I am going back to basics a little bit this week as profits have stagnated over the last 2 weeks.  We have has a little bit of bad luck (aka variance) but I have to admit the main reason for the downturn has been a couple of poor selections.  Well maybe not poor selections, but more poor non-selections.

For two weekends running I have revisited my pre-weekend analysis and found myself asking “Why exactly did I decide not to back Team X at that price?”

C’est la vie.  Hindsight is always 20/20.

However, as a consequence I am more determined to chalk up a win this week than a team full of James Milner’s.

I have made 5 selections for the weekend which I believe all represent +EV gambles.  These have coincidently resulted in a nice spread of both low variance and good return selections.

I am also making a rare foray into the European leagues, which will be interesting.  But more on that later.

My first selection of the weekend is York City.  The Minstermen have had a little stumble of late, with only 1 win in their last 4 games.  However, they have a number of winnable fixtures coming up, so I expect them to be back on the heels of the leaders quite soon.  I expect them to comfortably see away Eastbourne (20th) today and could be looking at 9 points out of 9 after the subsequent games against Gray’s (23rd) and Forest Green (22nd) over the coming fortnight.

My second selection was a big of a no brainer to be honest.  Bradford have been priced up very poorly at 4/6 against league 2 whipping boys Darlington.  I won’t linger on the Quaker’s troubles as they are clear for all to see.

I believe Bradford are currently well undervalued by the bookies due to their poor record at Valley Parade this season, however as indicated by their fantastic 3-1 at Spotland during the week, they can be a match for anyone in the division on their day.  I expect to see them pick up another 3 points today.

My second selection is again looking to take advantage of some bouncebackability, with both West Brom (8/11) and Droylsden (3/4) looking to get their respective promotion/playoff campaigns back on track after a tough few weeks.

My final selection is a rare European selection – Getafe to beat Real Zaragoza.  The lesser know boys from Madrid may not quite be Galactico’s, but their home form this season (7/2/2/+8) isn’t too far off what you would expect from the big boys.

The fixture list hasn’t been kind to Getafe this season, having already completed 6 of their 8 fixtures against the top 4, including all 4 away fixtures.  They have struggled a little in recent weeks, but I expect them to get back on track this weekend.

Zaragoza are terrible travelers (1/3/8/-21) and have lost by 2 or more goals in every single away game against the top half sides this season, including a couple of real spankings.

Oh and one final thing.  Apologies for the tardiness of this update… hangover from hell.

BOTW: 3pts on York (2/5) & Bradford (4/6)

2pts on Droylsden (3/4) & West Brom (8/11)

1.5pts on Getate to beat Zaragoza (10/11)