Fresh of the back of a 5 point profit from backing Scottish whinger Rikki Loney to be the 2nd person evicted from The X Factor, I decided to open up a few more long term positions.

Apologies for not getting that one online but blogging at 7pm on a Saturday isn’t my idea of fun… plus, you can’t have them all!

The X Factor has previously been a profitable market for me. I got stuck into Alexandra Burke at the X Factor auditions (easy now…) in 2008, which resulted in a handsome profit.

I also narrowly missed out on an “Alexandra – Eoghan” forecast, when he came up just short behind the very likeable JLS.

I failed to take consolation from the announcement that Eoghan had actually won the public vote in 8 of the 12 live shows, with winner Alexandra only actually winning twice. If my memory serves me correctly, JLS and Diana Vickers shared the other two live vote summits.

Now, many of you are thinking, “I don’t like that second bet, Eoghan, although nice and troll like, to be frank, was a bit weak”.

Your right, he was. And probably still is, the poor lad who is now no doubt trying to return to school and normality and failing miserably without actually making enough cash to make it worthwhile…

Anyway. For all his deficiencies as a singer, Eoghan was a vote winning machine. And recognising this is the crux to making cash out of The X Factor.

Real talent, such as Leona and even Alexandra, can win The X Factor. Just. By the skin of their freshly whitened, glow in the dark, teeth.

For any old mortal to win such a competition, you really need “a vote”.

The housewife vote.
The teenage girl vote.
The gay vote.
The black vote.
The Essex vote.

No, that isn’t ageist/sexist/homophobic/racist/slagist. Stop writing your letters to Watchdog already. It’s a fact of life that different people are more likely to appeal to different demographics. And of those many hundreds of demographics, some are more likely to spend £3 a week sending multiple votes for their X Factor favourite.

So on to my first bet. Danyl Johnson is the current favourite to win the X Factor. But he shouldn’t be. He is probably the best singer. On a one off occasion he is probably the artist.

But this isn’t a singing competition. This is a POPULARITY contest.

And Danyl isn’t popular. You may like him. But “the people” don’t. There is just something about him that people aren’t connecting with and I can see why. People appreciate his singing talent, but most would rather see someone who is entertaining, fun and talented yet still down-to-earth and like the guy or girl next door.

That is why people like Stacey Soloman. She’s daft as a brush. And she’s a single mum from Dagenham. But she isn’t a complete drop out, and she doesn’t seem to have a bad bone in her body. She is as likable as it gets.

There are also pockets of support around for Joe (“cute”) and Jamie (“talented”).

John and Edward may well hang around for a few weeks yet on the back of some banterous public support but it won’t last. That game will get pretty dry after 6 weeks or so.

Unfortunately for them, Miss Frank, Lloyd, Lucie and Rachel are sitting ducks. Giving it a go, but no realistic chance of making the final, never mind winning.

And if you want any evidence to back up this useless tittle tattle, check out the below…

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/forums/showthread.php?t=1146202

The current wave of votes for John and Edward can be ignored.

Stacey is currently a strong favourite with masses, however I question her staying power. Can you see her as a recording artist, returning on next years show a la Alexandra or even worse being a Platinum selling artist in the States? I think not. Dagenham Stace’ has a very low ceiling.

Rounding out the money places currently are a surprisingly popular Jamie and Geordie Joe. Both are good singers. However I am not convinved that both might come unstuck in later rounds as “one/two trick ponies’. And that won’t cut it over a 12 week schedule.

Moving on….

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/forums/showthread.php?t=1147072

This is where the reading gets even more interesting. Look how “disliked” Danyl is. Although this marmite scenario won’t do him any harm in the early stages of the competition, he may find he comes up against some “Anyone but Danyl” voters backing other acts just to prevent him from winning which could be seriously damaging to his chances of winning the competition.

I wouldn’t back him in a two horse race against 4 of the other acts.

You will also see that Essex boy Olly Murs is the “least-least liked” person in the competion, whilst still being a respectable 5th in the sensible voting poll.

And this is where my (hard earned, and incredbly smart) money is going.

I think Olly is a dead cert to be in the last 5 of the competition and has the potential to improve into a real contender. Either way, I will have laid off my exposure by then for a risk free position.

You know it makes sense. My girlfriend even tells me “He’s got The X Factor!”. Having checked the rules, I think that gives him a pretty good shout…

And for the skeptics out there, I am pretty sure that Simon Cowell will do all he can to ensure a marketable “recording artist” wins the competition. And I can’t see many of the other current favourites that fit that bill, particularly Stacey and Jamie.

So after all that, the conclusion is I am going in hard…

BOTW : 4pts Lay Danyl to win The X Factor @ 4/1 (resulting in an exposure of 16pts)

9pts Back Olly to win The X Factor @ 8/1 (with the aim of laying off risk later)
Just for the record, only 10 weeks early…

The X Factor 2009 results

12th: Kandy Rain
11th: Rikki Loney
10th: Miss Frank
9th: Rachel Adedeji
8th: John and Edward Grimes
7th: Lloyd Daniels
6th: Lucie Jones
5th: Jamie Archer
4th Daniel Johnson

The Final: Olly Murs, Stacey Soloman & Joe McElderry.

You didn’t think I was going to spoil it ALL for you did you?! I’m not that mean!

The prices are starting to stretch out, and to be honest some of their performances haven’t been as bad as they appeared.

They have had some pretty tough fixtures and have likely faced 4 of the top 7 in the league (Arsenal, City, Villa, Everton).

Heck, you could even claim Fulham as a viable 8th placed team too.

Losing 1 – 0 to City is no crime, and I watched their performance at the Emirates and they did a much better job there than most this year.

Also working in our favour is Wolves’ relatively good start to the season. They should be pretty relaxed going into this, and that is not a good thing.

So, although a “possible” rather than a “probable”, I am going to have a little tinkle today at the genrally best priced 5/2.

Good luck.

BOTW: 2pt on Pompey to beat Wolves @ 5/2