Archive for March, 2010
An unusual one here for BOTW, but I thought I would use this post to warm everyone up before I start on the baseball later this week!
I have put some spondoolies on Roger Federer to win the French Open this year at the 5/2 currently available.
I feel that this price is too high for a man who has made 18 of the last 19 Grand Slam finals, including the last 4 at Roland Garros.
Federer’s “struggles” on clay are grossly overstated by the media. Since winning his first major at Wimbledon in 2003, he is 32-5 (87%) at the French. That is not the record of a man whose backhand cannot handle the surface! Read More→
Although this weekend’s cheeky punt was unsuccessful, I am content that my radar isn’t too far off.
As I predicted would be the case, two of the three selections were successful, but Charlton’s failure to see off a dire Gillingham side means that the bookies came out on top again this week. My views on such things are pretty similar to big Charlie De Gaulle’s views on battles and wars.
I am going over old ground a little here, but I feel it is an important for those with less betting experience to keep this point at the forefront of their mind.
Although this week’s pick was a loser, it doesn’t mean it was a bad selection. I regularly have conversations with friends and readers who really struggle to move away from the “winning bets are good bets, and losing bets are bad bets” mindset.
Such a mindset cannot only be very expensive in the long term; it can be very limiting in your attempts to improve as a sports gambler. It is vital that you keep a price-focused approach when looking at possible selections.
I would ask you to consider, when the Charlton result rolled in eerily late on Soccer Saturday, was your thought process something along the lines of “Another loser for BOTW damn it. I am going to stop listening to that idiot!”?
Whether or not that would be sound advice from you alter ego is one thing, but I would hope you would come to that conclusion because, having fully considered all three of my selections, you had determined that the three teams would all manage to win their respective fixture less than 25% of the time.
A selection such as this only has to come in 9 times a season to be profitable. And to expect such selections to be successful more than 15 times a season would be short sighted and, to be honest, greedy.
Over a 38 week season, 12 such winners would generate a 35% return – (((4.3-1)*12-26)/38) for the benefit of the maths geeks. That would be more than acceptable in my eyes.
As SAF was celebrating what has been a rare victory over his most bitter rivals (read that as you wish as to the beholder of bitterness!), I was very happy when I considered my selections at their respective prices this weekend. This weekend was not a winning weekend, but I am satisfied that the treble was coming in more than the once a month required to make it a +EV selection.
It is not that I feel I need to be justifying my selections whilst the full season’s profits remain significant, but I felt this was an appropriate time to check in and ensure everyone has their gambling heads screwed on the right way around.
It is very easy to let a run such as that encountered over the last six weeks to affect your thought process and influence your decisions.
And the only thing more dangerous than that is getting in between a loose ball, Ryan Shawcross and Wes Brown.
Absolutely nothing I can muster from today’s coupon worthy of a large investment I am afraid.
Hope everyone isn’t licking too many wounds from the mug’s game that is the nags this week. Not my cup of tea. Thinking about it that may be worth a rant at some point soon…
To avoid a complete void of a weekend I am going to put a fun little treble on, but comes with a lage health warning.
I think Charlton’s demise in recent weeks is being overstated by the 8/13 available at home to a dire Gillingham side and I think offering 8/11 on Man United at home to anyone other than Chelsea is aggressive and smacks of “well it was 4-1 to Liverpool last year” thinking infiltrating the mind.
I am going to throw in the heart attack inducing Baggies to beat inconsistent Preston at the Hawthorns as well for a nice little treble at what looks a slightly fat 10/3.
No doubt two of the three will come in such is the nature of trying to layer selections like this, however on a weekend where so little appeals I often like to do these for a bit of fun that shouldn’t be too far either side of break even in the long term.
BOTW: 1pt on West Brom, Man United and Charlton @ 10/3
After the relative success of the weekend, I am folowing up quickly with another double form the BSN games tomorrow night.
Northwich are well undervalued at 1/2 at home to struggling Vauxhall Motor’s tomorrow. This is a typical lower league game that looks closer than it is. The Ellesmere Port side would be well adrift at the bottom of the league if it wasn’t for games played imbalance with their 5/12/17/-34 line. And Andy Preece’s men (remember him? Top 10 all time barnet if I recall correctly.), languishing in midtable at first glance, would be strong playoff contendors but for their 9 point handicap for the usual financial irregularities.
Which is more common in football these days? Adultery or insolvency? Gotta be a close call.
Anyway I digress. I would have this game at 1.4 so happy to get involved.
I am going to pair this up with a new team for BOTW, Stalybridge Celtic. The Celts are up against fierce rivals Hyde United tomorrow night, which although not something I can say I have witnessed first hand, is supposed to be second only to River v Boca.
It is a good job they built the M67 or we might just have ended up with a civil war by now.
Staylbridge are a strong outfit, and once the games even out I would expect them to be sitting in 3rd place rather than their current 8th spot. Hyde on the other hand are struggling mightly this season and have only won once on the road all term. Such a derby often neutralizes any such “home field advantage”, but I expect the Northsiders to come out of this one on top.
8/13 is a good price for such a GD disparity and this completes a nice double at 11/8.
BOTW: 3pts on a Northwich/Stalybridge double at 11/8
Firstly, I guess I should apologize for the relative radio silence the last fortnight. Both work and “real life” have been pretty busy and although I can always find the time to hunt around for some value, putting together the longer “rationale” posts does take some time.
Us Northerners don’t naturally produce coherent prose unfortunately, it takes a bit of thunking, so to speak.
The week started well with Notts County’s win over Chesterfield at a decent price. Regular readers will know I have banged on about NC a lot this season. I won’t keep repeating myself, I will simply say “I told you so” when they coast to automatic promotion. They may well even catch our old friends Rochdale before the season is out, despite the two points dropped tonight at Meadow Lane.
As is the way at current, I still couldn’t put together a “great” night with Swindon failing to bounce back against the Jekyll and Hyde bunch that are the MK Dons. I still believe opposing the Don’s on a regular basis is a +EV strategy but it has to be said it is not without risk, as they are very unpredictable bunch.
The weekend saw a return to “normality”, with a number of comfortable victories in which non of my selections even conceded a goal. Sadly the Pirates’ failure to see off a dogged Tranmere side kept total profits levels suppressed. Having read the match reports, it doesn’t sound like they deserved any more than the point they got, so fair play to Les Parry’s men for costing me money two weeks on the spin. So much for “you can fool me once” and all…
The overall profit of circa 3.5 point was a good win from 9 points wagered, but after a bad couple of weeks, the 10 point haul from the clean sweep would have been much appreciated.
It was particularly satisfyingto see a number of convincing lower league wins to offset some recent stumbles in this area. Those that check my blog more than once a day (if such a person exists?!) may have noticed the increased stake on the Fleetwood double on Saturday morning.
I have to admit to being human on this one and allowing the recent lower league problems to get in my head a touch. The 1.57 available was huge and I was initially far too conservative with this one. It was only after a third look at the game and the fact that the vast majority of the bookies had priced the game at 1.3 or 1.33 that really drilled this home.
I hope that February’s small blip is now behind us and I will soon push total profit levels back up the 10 points or so needed to be back at all time high’s.
Hopefully back later with a selection for the midweek coupon, and if time permits, some of my idle chat about a number of topics from Fergie’s invisible goal mouth shield, the demise of Italian football and a review of my current open positions. Which, for the record, seem to be deteriorating by the day!
Oh, and if you’re lucky I’ll no doubt throw in some ranting about pundits and commentator’s. Why break the habit of a lifetime after all?!