Archive for October, 2009
Lloyd can’t handle rock week…
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Lloyd Daniels tonight for me. He isn’t going to be able to handle rock week. It will be much more rock weak from little Lloyd.
Taking the 7/2 still around as I don’t think they are saving him against anyone apart from J&E.
Only 1pt though as I am not too keen on this one.
BOTW: 1pt Lloyd Daniels to be the 4th person eliminated from The X Factor @ 7/2
Football value has been hard to find recently…
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Morning all.
In a rare turn up for the books I am going to place a few bets on the football today. Normally that would have been said with more than a hint of sarcasm, however in recent weeks I have been finding it harder and harder to find good value bets with low variance.
Well today I have a couple that I am prepared to put a bit of cash on.
In fact there are great options all over the Premiership coupon. Some of the leagues strongest home teams face weak opposition on home turf (Stoke v Wolves, Burnley v Hull) and at first glance represent great value at 18/19 best price at the time of writing.
However, after much deliberating I am going to stay away from a large punt on either of those.
Stoke really have been on fire in recent weeks. Do not be concerned by the very wise Carling Cup surrender in mid week. Tony Pulis knows what he is trying to do this season, and battling it out against the big 4 reserves for the Carling Cup it isn’t.
We should all however be disappointed that we didn’t see that coming and take the price that was available on a Portsmouth win midweek. They are playing for their lives every game and were always going to use the game as a rare “pressure free” environment to go out and play.
However, my reasoning for staying away from this bet is the surprising resilience of Mick McCarthy’s Wolves. They have scored in four of their five away games so far this season, and although inconsistent (a 5-2 thrashing by the new Samba Boys up at Sunderland and a 3-1 defeat at Blackburn) have appeared defensively more robust than I expected.
Combining this, I am staying away due to this possibility of this game finishing 1-1.
In the Burnley v Hull game I have decided to stay away from the dreaded “known-unknown”.
Word on the street is that Phil Brown will be following his ex-Chairman Phil Duffen down the job centre on Monday if things don’t start to improve for the Tigers at Turf Moor.
Owen Coyle’s men have been playing some great stuff at home in recent weeks, however I am wary of a big reaction from the Hull players and as a result have again shied away from a large wager.
I also feel that West Ham are due a few results. This is the same team that finished in the top half last season, and a quick look at one of my favourite metrics, total goal difference, clearly shows that their play does not reflect their lowly position.
I hope Gianfranco Zola is given plenty of time by his board, as a couple of a good results and a win in their game in hand should see them return to a mid-table position. They won’t match the heights of 9th place again, but I fully expect them to end up in 12th-14th by season end.
I was very tempted by the 16/5 best available on a West Ham victory, however the dull accountant in me has opted for the double chance (West Ham & the draw) at 11/13.
For my larger wager of the day I am again putting some faith in the ever improving Portsmouth down at Fratton Park. A good winner for me earlier this season away at Wolves, I think that they are overpriced at 7/5 to see off an inconsistent Wigan today.
This season Portsmouth are a prime example of why I don’t like betting on minor European football leagues based purely on basic league table/form analysis like so many punters around the world do every week.
On paper Portsmouth are dire. Wigan recently beat Chelsea comfortably.
However, in true shoddy football pundit speak, “football is not played on paper”.
I have seen a number of Portsmouth’s performances this season and they honestly aren’t that bad.
They have been competitive in almost every game, losing four games 1 – 0. And there is absoutely no shame in their heavier defeats away from home to both Arsenal and Villa.
The deciding factor for me was their 4 – 0 bashing of the Stoke reserves mid week. Although I said this had no impact on Stoke going forward, I cannot say the same for Paul Hart’s men. I think that win will have done them the world of good. The magnitude of the victory will really gie them a boost, as there problem all season has been hitting the back of the net.
I expect them to run out comfortable winners today. The boy Dindane may even score a goal you know. One day it is gonna happen!
Good luck kids… I shall be back later with yet more news on the money factory that is The X Factor.
I hate backing multiple markets… it always ends in tears!
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Having just watched J&E bring out the goods again I am having a 2nd little gamble on this weeks X Factor elimination…
RANT ALERT: Alan Green is an obnoxious buffoon!
Posted by: | CommentsI’m not going to beat about the bush. I think the infamous 5Live commentator encapsulates everything that is wrong with football broadcasting in the UK.
Listening to football on the radio is a bit old hat these days. However, those who grew up without the luxury of Sky Sports (queue the violins…), I assume will be more than familiar with Alan’s “work”.
Alan Green is a Liverpool fan. And he hates Man United with a passion. But that is not why I dislike him.
In contrast, Alan Hansen is by far my favourite football pundit. He is to football punditry what Alan Shearer was to football. Ruthless but fair. He even has the “you can’t win anything with kids” clanger as his “Neil Lennon” moment.
Sadly the reverse cannot be said for Mr Shearer’s observational chit chat. He is far from solid and dependable, and is prone to making gaffs on a weekly basis!
Anyway, back to Alan Green.
I don’t like Alan Green because he is one of the most negative, self important idiots I have ever had to listen to. The sort of person that stands at the bar in his local pub ranting at randoms that “Manager X knows less about football than my mother” and “Player Y is rubbish, he wouldn’t get in a pub team”.
Everyone knows someone with completely unfounded, uninformed clueless football opinions like this. The problem is it is highly unlikely they are allowed to broadcast their musings to the entire country on a weekly basis. And they certainly wouldn’t be paid a healthy sum to do so!
He would not be allowed to keep such a high profile position anywhere else other than the BBC.
I had to endure 10 minutes of AG’s high pitches dross on Wednesday night as I drove to the gym. I never thought the day would come where I would be as ecstatic to here Jim Beglin’s voice as I was when I plonked myself on that exercise bike that night. Truly, raging boner ecstatic.
For those that are unaware of quite how bad AG is, you now probably have some perspective.
No doubt you are all wondering what this has to do with betting. Well it is a tenuous link at best I am afraid. So if you were here looking for something to bet on, tough titties.
Well during our brief 10 minute rendezvous, good old “Greeny” told me absolutely nothing about the game in hand, which unlike him I was not fortunate enough to be able to see, but repeatedly banged on about how “awful” Salomon Kalou is.
Apparently Kalou was guilty of missing a Ronnie Ronsentalesque sitter a few minutes earlier. But I wouldn’t know as the commentators are far to important to tell you what has been going on. They have people to educate you know.
Anybody new to the game would have thought Kalou was a overweight Sunday league centre half lumbering around up front at Stamford Bridge the way he was going on.
He informed me that Jose Mourinho seemed to rate him.
He informed me that Avram Grant seemed to rate him.
He informed me that Guus Hiddink seemed to rate him.
He informed me that Carlo Ancelotti seems to rate him.
I am aware Arsene Wenger has made multiple attempts to tempt Kalou away from Stamford Bridge with the lure of regular first team football.
But all of this is clearly irrelevant nonsense. All that matters is that Alan Green, football guru, and one of the greatest football mangers of his generation apparently, thinks he is crap.
The opinions of four of the most successful managers to have graced the Premier League are, undoubtedly, worthless.
Not only is this man a rude, racist (see link below) imbecile, but he also manges to combine an amazing level of arrogance and down right stupidity.
Those that saw the game will know that Kalou went on to score the opening two goals in Chelsea’s 4 – 0 victory. I didn’t get the pleasure of listening to Alan’s verdict on these developments, but then again having listened to him for 15 years, I didn’t need too.
A ropey finish for the first goal, in fact if it hadn’t been for some swirling winds, Kalou would have almost certainly put the ball over the bar. To be honest I am not even really sure why they gave him the goal.
And, the second goal. Well that was diabolical marking. The Madrid full back is a disgrace to the modern game. His a lack of effort is symbolic of the modern game. The Champions League is no doubt only terrorized by such amateurs due to the fact that “non champions” are farcically allowed to play in it.
Wasn’t like that in Alan’s day you know? Champions only. 16 teams. Real football.
Get over it Alan. It’s a good job it isn’t like that these days isn’t it?! Or your beloved Liverpool would still be awaiting their Champions League baptism.
Just to prove I am not just a bitter and twisted Man United, here are a few more members of the Alan Green fan club…
Click here
Back to that tenuous link.
Some of the only people in the world with more stupid footballing opinions than Alan Green are Newspaper “tipsters”. Particularly the free London paper tipsters those of us marooned in the capital have to put up with.
The worst, Steve Mullen of The London Paper, was thankfully put out of his misery this month when the paper went bust. I’m not bloody surprised if any of the big wigs there were following Steve’s picks.
This so called betting experts favourite party trick was quoting accumulator victories of dependent events.
“If you had gone with my predictions this weekend of Rooney to score first, Man United to win 3 – 0 and Man United to win both halves against Bournemouth, £10 on the treble would have seen you win a handsome £2,115!”
You can’t do that you wally. That is a schoolboy error.
So now Londoners are left with the London Lites resident tipster to set us on our way to the promised land of riches.
Their tip for the Chelsea v Athletico Madrid game? A half fit Michael Ballack to score anytime at 2/1.
An unusual choice, I thought to myself, in between whiffs of some (other) sweaty accountant’s armpit on my way home. Do these guys research their choices? Or even put any thought into these things?
I decided to have a look at Zi Keiser’s Champions League goal scoring record for Chelsea. Prior to Wednesday night, 25 games… 17 goals. What a great bet! Only joking. 25 games, 4 goals. Including one Fat Frank-less penalty.
So for the purposes of Wednesday nights game, 25/3. A goal every 8.33 games.
Not ideal for a 2/1 punt is it?!
Fair enough Athletico Madrid are not Real Madrid, well this week I should say Barcelona… oh hang on a minute I mean they are not Rubin Kazan!
But they aren’t exactly one of Europe’s minnows and perennial whipping boys are they?! The 4-0 scoreline was probably as far as even the most optimist Chelsea fan was stretching.
The moral of this War and Peace length diatribe?!
Don’t listen to the newspaper tipsters. Unless four of them gang up on you and threaten to make you listen to Alan Green on 5live if you don’t.
I’m not going to beat about the bush. I think the infamous 5Live commentator encapsulates everything that is wrong with football broadcasting in the UK.
Listening to football on the radio is a bit old hat these days. However, those who grew up without the luxury of Sky Sports (queue the violins…), I assume will be more than familiar with Alan’s “work”.
Alan Green is a Liverpool fan. And he hates Man United with a passion. But that is not why I dislike him.
In contrast, Alan Hansen is by far my favourite football pundit. He is to football punditry what Alan Shearer was to football. Ruthless but fair. He even has the “you can’t win anything with kids” clanger as his “Neil Lennon” moment.
Sadly the reverse cannot be said for Mr Shearer’s observational chit chat. He is far from solid and dependable, and is prone to making gaffs on a weekly basis!
Anyway, back to Alan Green.
I don’t like Alan Green because he is one of the most negative, self important idiots I have ever had to listen to. The sort of person that stands at the bar in his local pub ranting at randoms that “Manager X knows less about football than my mother” and “Player Y is rubbish, he wouldn’t get in a pub team”.
Everyone knows someone with completely unfounded, uninformed clueless football opinions like this. The problem is it is highly unlikely they are allowed to broadcast their musings to the entire country on a weekly basis. And they certainly wouldn’t be paid a healthy sum to do so!
He would not be allowed to keep such a high profile position anywhere else other than the BBC.
I had to endure 10 minutes of AG’s high pitches dross on Wednesday night as I drove to the gym. I never thought the day would come where I would be as ecstatic to here Jim Beglin’s voice as I was when I plonked myself on that exercise bike that night. Truly, raging boner ecstatic.
For those that are unaware of quite how bad AG is, you now probably have some perspective.
No doubt you are all wondering what this has to do with betting. Well it is a tenuous link at best I am afraid. So if you were here looking for something to bet on, tough titties.
Well during our brief 10 minute rendezvous, good old “Greeny” told me absolutely nothing about the game in hand, which unlike him I was not fortunate enough to be able to see, but repeatedly banged on about how “awful” Salomon Kalou is.
Apparently Kalou was guilty of missing a Ronnie Ronsentalesque sitter a few minutes earlier. But I wouldn’t know as the commentators are far to important to tell you what has been going on. They have people to educate you know.
Anybody new to the game would have thought Kalou was a overweight Sunday league centre half lumbering around up front at Stamford Bridge the way he was going on.
He informed me that Jose Mourinho seemed to rate him.
He informed me that Avram Grant seemed to rate him.
He informed me that Guus Hiddink seemed to rate him.
He informed me that Carlo Ancelotti seems to rate him.
I am aware Arsene Wenger has made multiple attempts to tempt Kalou away from Stamford Bridge with the lure of regular first team football.
But all of this is clearly irrelevant nonsense. All that matters is that Alan Green, football guru, and one of the greatest football mangers of his generation apparently, thinks he is crap.
The opinions of four of the most successful managers to have graced the Premier League are, undoubtedly, worthless.
Not only is this man a rude, racist (see link below) imbecile, but he also manges to combine an amazing level of arrogance and down right stupidity.
Those that saw the game will know that Kalou went on to score the opening two goals in Chelsea’s 4 – 0 victory. I didn’t get the pleasure of listening to Alan’s verdict on these developments, but then again having listened to him for 15 years, I didn’t need too.
A ropey finish for the first goal, in fact if it hadn’t been for some swirling winds, Kalou would have almost certainly put the ball over the bar. To be honest I am not even really sure why they gave him the goal.
And, the second goal. Well that was diabolical marking. The Madrid full back is a disgrace to the modern game. His a lack of effort is symbolic of the modern game. The Champions League is no doubt only terrorized by such amateurs due to the fact that “non champions” are farcically allowed to play in it.
Wasn’t like that in Alan’s day you know? Champions only. 16 teams. Real football.
Get over it Alan. It’s a good job it isn’t like that these days isn’t it?! Or your beloved Liverpool would still be awaiting their Champions League baptism.
Just to prove I am not just a bitter and twisted Man United, here are a few more members of the Alan Green fan club…
Click here
Back to that tenuous link.
Some of the only people in the world with more stupid footballing opinions than Alan Green are Newspaper “tipsters”. Particularly the free London paper tipsters those of us marooned in the capital have to put up with.
The worst, Steve Mullen of The London Paper, was thankfully put out of his misery this month when the paper went bust. I’m not bloody surprised if any of the big wigs there were following Steve’s picks.
This so called betting experts favourite party trick was quoting accumulator victories of dependent events.
“If you had gone with my predictions this weekend of Rooney to score first, Man United to win 3 – 0 and Man United to win both halves against Bournemouth, £10 on the treble would have seen you win a handsome £2,115!”
You can’t do that you wally. That is a schoolboy error.
So now Londoners are left with the London Lites resident tipster to set us on our way to the promised land of riches.
Their tip for the Chelsea v Athletico Madrid game? A half fit Michael Ballack to score anytime at 2/1.
An unusual choice, I thought to myself, in between whiffs of some (other) sweaty accountant’s armpit on my way home. Do these guys research their choices? Or even put any thought into these things?
I decided to have a look at Zi Keiser’s Champions League goal scoring record for Chelsea. Prior to Wednesday night, 25 games… 17 goals. What a great bet! Only joking. 25 games, 4 goals. Including one Fat Frank-less penalty.
So for the purposes of Wednesday nights game, 25/3. A goal every 8.33 games.
Not ideal for a 2/1 punt is it?!
Fair enough Athletico Madrid are not Real Madrid, well this week I should say Barcelona… oh hang on a minute I mean they are not Rubin Kazan!
But they aren’t exactly one of Europe’s minnows and perennial whipping boys are they?! The 4-0 scoreline was probably as far as even the most optimist Chelsea fan was stretching.
The moral of this War and Peace length diatribe?!
Don’t listen to the newspaper tipsters. Unless four of them gang up on you and threaten to make you listen to Alan Green on 5live if you don’t.
Back to the football next… I promise!
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Following on from my last post, I expect Rachel Adedeji to pick up a bit of public support this week and avoid the bottom two.
She may not be one of the strongest acts in the competition, but she certainly isn’t the worst and has taken the sharp end of the John and Edward stick, so to speak.
As a result I expect her to stay out of the bottom two or, at worst, survive on deadlock.
Not one to go too hard on, but I think Miss Frank getting the heave-ho is the best value bet in the elimination market at current. Lucie Jones is a candidate for a shock inclusion in the bottom 2…
BOTW: 1pt on Miss Frank to be 3rd act eliminated from The X Factor @ 7/2