Football value has been hard to find recently…
By
Blez
Morning all.
In a rare turn up for the books I am going to place a few bets on the football today. Normally that would have been said with more than a hint of sarcasm, however in recent weeks I have been finding it harder and harder to find good value bets with low variance.
Well today I have a couple that I am prepared to put a bit of cash on.
In fact there are great options all over the Premiership coupon. Some of the leagues strongest home teams face weak opposition on home turf (Stoke v Wolves, Burnley v Hull) and at first glance represent great value at 18/19 best price at the time of writing.
However, after much deliberating I am going to stay away from a large punt on either of those.
Stoke really have been on fire in recent weeks. Do not be concerned by the very wise Carling Cup surrender in mid week. Tony Pulis knows what he is trying to do this season, and battling it out against the big 4 reserves for the Carling Cup it isn’t.
We should all however be disappointed that we didn’t see that coming and take the price that was available on a Portsmouth win midweek. They are playing for their lives every game and were always going to use the game as a rare “pressure free” environment to go out and play.
However, my reasoning for staying away from this bet is the surprising resilience of Mick McCarthy’s Wolves. They have scored in four of their five away games so far this season, and although inconsistent (a 5-2 thrashing by the new Samba Boys up at Sunderland and a 3-1 defeat at Blackburn) have appeared defensively more robust than I expected.
Combining this, I am staying away due to this possibility of this game finishing 1-1.
In the Burnley v Hull game I have decided to stay away from the dreaded “known-unknown”.
Word on the street is that Phil Brown will be following his ex-Chairman Phil Duffen down the job centre on Monday if things don’t start to improve for the Tigers at Turf Moor.
Owen Coyle’s men have been playing some great stuff at home in recent weeks, however I am wary of a big reaction from the Hull players and as a result have again shied away from a large wager.
I also feel that West Ham are due a few results. This is the same team that finished in the top half last season, and a quick look at one of my favourite metrics, total goal difference, clearly shows that their play does not reflect their lowly position.
I hope Gianfranco Zola is given plenty of time by his board, as a couple of a good results and a win in their game in hand should see them return to a mid-table position. They won’t match the heights of 9th place again, but I fully expect them to end up in 12th-14th by season end.
I was very tempted by the 16/5 best available on a West Ham victory, however the dull accountant in me has opted for the double chance (West Ham & the draw) at 11/13.
For my larger wager of the day I am again putting some faith in the ever improving Portsmouth down at Fratton Park. A good winner for me earlier this season away at Wolves, I think that they are overpriced at 7/5 to see off an inconsistent Wigan today.
This season Portsmouth are a prime example of why I don’t like betting on minor European football leagues based purely on basic league table/form analysis like so many punters around the world do every week.
On paper Portsmouth are dire. Wigan recently beat Chelsea comfortably.
However, in true shoddy football pundit speak, “football is not played on paper”.
I have seen a number of Portsmouth’s performances this season and they honestly aren’t that bad.
They have been competitive in almost every game, losing four games 1 – 0. And there is absoutely no shame in their heavier defeats away from home to both Arsenal and Villa.
The deciding factor for me was their 4 – 0 bashing of the Stoke reserves mid week. Although I said this had no impact on Stoke going forward, I cannot say the same for Paul Hart’s men. I think that win will have done them the world of good. The magnitude of the victory will really gie them a boost, as there problem all season has been hitting the back of the net.
I expect them to run out comfortable winners today. The boy Dindane may even score a goal you know. One day it is gonna happen!
Good luck kids… I shall be back later with yet more news on the money factory that is The X Factor.
Morning all.
In a rare turn up for the books I am going to place a few bets on the football today. Normally that would have been said with more than a hint of sarcasm, however in recent weeks I have been finding it harder and harder to find good value bets with low variance.
Well today I have a couple that I am prepared to put a bit of cash on.
In fact there are great options all over the Premiership coupon. Some of the leagues strongest home teams face weak opposition on home turf (Stoke v Wolves, Burnley v Hull) and at first glance represent great value at 18/19 best price at the time of writing.
However, after much deliberating I am going to stay away from a large punt on either of those.
Stoke really have been on fire in recent weeks. Do not be concerned by the very wise Carling Cup surrender in mid week. Tony Pulis knows what he is trying to do this season, and battling it out against the big 4 reserves for the Carling Cup it isn’t.
We should all however be disappointed that we didn’t see that coming and take the price that was available on a Portsmouth win midweek. They are playing for their lives every game and were always going to use the game as a rare “pressure free” environment to go out and play.
However, my reasoning for staying away from this bet is the surprising resilience of Mick McCarthy’s Wolves. They have scored in four of their five away games so far this season, and although inconsistent (a 5-2 thrashing by the new Samba Boys up at Sunderland and a 3-1 defeat at Blackburn) have appeared defensively more robust than I expected.
Combining this, I am staying away due to this possibility of this game finishing 1-1.
In the Burnley v Hull game I have decided to stay away from the dreaded “known-unknown”.
Word on the street is that Phil Brown will be following his ex-Chairman Phil Duffen down the job centre on Monday if things don’t start to improve for the Tigers at Turf Moor.
Owen Coyle’s men have been playing some great stuff at home in recent weeks, however I am wary of a big reaction from the Hull players and as a result have again shied away from a large wager.
I also feel that West Ham are due a few results. This is the same team that finished in the top half last season, and a quick look at one of my favourite metrics, total goal difference, clearly shows that their play does not reflect their lowly position.
I hope Gianfranco Zola is given plenty of time by his board, as a couple of a good results and a win in their game in hand should see them return to a mid-table position. They won’t match the heights of 9th place again, but I fully expect them to end up in 12th-14th by season end.
I was very tempted by the 16/5 best available on a West Ham victory, however the dull accountant in me has opted for the double chance (West Ham & the draw) at 11/13.
For my larger wager of the day I am again putting some faith in the ever improving Portsmouth down at Fratton Park. A good winner for me earlier this season away at Wolves, I think that they are overpriced at 7/5 to see off an inconsistent Wigan today.
This season Portsmouth are a prime example of why I don’t like betting on minor European football leagues based purely on basic league table/form analysis like so many punters around the world do every week.
On paper Portsmouth are dire. Wigan recently beat Chelsea comfortably.
However, in true shoddy football pundit speak, “football is not played on paper”.
I have seen a number of Portsmouth’s performances this season and they honestly aren’t that bad.
They have been competitive in almost every game, losing four games 1 – 0. And there is absoutely no shame in their heavier defeats away from home to both Arsenal and Villa.
The deciding factor for me was their 4 – 0 bashing of the Stoke reserves mid week. Although I said this had no impact on Stoke going forward, I cannot say the same for Paul Hart’s men. I think that win will have done them the world of good. The magnitude of the victory will really gie them a boost, as there problem all season has been hitting the back of the net.
I expect them to run out comfortable winners today. The boy Dindane may even score a goal you know. One day it is gonna happen!
Good luck kids… I shall be back later with yet more news on the money factory that is The X Factor.
BOTW: 2pts on Portsmouth to beat Wigan @ 7/5
1.5pts on West Ham not to lose at Sunderland @ 11/13
0.5pts on a Stoke, Burnley double @ 14/5
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