferdinand, Matt Upson, Ledley King and Michael Dawson is going to miss out.

Although in previous years it may have appeared so, the former Fleet Street rags do not pick the England team.  Therefore, although Tottenham are very much “in vogue” with the media and the British public, I have 100% faith in Fabio Capello and his team to make the right decisions when choosing the 23 players which will fly out to South Africa later this month.

Rio and Terry are, aptly, “no brainers”, so we won’t waste time considering their respective cases.

Ledley King will be on the plane, Capello has already said as much.  Not because he is “the greatest centre back in the universe” as the media would lead us to believe, but because he is experienced (King actually featured from England as far back as Euro 2004), has proven himself to be a strong and reliable defender who makes very few blunders and is flexible, offering another alternative for the defensive midfield position, particularly given Gareth Barry’s injury.

It is important here to notice the risk associated with taking untried and untested defenders is much greater than it is with a comparable attacking player.  A nervous or overmatched left winger is likely to go missing in games and fail to offer much as an attacking force.

Having a nervous or overmatched centre back at this level is likely to result in a catastrophe.

It should also be noted that Upson is England’s only left footed centre back, another feather in his cap. His presence increases the overall balance of the squad, provides a third option for an emergency left back whilst also offering the flexibility for Capello to resort to a 3-5-2 formation mid game in desperate times.

This flexibility is the key in selecting “squad players” for an international tournament and it is important to recognize that this is exactly what we considering here.

If they both remain injury free, Ferdinand and Terry are certainties to start at the heart of England’s defence against the USA.

What Capello is looking for in his reserve centre backs is someone to come in and “do a job” for him in the event that one of his first choice pairing is injured or suspended at any point.

It is too late for “experimenting” in the upcoming friendlies.  This is time for business, to gel the team together and to gain some confidence.  When Rio’s balky back starts playing up with 20 minutes to go in the World Cup semi final, you don’t want to be throwing on an uncapped or inexperienced centre half in to deal with Lionel Messi and Carlos Tevez.

Such rash decision making would likely end in disaster.  And Don Fabio is one of the best coaches in the history of the game.  Unlike the UK media, he knows all this.  And he won’t be doing anything rash with his defensive selections.

The evidence

Although this may come as a bit of a surprise, Matthew Upson has started 9 on England’s 17 games since they opened up their qualifying campaign in Andorra back in September 2008.  In addition to those starts, he has made 2 further sub appearances and was an unused substitute a further 3 times.

In total he was included on the teamsheet submitted by Fabio Capello 14 times.  That is the exact same number of times as a certain Mr John Terry.  And double the number of times Rio Ferdinand has featured (7) during the same period.

For the record, Michael Dawson, has yet to feature for England despite having played almost 150 top flight games for Tottenham over the last 6 years.

Conclusion

The chances of Upson going from England’s clear 3rd choice centre back, who has started 7 of our last 11 games, to not even making the squad due to the presence of an unretired 32 year-old Carragher, and a talented but untried Michael Dawson are slim to non.

Dawson will be the player to miss out if all five players come through the friendly games unscathed and barring personal injury, Matthew Upson will definitely be on the plane.

So I suggest we bite their hand off at 11/10, and teach them a lesson for not paying attention to these markets which the bookies throw out as a form of “cheap advertising”. The cost of advertising in this particular space just got a little bit more expensive.

For those that aren’t 100% convinced, former England and Arsenal centre back, Martin Keown, seems to agree with me to.  Not sure how happy I am about that, but somewhat reassuring all the same.

Least is isn’t Lee Dixon.  Or, god forbid, Tony Adams or Nigel Winterburn.

BOTW: 9pts on Matthew Upson to make the final England World Cup squad @ 11/10