Let’s back some losersBy
How did George Bush’s now infamous phrase go again? “You can fool me once…”
It didn’t come out quite as they had planned in rehearsals, but I guess we all got the gist George.
Well this is clearly a maxim wasted on the guys down at Boylesports, as they are fooling themselves for the second year running on one of their MLB season specials.
Just as they did in 2009, they have set the over/under threshold for the most “losingest” pitcher in baseball to be +/- 16.5 losses. (You’ll get used to the Americanisms after a while, I promise.)
The rest of the market have set their over/under threshold at +/- 17.5 losses. And for good reason.
For once, I am not going to bang on about this for ages. I will just let the cold hard facts do the talking for me. Here are the historic statistics for the number of 17 game losers in MLB in recent years.
|Year||17 game losers|
This bet would have come in every single year since 1995. That’s right, 15 years on the bounce.
That isn’t a very good return for Mr Bookmaker on what is supposed to result in a coin flip into which they can ram a 7% margin on pricing.
Now at +/- 17.5 losses you would have had yourself a coin flip. Oops.
Mr Bet365 et al, have yourselves a biscuit. Mr Boyle, I think you should go and sit on the naughty step for a while and have a good think about what you have done.
I would stress that, despite the above, I am not quoting this bet as a “certainty”.
The game of baseball has changed in recent years and teams are using more starting pitchers than ever before. The simple economics of the game have meant that teams are less prepared to rock out the same over the hill veteran to get knocked around every fifth day than they once were.
That said, I think it is safe to say that this bet stands a much better chance of coming in than the 60% Boylesports are currently forecasting.
I have to confess that my decision to post these bets at a timely point just before the start of the season has cost BOTW a little bit of value. I got on this one personally when the market opened back in February at the higher opening price of 20/23. At this price it was an absolute steal.
But even at 4/6 it is a very solid selection.
BOTW: 7pts on a pitcher to have +16.5 losses in MLB 2010 @ 4/6