Although this weekend’s cheeky punt was unsuccessful, I am content that my radar isn’t too far off.

As I predicted would be the case, two of the three selections were successful, but Charlton’s failure to see off a dire Gillingham side means that the bookies came out on top again this week.  My views on such things are pretty similar to big Charlie De Gaulle’s views on battles and wars.

I am going over old ground a little here, but I feel it is an important for those with less betting experience to keep this point at the forefront of their mind.

Although this week’s pick was a loser, it doesn’t mean it was a bad selection.  I regularly have conversations with friends and readers who really struggle to move away from the “winning bets are good bets, and losing bets are bad bets” mindset.

Such a mindset cannot only be very expensive in the long term; it can be very limiting in your attempts to improve as a sports gambler.  It is vital that you keep a price-focused approach when looking at possible selections.

I would ask you to consider, when the Charlton result rolled in eerily late  on Soccer Saturday, was your thought process something along the lines of “Another loser for BOTW damn it.  I am going to stop listening to that idiot!”?

Whether or not that would be sound advice from you alter ego is one thing, but I would hope you would come to that conclusion because, having fully considered all three of my selections, you had determined that the three teams would all manage to win their respective fixture less than 25% of the time.

A selection such as this only has to come in 9 times a season to be profitable.  And to expect such selections to be successful more than 15 times a season would be short sighted and, to be honest, greedy.

Over a 38 week season, 12 such winners would generate a 35% return – (((4.3-1)*12-26)/38) for the benefit of the maths geeks.  That would be more than acceptable in my eyes.

As SAF was celebrating what has been a rare victory over his most bitter rivals (read that as you wish as to the beholder of bitterness!), I was very happy when I considered my selections at their respective prices this weekend.  This weekend was not a winning weekend, but I am satisfied that the treble was coming in more than the once a month required to make it a +EV selection.

It is not that I feel I need to be justifying my selections whilst the full season’s profits remain significant, but I felt this was an appropriate time to check in and ensure everyone has their gambling heads screwed on the right way around.

It is very easy to let a run such as that encountered over the last six weeks to affect your thought process and influence your decisions.

And the only thing more dangerous than that is getting in between a loose ball, Ryan Shawcross and Wes Brown.