“All 3 combinations involving JEdward won’t result in deadlock, as the judges (and the show) would lose all credibility if they saved them.” BOTW Flawed Logic

Well, well, well. At around 2045 on Sunday night, I was preparing to brag about a virtual clean sweep of a weekend resulting in a 10pt profit.

As the X Factor results were announced I was not the least bit concerned that my value punt on who was announced safe didn’t come in. It was always an outside bet, but was simply too good value at 11/4 based on my assumptions about who was likely safe from elimination this week.

Hands up those who had money on Lucie Jones being evicted. Thought not.

As John & Edward were announced in the bottom two, I high-fived my resident betting partner in crime (my poor girlfriend no less) and crowed how Simon Cowell was “a genius” for pretending to have warmed to John & Edward, so that the public gave up the pantomime voting and as a result he managed to get rid of them.

How wrong could I be?! His decision, which was clearly aimed at saving them whatever he tries to fob the public off with, has made the whole competition a bit of a farce for me.

It raises the question, what do the judges actually do?! They are clearly not there for their technical insight or humour, as their sterile, predictable comments following each act could be scripted by a dim 10 year old child. No value added there then.

So if the public vote will decide who is in the bottom two and then also decide who goes we May as well just let Dermot read out the results and have 55 minutes of Cheryl Cole dancing. Better deal all around.

Trying to claim that this reality TV bile is a legitimate competition going forward is not going to wash with many people.

One of those being my (former) X Factor addict of a girlfriend, who still has that John “It’s not fair mummy, it’s just not fair” Terry looks plastered all over her Chevy Chase.

Just when it looks like you will never lose another bet, something like this comes along to bring you back to reality.

On a brighter note, I got away with one in my negative assessment of the strength of Man Utd’s resolve. My boys put in twice the performance I anticipated.

I absolutely nailed the Aston Villa bet which I was very pleased with. The manor of the victory was more satisfying than the cash. I feel I maybe should have made this a 3pt stake, but c’est la vie.

3pts down for the weekend… that’s why it’s called gambling folks!

More bets up early for once in advance of this weekend.

Anyone that decided to back my tongue-in-cheek X Factor accumulator (see below) is onto a winner…

Just for the record, only 10 weeks early…

“The X Factor 2009 results

12th: Kandy Rain

11th: Rikki Loney

10th: Miss Frank

9th: Rachel Adedeji

8th: John and Edward Grimes

7th: Lloyd Daniels

6th: Lucie Jones

5th: Jamie Archer

4th Daniel Johnson

The Final: Olly Murs, Stacey Soloman & Joe McElderry.”

So far, a £10 initial stake would see you up to just over £1,050… Not bad at all if you had the guts!

Which obviously I didn’t as this was light hearted banter.

However, it is certainly time to end the run and cash out your £1,000 and head for the Bahama’s.

The Sun’s love in for John and Edward continues and I cannot see them going this week. They won’t win the competition, “I’m certain of that” as SAF would say, however it seems both the media and public are not bored of them yet.

Part of me is starting to think the media hype is an attempt to irritate Simon Cowell as their progress will ultimately be bad for the competition structure in the long term.

I think Lloyd is in big trouble this week, I don’t think he can play the sore throat card two weeks running and bar the gruesome twosome the standard is now too high for him to compete.

Unfortunately I think the bookies are well aware of this and I have decided to stay away from this market this week at the stingy 13/8 on offer on a Lloyd eviction.

However, I have found two other X Factor markets that I am very very keen on.

Boylesports are offering a typical 10/11 market on the possibility of deadlock, on the basis that it is a coin flip situation.

Well, personally I think this is stupidly priced. I think the chances of a 3rd deadlock in 5 weeks are considerably less than 50/50.

It isn’t good for the show and the judges and producers know it. Even excluding such conspiracy theories, there are very few possible bottom two pairings which would result in deadlock (this thing really is that predictable)

Joe, Olly, Stacey and Lucie are all safe from the bottom two for me.

That leaves us with John & Edward, Jamie, Danyl and Lloyd to make up the bottom two.

That leaves 6 possible pairings.

All 3 involving JEdward won’t result in deadlock as the judges (and the show) would lose all credibility if they saved them.

I believe any pairing involving Danyl will result in him being saved. He has only had one lifeline and most people get two out of the judges.

The most likely pairing for bottom two is expected to be Jamie versus Lloyd. This one does have a danger of being a deadlock. This would be determined by the votes of Dani and Louis. Dani will save Jamie, meaning Louis Walsh would have the deciding vote. Although Louis has been giving Jamie plenty of stick about not being a proper rocker I believe he would send Lloyd home.

And as a result I am going hard on this one.

I’m putting my main bet for the weekend on now, as I think this price will move in 10%+ as the game in question approaches. For once i’m not going to go into great detail as to why. I couldn’t bring myself to put that in writing.