So here it is, my first recommendaton since this blog went “live”, and sadly it is not a patriotic one.

Having battled through 5 of the most painful days of Test Cricket in living memory, I cannot believe that the Aussies are still 5/6 to win the Ashes this summer.

Get on this quickly prior to the back-to-back 2nd test next week. It should result in an excellent B2L opportunity for those that like to work themselves into a risk free position.

I shall be back later this week with yet another strong long term market baseball recommendation once I have pondered a little more… for now I am off to see how big a price I can find on a Steve Harmison recall this summer.

Cheerio!

Prior to exposing you to a whole host of great value betting opportunities and giving you the chance to build a small nest egg for your offspring, there are a few things that I feel it is important you are aware of.

I have a number of simple betting principles I have always worked from along with a number of do’s and don’ts.

Fundamental principles

It is fundamental to realise that the common maxim “the bookie always wins” is in principle true. Markets are priced appropriately and if we as punters attempted to bet on a vast number of markets, especially those in which we have no additional insight, then in the long run you are going to lose money sports betting.

However, there is thankfully a “however”. It is my opinion that with a “tight aggressive” approach it is possible to make money from sports betting.

The underlying principle to all bets I place is that I believe the wager has a “positive expected value” (“+EV”). Thus if the same wager was to be placed an infinite number of times, at the given price, then the cumulative result would be a positive cash inflow.

As a result, I only place bets where, in my opinion, the price on offer does not reflect the probability of success and the associated risk. This generally only happens in the following circumstances:

1) The market is flat out priced wrong by the bookmaker. It is rare but it happens

2) An event is mispriced as a result of “old prices” remaining available online that do not reflect subsequent developments. This is the most common way to make money from sports betting, and provides a number of “back-to-lay” (“B2L”) opportunities which can result in risk free profit. An example of this is my each-way wager on Micheal Owen to be top scorer in the 2009-2010 Premier League at 66/1 which was made after it was evident that Owen’s shock move to Manchester United was going to be completed. All major bookmakers subsequently repriced the event to somewhere in the region of 20/1 the following day.

3) I feel I am more informed than the bookmaker. Obviously this is again an infrequent occurrence, however there are a number of times that I feel this has been the case in Baseball betting markets as this is a particular area in which I have detailed specialist knowledge. An example of this was my wager on a MLB pitcher to lose 17 games in 2009. This has happened every single season for the last 14 years however was priced at 5/6…

4) There is an “intangible” factor which I do not believe has been priced into the event. Again, rare but it does happen.

Betting do’s and don’ts

Do not bet with money you cannot afford to lose. EVER.

Do bet using a bankroll rather than using funds from your bank account on an ad hoc basis. Although this may be difficult in practice due to the number of different bookmakers you may use, track all your wagers in a spreadsheet with associated P&L to create a virtual bankroll at a minimum.

Do not bet “for the sake of betting” unless it is very small stakes in a social environment. And if you do, do so safe in the knowledge you will probably lose!

Do ensure that all bets are researched thoroughly with all potential outcomes and associated risks considered.

Do not get lazy during a winning streak, start increasing betting stakes or place bets without thorough research. Treat every bet as if the stake is your last piece of disposable income.

Do “back yourself” during a losing streak and have confidence in your methodology and that the law of averages, variance and regression will eventually work in your favour once again.

Do not bet more than 5% of your bankroll except in very special circumstances. Never bet more than 10% of your bankroll at any time.

That’s all folks… good luck and happy betting!