More due to the impact of the good old British weather than that of Steve Harmison et al, I am going to place a covering bet on the cricket to reduce my exposure to the rain induced draw in the 5th test…

Not a fan of imperfect hedges generally however it has been a week for throwing away the rulebook so far…

BOTW: 1pt on the 5th test to be a draw @ 13/2

Afternoon all.

Well last night was another success, with a further 1.5pt profit in the bag for a 60% return.

I actually feel like I won both bets (although clearly I didn’t!) as I took great satisfaction from my decision to stay away from Wigan at this stage of the season until I have a clearer understanding of their quality and consistency (or lack of as it appears) this season.

Both Celtic (hard working, lacking quality and very little goal threat) and the Gooners (mediocre whilst never getting out of 3rd gear) did exactly as I anticipated for a relatively routine win.

There goes another pointless 26 year old statistic which actual spanned less than 10 games, a lot of which were meaningless… hey ho! They can make something else up for Mr Keys et al to waffle on about no doubt.

I can hear it already… “Celtic have only lost twice at home to English teams in European competitions in their history, and on the second occasion there were no English players in the Arsenal team. So really they should be classed as French opposition.”

Moving on to tonight. I wasn’t going to bet. I really wasn’t. Too many inconsistent teams, tight prices and early season concerns.

Then I decided to back Spurs at Hull at even money. Then I decided against it. Last season they squeezed a 2-1 win away at Hull in the last few minutes, and I remember watching the game and it was a real battle from the first minute to the last.

Then I noticed that Totesport have Newcastle at 5/6 to beat Sheffield Wednesday at St James’ Park. I don’t really understand this and neither to the betting public as they are shorter than this on Betfair (only marginally before anyone silly tries to arbitrage this and gets stung by the Betfair commission…).

This seems too big a price to me for a team that only really got relegated as they thought they were “too good to go down”.

I am aware this is far from the same team with the likes of Owen, Martins and Duff now long gone.

However, I saw their 3-0 win at the weekend and they looked in decent shape. I would go as far as saying that more than half of the starting XI are “Premiership quality” with a few really strong players in there such as Ameobi, Nolan, Barton, Taylor etc.

The same cannot be said for Sheffield Wednesday who again look like being a mediocre mid-table team.

Interesting, whilst eating my lunch and writing this blog, Totesport have cut their price to 4/5 to align closer with the market who are 8/11 generally. Stan James even have the Geordies at 4/6.

Still, I recommend backing the shambles that is Newcastle United at the odds on price of 4/5.

I swear on my life, I never thought I would say those words.

N.B. – If you don’t have a William Hill account you could even take advantage of a free matched bet of £25 using the sign up code F25 and stick the free bet on a long term market to avoid tying up your cash. Not that overly recommend putting £25 on the Geordies unless you earn £50k+…

BOTW: 1.5pt on Newcastle to beat Sheffield Wednesday @ 4/5

I am having a little 1/2pt tinkle tonight on a random little doublé.

Wigan, who I have a little soft spot for, look too big at 3/4 at home against Wolves tonight, who I don’t expect to travel well this season – see Sunderland under Mick McCarthy!

Wigan on the other hand looked much better than expected at Villa Park on opening day and appear to be playing a new brand of football under that Guillem Balague fellow which may turn out to be a bit of a revelation.

They almost pipped Arsenal to be my pick of the day for a more serious wager, however until we see a little more of the new Wigan I determined it a bit too risky.

To bulk up the price on this one I plan on combining it with Gillingham not to lose at Colchester tonight at 11/10.

If you didn’t know, former Colchester manager Paul Lambert and most of the coaching staff packed their bags and f*cked off up the A140 to Norwich this morning having been offered a taste of Delia’s home cooking.

As a result, I expect the team to be pretty pissed off and in a bit of a sorry two-and-eight.

More for fun this one, but still some method to the madness.

Until next time…

BOTW: 1/2pt on a double of Wigan to beat Wolves and Gillingham to avoid defeat at Colchester @ approximately 5/2